2026 Valero Texas Open odds, predictions, field, favorites: PGA picks, best bets from 10,000 simulations
A two-event leg in Texas concludes this week with the 2026 Valero Texas Open beginning Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET at TPC San Antonio – The Oaks Course. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both out this week ahead of a major match, but there is still a strong Valero Texas Open field headlined by top 10 OWGR players such as Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley. The latest 2026 Valero Texas Open odds via FanDuel list Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg as the +1500 co-favorites. Russell Henley (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+1800) and Robert MacIntyre (+1800) are among the other favorites. Collin Morikawa and Gary Woodland both retired from the field.
Before locking in picks for the 2026 Valero Texas Open, entering a Texas Open contest, or making PGA DFS picks on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to check out the golf predictions and projected rankings from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting choices that have always been extremely profitable.
That same model also won 16 majors over the weekend, including the 2025 Masters – its fourth Masters in a row – as well as last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed their sports betting choices could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
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Now that the 2026 Valero Texas Open field is locked, the model has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results have been surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one-time contests or Texas Open DFS lineups.
Valero Texas Open 2026 Predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2026 Texas Open: It projects Henley to barely crack the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. Henley has yet to finish in the top 5 this year, so the model is not ready to project him near the top of the rankings. He finished fourth in this event in 2024, but did not play in 2025 and he finished T52 and missed the cut in his other two Texas Open appearances. See who else disappears here.
Another surprise: the model projects Sepp Straka among the top 10 candidates, although he is not in the first group of favorites at +2700. The 32-year-old Austrian has finished in the top 20 in four of his last five events, including a strong T8 finish at the Players Championship last time out. He struggled in his first two appearances in this tournament, but turned a corner last year, finishing T22 after a strong weekend, so the model likes his value this week. See who else to choose here.
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How to make choices for the 2026 Valero Texas Open
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one at 30-1 who is making a superb run for the title. You can only see the model choices here.
Who will win the 2026 Texas Open and which long shots will surprise the golf world? Check out the 2026 Texas Open odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the projected rankings, all from the model that has won 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
Valero Texas Open 2026 Odds and Favorites
Get all the Valero Texas Open 2026 picks, best bets and predictions here.
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Tommy Fleetwood +1500
Ludvig Aberg +1500
Russell Henley +1600
Jordan Spieth +1800
Robert MacIntyre +1800
Si Woo Kim +2200
Sepp Straka +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Maverick McNealy +2700
Michael Thorbjörnsen +3000
Rickie Fowler +3000
JJ Spain +3300
Denis McCarthy +3300
Alex Noren +3300
Keith Mitchell +3500
Ryo Hisatsune +3500
Johnny Keefer +4000
Nick Taylor +5500
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +4500
Thorbjørn Olesen +4500
Richard Hoey +4500
Marco Penge +5000
Alex Smalley +6000
Tony Finau +6000
Zalatoris +6000
Brian Harman +6000
Jordan Smith +6500
Stéphane Jaeger +6500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7000
Austin Smotherman +7000
Davis Thompson +7000
Matt Wallace +7000
Max McGreevy +7000
JT Poston +7000
Mac Meissner +7000
