It’s not in your head. Fear drives decision making.

We are all guilty of putting off that big decision because our brains can’t stop focusing on the potential negative outcomes. Dread Shapes Our Decision-Making, New Research Published in Journal Cognitive sciences explores why presenting these negative scenarios affects us more than possible positive outcomes.

The team from the University of Bath in England and the University of Waterloo in Canada analyzed data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). This long-scale survey of around 10,000 households in the UK measures several economic, social and psychological variables. The team looked at about 14,000 people between 1991 and 2024, and tracked their emotional reactions to real-world economic choices, including investing, changing jobs, or making healthcare decisions.

They found that this emotional imbalance, which involves focusing more on potential bad outcomes rather than good ones, plays a central role in shaping economic behavior. Survey participants who experience stronger negative than positive anticipatory emotions are significantly more likely to avoid risk. They found that the emotional impact of fear is more than six times stronger than the potential happiness they would feel from anticipating equivalent gains. Anxiety also makes people less likely to wait for delayed positive outcomes, such as a return on investment, even when that patience may lead to greater rewards.

“Simply put, the emotional pain of anticipating a loss of £10 (about $13) is much greater than savoring the thought of a gain of £10,” said Chris Dawson, a study co-author at the University of Bath who researches economics and decision-making. “This imbalance determines how much risk people are willing to take and how long they are willing to wait, which can influence decisions in daily life, from money and career to health and well-being. »

Additionally, the study confirms that when results manifest, the losses seem greater than the gains. The emotional shock of a loss was about twice as strong as that of an equivalent gain. According to the team, this research advances a new psychological theory that links risk and time preferences. This could help explain why those who are more risk averse also tend to be more impatient.

“We find that risk avoidance and impatience are psychologically linked,” added study co-author and University of Waterloo psychologist Dr. Sam Johnson. “People try to avoid choices that may have negative consequences and also prefer the outcomes to be resolved sooner, to minimize the emotional burden they experience – the fear of anticipating bad news. »

The team also found a lot of variation between individuals. Some people experience these anticipatory emotions before making a decision much more vividly than others, which helps explain why attitudes toward risk and patience differ so widely. Notably, the effects of anticipated fear remained significant even after accounting for personality traits, mental health, income, and education.

The authors believe the findings have implications for understanding financial decision-making, long-term planning, health choices and other real-world behaviors.

“The study helps explain why people often postpone or avoid choices that are objectively beneficial in the long term,” Dawson said. “For example, individuals may delay or avoid a medical test if results take a long time to arrive. Even when screening reduces health risks, the fear of waiting for potentially bad news may discourage testing. Likewise, long waits in areas such as investment decisions may deter engagement simply by prolonging the emotional burden of uncertainty.”

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