2026 March Madness men’s field predictions
RULES
ESPN’s Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA Tournament field, just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including schedule strength and other indicators throughout the season, including NET data and team sheets similar to those available to the NCAA, in his field projections. Visit the NCAA website for a better understanding of the NCAA selection criteria.
Support for 68 teams
The 68-team field is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. While the 2021 field is made up of 68 teams, there will be some key differences from previous years.
The biggest adjustment from a normal year is, of course, holding the entire NCAA Tournament at one site. This eliminates the need for geographic considerations when seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League’s decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.
Support for 48 teams
In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field to 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter still receiving one revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first round games per region – 5v12, 6v11, 7v10 and 8v9 – taking place without fans on the higher seed’s home court.
To minimize travel, first round pairings will be guided as much as possible by geography. And the reduced field means that only 32 teams compete on the central site. All participants must post a lecture recording of at least .500 – the “Lunardi Rule” – for general consideration.
Support for 16 teams
In this projection, the committee selects and ranks the top 16 teams available. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.
In order to maintain a certain national balance, participation in the conference is limited to four teams. And no region may have more than one team from the same conference.
