Americans’ pessimism about the economy cuts across political lines | US economy

Donald Trump is not making America feel good again.

Nine months into the second Trump administration, Americans are feeling pretty crummy. More than half – 53% – think the economy is getting worse, according to the latest survey conducted by Harris for the Guardian. That’s barely better than the 58% who thought the situation was getting worse in late April, when financial markets were still reeling from the president’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. About 60% think the cost of living has gotten worse since the start of the year; 47% say the job market is worse.

There is of course a bias in the answers. Only 24% of Republicans think the economy is getting worse, compared to 60% of independents and 67% of Democrats. But there are worrying signs that bad vibes are seeping into the blood of the Maga base. Half of rural Americans, who voted for Trump by a staggering 69% to 29% margin last November, have become more pessimistic about the state of the economy since the start of the summer.

Bad vibes begin to pollute their aspirations. More than a third (38%) of rural Americans say they are more pessimistic about their ability to achieve the American dream than they were a few months ago, while only 25% are more optimistic. By contrast, urban Americans – who Trump said should be cowering under their beds, desperately waiting for the National Guard to save their cities from crime and poverty – became more optimistic than pessimistic, by a margin of 41% to 28%.

Pessimism also beats optimism 38% to 26% among Americans with less than a four-year college degree, another stronghold of the Maga base, who voted for the president by a margin of 56% to 42%. Americans with at least a bachelor’s degree feel sunnier: 43% say they are more optimistic and only 26% more pessimistic about their chances.

The Guardian poll agrees with other sources, such as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which shows a sharp deterioration since the start of the year. It also poses something of a conundrum, because American gloom is in tension with Americans’ immediate economic reality.

Although it has slowed somewhat compared to last year, the American economy is growing steadily. Although slightly higher than last year, the unemployment rate remains slightly above 4%, close to its historic lows.

The most striking contrast is that between the pessimism of Americans and the meteoric performance of the stock market. Despite Trump’s destabilizing effect on financial markets, the S&P 500 index is up about 13% this year, driven by a surge in investment and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). This gives a nice boost to household balance sheets. Yet 37% of respondents to the Guardian poll said their financial security was deteriorating, while only 25% said it was improving.

Some commentators suggest that the disconnect between a technology-driven stock market boom and Americans’ financial gloom could be due to the nature of the technology behind it. During the dot-com bubble boom, the previous era of technology-driven financial extravagance, people were excited about all the new things the Internet would bring. Today, Silicon Valley’s message to the great unwashed is that AI is coming for all our jobs, and perhaps for human civilization itself.

I would argue for more mundane explanations. To begin with, the prosperity we are seeing is driven by a very small group of companies – seven, to be precise – who are investing hand in hand to develop ever more powerful AI models. Beyond these seven countries, business investment is weak. Although unemployment has not increased, employment has barely increased in recent months.

And then there is Trump. His erratic policies have dealt powerful blows to significant parts of the economy. China responded to the barrage of U.S. tariffs by cutting off access to rare earth minerals and significantly reducing its purchases of soybeans from the United States, hurting farmers in the Midwest. Additionally, the Trump Labor Department warns that the immigration crackdown is creating labor shortages in fields that threaten the food supply.

Beyond policies, Trump’s particular affinity for stoking outrage and resentment certainly can’t help. Not a day goes by without the president convincing his fellow citizens that they are living in hell: foreign countries are abusing Americans by selling them cheap products. Migrant workers sow desolation in their communities. DEI. liberal politicians and universities brainwash them. Democratic-run cities, which is to say most of them, are crime pits. And the economy is being destroyed by a recalcitrant Fed that doesn’t carry out the president’s orders.

One might expect a rational politician who promised to close the U.S. border to take a victory lap and happily talk about his success in reducing the number of immigrants to a historic low. (A sensible politician might downplay the importance of fighting immigration: according to the Guardian poll, only 11% of Americans think immigration poses the biggest risk to the economy. That’s even lower than the 12% who think income inequality is the biggest threat.)

This would not fit Trump’s style, however. He must continue to ratchet up the pressure, repeatedly asserting that the United States is under siege by murderers from abroad. He is sending the National Guard into the streets of Democratic cities and threatening to deploy more troops on American soil. Given the mood in the air, the average American could be forgiven for taking a dim view.