2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for NCAA Tournament championship game Monday

The final game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is here and the college basketball world will set its sights on Indianapolis Monday night for a fantastic finale as No. 1 seed Michigan takes on No. 2 seed UConn for the national championship. With a combined 70 wins on the season, both teams have been among the top picks to compete for a title for much of the season and now have 40 minutes to accomplish that destiny.

For Dusty May and Michigan, a victory would be a warning sign to the sport of what is to come from the Wolverines under his leadership. A Michigan program operating at peak efficiency can be one of the most disruptive forces in a college basketball landscape that can often become familiar with its main characters. But teams like Houston, Florida, Duke, Arizona, Kansas or Purdue aren’t the ones still playing, and one has the feeling, seeing how Michigan went through this rapid turnaround in May, that it has already reached a level to be taken seriously on a regular basis. A win would also end a 26-year drought for the Big Ten, which hasn’t seen a current member win it all since Michigan State in 2000 (interestingly, in Indianapolis).

But the only main character in college basketball still playing and standing in the way of this breakthrough for Michigan and the Big Ten is UConn.

Dan Hurley is chasing his third ring in four years and the program is on pace to win its seventh national championship since 1999. That would leave UConn with the third most titles all-time, behind UCLA (11) and Kentucky (8). And it’s worth noting that the Huskies have won all seven of their championships since UCLA won the most recent in 1995.

Yet this UConn team, which exemplifies elite performances in the NCAA Tournament, finds itself as an underdog in the national title game, a stage the Huskies have yet to lose. This is a testament to how great Michigan is and how well-built, complete and well-coached the Wolverines have been all season and in this tournament.

The health of key players on both teams threatened to put a damper on the match. Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg was injured in the first half of the Wolverines’ national semifinal win over Arizona, but returned to action and indicated his intention to play in the title game after receiving treatment on his knee and ankle between games. UConn also has a major injury of note, with Solo Ball suffering a foot injury in the win over Illinois. Ball was seen with a boot during media availability Sunday, but neither player was listed on their school’s initial NCAA player availability report indicating they would play in Monday’s game. For title contenders, the phrase “next man up” becomes crucial in the pursuit of a title, but which team can make the most of their walking wounded or supplement their production will have an advantage in a game that could be decided at the margins.

Now that the stage is set, let’s move on to the choices. Since we’re accustomed to offering multiple picks from full tournament slates in this series, there will be multiple angles to entertain for this one remaining matchup in the 2025-26 season. But in addition to thoughts on the spread and total, we have included a more traditional approach with direct and counter-spread picks via our Expert Picks panel.

National Championship Preview: Key trends to know ahead of Michigan vs. UConn NCAA Tournament title clash

Isaac Trotter

(1) Michigan vs. (2) UConn

8:49 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live

The math says Michigan but the vibe says UConn finds a way. The Huskies’ resilience despite injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes Dan Hurley’s call for his teams to show championship heart in the postseason. The Huskies will face a tough opponent on the Michigan front line, but they enter the game having faced another strong team in Illinois and passed the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament featured three single-digit Big Ten seeds, with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong defensive performance against all three teams. The key for UConn will be getting into those final minutes in just a few possessions, because if this pack of dogs smells blood, they’ll be ready to deliver on tight deadline. Michigan could win this game by 10-15 points in a crowning moment for Dusty May and the Big Ten, but if it’s close, I like the Huskies to not only cover the spread, but close it out by cutting down the nets.

When it comes to total points scored, the trends favor games with fewer points by the time we get to Monday night’s national championship. The under went 6-2 in the last eight national title games, which could be as much a reflection of late-round fatigue as the Final Four football stadium setting. But the reasoning here focuses much more on the matchup, where, as we mentioned earlier, UConn has had excellent game plans and executed three of its last four tournament opponents and Michigan has been absolutely stifling in its recent wins over Tennessee in the Elite Eight and Arizona in the Final Four. Any type of shooting regression for UConn from 3-point range will lower the output after the Huskies knocked down 12 3-pointers against Illinois, and of course any limitation for Yaxel Lendeborg also lowers Michigan’s offensive ceiling. Pick: UConn ML +240, under 144.5