Could Israel’s bombing trigger a nuclear accident in Iran?

Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites raise fears of a harmful radioactive accident, including the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA) – but the experts declared New scientist that the risks are minimal, despite the radiological and chemical contamination reports in a nuclear enrichment installation.

Peter Bryant at the University of Liverpool in the United Kingdom says that the words “nuclear” and “radiation” create an understandable fear, but that there has been no external leaks so far despite the in-depth bombardments.

Iran has a nuclear energy program that dates back to the 1950s and has sometimes had a nuclear weapon development program. The country has undertaken to submit to IEA inspections to demonstrate that its electrical installations are not used to create weapons, but earlier this month, the agency has published a report accusing Iran of not having complied with its obligations under non-proliferation rules. Essentially, traces of uranium have been found in factories which suggested that a program of secret nuclear weapons continued.

Israel started strikes only a few days after the release of the report, against the Iranian installations used to enrich uranium. This element occurs naturally as a mixture of three isotopes, but the enriched version has a higher proportion of one of them, uranium-235, which is useful in the two nuclear reactors to produce electricity and for nuclear weapons. Due to this potential double use, Iran has repeatedly committed to restricting its enrichment activities and is a signatory to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, which means that it should not try to create nuclear weapons.

Philipp Bluek at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California said that the IAEA report, according to Iran already has more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched 60% – which is sufficient in its current form for several raw nuclear weapons – and that Israeli intelligence agencies believe that there are no more non -declareds at AIEA. Even 60% of uranium is much purer than that necessary for the fuel of the power plant, alluding that Iran has indeed ambitions to become a nuclear power.

Iran has two enrichment sites, Ford Fuel Enrichment Factory (FFEP) and Natanz’s nuclear installation. Israel bombed Natanz, leading to leaks of internal radiation to the factory, according to the AIAA, but that seems to have been contained without a sign of external leaks.

Fordow, on the other hand, remains in service because it is so far underground that only powerful American bombs are likely to destroy it. US President Donald Trump is currently asking for the opportunity to provide such support to Israel.

Arak’s heavy water reactor was also bombed, but it had never been ordered and contained no radioactive material. If it had been completed, it could finally have converted uranium into plutonium, another material which can be used to make nuclear weapons. The Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center has also been attacked, as are several missile sites which could possibly launch nuclear weapons once they have been created or launch other conventional weapons attacks against Israel.

Bleek stresses that fresh uranium, regardless of the level of enrichment, represents a “very modest” health risk. “You should have a lot in your body, as uranium minors did when they put uranium dust in their lungs, so that it has a significant impact,” he said.

For this reason, a bombed enrichment factory represents relatively little danger outside the immediate area, explains Bryant. And because Iran has built them deeply underground – to destroy them harder – all the benefits would be even more contained. “You can hold uranium fuel in your bare hand and it will do nothing,” explains Bryant. “Unless you physically eat this uranium, you will not have a problem.”

If a functional nuclear reactor has been bombed, however – in particular if its fuel had been used for months – there will have been an accumulation of “unpleasant fission by -products” – much more dangerous radioactive isotopes. If these escaped a plant, it could create a Chernobyl or Fukushima type scenario, warns Bleek.

Bryant says that this type of leak is practically impossible, because the conceptions of the reactors have advanced to the point that they can contain radiation even under heavy bombing. In addition, power plants are not a vital part of a nuclear weapon program and are probably not targeted by Israel, he says. The only Iran operational nuclear power plant in Bushehr has not yet been targeted.

Despite the scientific experts who say New scientist The fact that the attacks have a minimum risk, the director general of the IAEA, General Rafael Grossi, said at a press conference earlier this week that they may indeed harm – the second warning of this type he had done in recent years, following the nuclear power plant crisis by Russia in Ukraine after his invasion of the country.

“I have said on several occasions that nuclear installations should never be attacked, whatever the context or circumstances, as it could harm people and the environment,” he said.