2026 NFL mock draft: Top 10 pick predictions off free agency

Money is flowing into the NFL, as teams begin to make free agency deals, re-signings and big-name trades. And in turn, those moves — and in some cases, non-moves — have affected how the 2026 NFL Draft might play out. For example, the Chiefs signing running back Kenneth Walker III means they likely won’t target Jeremiah Love at No. 9.

So let’s review the changing team needs, potential targets and potential strategies of the franchises expected to be in the top 10 in April’s first round, basing our predictions on all the moves we’ve seen so far. Keep in mind that many free agent signings are still to come as the new league year begins on Wednesday. Consider this an instant reaction to the free agency frenzy as we begin to get a clearer picture of what could happen on April 23 in Pittsburgh.

Here’s a look at how signings, trades, cuts and departures could impact each team picking the No. 1 through No. 10 positions — and which prospect makes the most sense to fill the holes on the roster. I also answered some important questions for teams picking outside the top 10 who saw their draft needs change after Monday’s moves.

Access a team in the top 10:
ARI | CIN | KEY | KC | BT
NO | NYG | NYJ | TEN | WSH
Questions about the rest of the first round

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

There is a choice that will not change this week, this month, next month… you understand. Mendoza will be the No. 1 selection and will provide the Raiders with a beacon of hope around whom to build their franchise in the future. He is a precise, muscular and strong quarterback who responded to all the challenges of Indiana’s national championship. The Raiders strengthened the center position in front of their future rookie QB with a three-year, $81 million contract for Tyler Linderbaum.

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

The Jets have maximized their cap space so far, trading for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and signing the underrated Joseph Ossai to a three-year deal. They also reached deals with Kingsley Enagbare and 37-year-old linebacker Demario Davis.

But the work is far from done to address a weak pass rush, which still needs young talent. No FBS player had more sacks in 2025 than Bailey (14.5), who was a dominant force in his lone season at Texas Tech. He has caused a total of eight fumbles over the past two seasons and is one of the most violent disruptors in the class.

Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

The Cardinals could certainly address the offensive line with this pick, as right tackle is a primary need with Jonah Williams and Kelvin Beachum still around as free agents. But by choosing such a level, it reminds us that the best way to rebuild a roster and maintain success is to be disciplined in writing value. Reese, who has as much upside as any defensive player in this class, would give Arizona a building block in its front seven.

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Much of this offseason for Tennessee will be focused on improving the supporting cast around second-year quarterback Cam Ward. Signing wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson was a good start, but adding Tate would solidify that commitment. He is a sure-footed, nuanced and detailed route runner who averaged over 17 yards per reception during his final college season. Tate is one of the top pro prospects and would carve out an important role for himself in Tennessee from the start.

Caleb Downs, South, Ohio State

A busy start to free agency for the Giants included signing former Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to a three-year contract. That pick for me ultimately came down to Downs and college teammate Sonny Styles, but the addition of Edmunds reduced the need for a linebacker at that spot. Downs’ three years in college, during which he handled all manner of responsibilities and communications, reinforces why his upside could be so important to New York’s defense.

Francis Mauigoa, occupational therapist, Miami

The Browns traded for Tytus Howard, which could be a deterrent in recruiting Mauigoa. Howard’s best position is right tackle, which is where Mauigoa played throughout his Miami career.

That said, the Browns have won eight games over the past two seasons and clearly know their offensive line needs work, as evidenced by the three-year, $49.5 million deal for guard Zion Johnson. I would still advocate adding Mauigoa, who is one of the most stable players in the class, and figuring out the offensive line construction later.

Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame

The Commanders landed one of the top free agent pass rushers in Odafe Oweh, which checks the box for their most pressing need and allows general manager Adam Peters to take my No. 2 prospect in this class. We can debate the merits of taking a running back early and in perpetuity, but Love is a dynamic dual-threat player who would instantly energize what was a mid-range backfield last season. Teaming Love up with Jayden Daniels could be a lot of fun.

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Miller: ‘Jeremiah Love is the best football player in this class’

Matt Miller and Ben Solak discuss what makes Jeremiah Love the best football player in the 2026 NFL draft class.

Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Longtime starter Demario Davis returned to the Jets in free agency, and his reliability and durability will be missed in New Orleans. He started at least 16 games in his eight seasons with the Saints, who can now turn to one of the most distinctive players in the class in terms of styles. The safety-turned-linebacker has rocked the entire football world with his combined performances, but he’s more than just a coaching star. Styles has excellent range, a quick release in the running game and strong coverage instincts.

Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

The Chiefs secondary will be reshaped in 2026, as the team’s top two cornerbacks (Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson) are now with the Rams. Delane had an excellent 2025 season at LSU, showing strong technique in man coverage and timing pass breakup opportunities. He finished with two interceptions and 11 passes defended.

Delane didn’t run a 40-yard dash at the combine, which didn’t help quell some questions in the recruiting community regarding his straight-line speed. But he makes up for any potential lack of speed with a fundamentally solid coverage game.

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

The Bengals moved into free agency at two key spots, agreeing to three-year deals with edge rusher Boye Mafe and safety Bryan Cook. But that shouldn’t be enough to satisfy the team’s pass-rush need, which was a major problem in 2025 (the Bengals were tied for last in win rate). Additionally, Joseph Ossai has already left for the Jets and Trey Hendrickson will not be back in 2026.

Bain is a tenacious and powerful player who overcomes his lack of length through brute force at the point of attack. He had 9.5 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss and 71 pressures in 2025.

Big Questions for Choices #11-32

Which first-round pick outside the top 10 is the most interesting right now?

The most recent one that was traded, as the Raiders now hold the 14th seed after trading Maxx Crosby to the Ravens. Is Las Vegas working to replace some of Crosby’s impact with a passer or further bolster the offense around Mendoza? Logical offensive targets would include: Utah offensive lineman Spencer Fano, Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson, USC receiver Makai Lemon and Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling.

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Orlovsky: Linderbaum signs best thing Raiders can do for Mendoza

Dan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager explain why signing Raiders C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza.

Given what we’ve seen in free agency, which first-round pick beyond the top 10 are you most certain of?

The true answer: None. But based on what we’ve seen so far, it’s hard for me to imagine the Lions passing on a left tackle if Freeling or Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor reaches them at 17th overall. Freeling is rated higher and I think has as much upside as any offensive tackle in the class, while Proctor has the power of a forklift. Former Detroit left tackle Taylor Decker has requested a release from the team ahead of his 11th season.

If you had to make a prediction right now, which team will draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson?

I’m joining my colleague Jordan Reid’s parade and predicting the Cardinals will move in favor of Simpson. With Kyler Murray set to be released, Arizona’s search for a new QB is officially on; the Cardinals also potentially showed their cards by adding Gardner Minshew on a one-year deal as a depth/deck option. Taking Simpson at No. 3 would be a huge reach for me, but Arizona could trade up in the 20s somewhere and land him – much like what the Giants did to get Jaxson Dart last year.