SpaceX Could Go Public in 2026. What Does That Mean for Space Exploration?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX may be about to go public: the company, which nearly went bankrupt in the 2000s, is mulling an initial public offering (IPO) that would value it at $1.5 trillion. This move could bring tens of billions of dollars to SpaceX, but it’s not just about money: the future of space exploration is also at stake.

SpaceX is an integral part of many critical missions with NASA and the Pentagon, including transporting crews and cargo to the International Space Station, putting satellites into orbit and playing a key role in NASA’s plan to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028. Its Starlink satellite internet service is booming. And let’s not forget that the company has its own long-term vision for landing on Mars, or even colonizing it.

An IPO would put SpaceX in the company of older traditional aerospace heavyweights, such as Boeing and Northrop Grumman, and industry newcomers, such as Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace. Still, SpaceX’s plans are surprising, experts say.

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“The fact that this might be a big, all-encompassing SpaceX IPO is a bit of a surprise,” says Matthew Weinzierl, a researcher at Harvard Business School who studies the private space sector. There was a feeling that Musk might take Starlink, a SpaceX subsidiary, public because it brings in a lot of money, but not that he would do it with the entire company, Weinzierl says.

If SpaceX goes public, it will mean more control, more shareholder interest and – perhaps most important for space science – more investment to support its research and development work. “SpaceX has been a major driver of a lot of what we’re seeing in space now,” both positive and negative, says Aaron Boley, a planetary scientist at the University of British Columbia and co-founder of the Outer Space Institute, a network of space experts.

An IPO could bring an influx of capital to fund new projects, Weinzierl says, such as building solar-powered orbital data centers to support artificial intelligence, perhaps including that of Musk’s own AI company, xAI. Musk suggested it in October.

New money could also support SpaceX in its work with NASA and the US Department of Defense. The company’s contracts include billions of dollars to transport NASA astronauts and cargo to and from space, a $255 million deal to launch NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope in spring 2027 and billions of dollars to place defense satellites in Earth orbit as part of the National Security Space Launch Program. And in late October, the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX was close to securing a $2 billion contract to work on President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense project, for which it would develop satellites to track missiles and aircraft.

Considering that NASA and the Pentagon are already heavily dependent on the commercial space industry — and particularly SpaceX — the IPO may not change the company’s relationship with either agency much, says Clayton Swope, deputy director of the aerospace security project at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. And SpaceX may have another government ally in recently confirmed NASA administrator Jared Isaacman. He flew into space with Space for two missions: Inspiration4 And Polar Dawn.

SpaceX’s potential IPO comes at a time of serious uncertainty for NASA. Doubt surrounds the future of the agency’s Artemis lunar program, which is supposed to land astronauts on the lunar surface in 2028. SpaceX won NASA’s contract to build and operate its human landing system using SpaceX’s Starship megarocket as part of the Artemis III And Artemis IV missions. (Jeff Bezos’ rival company Blue Origin received the contract to Artemis V.)

Again Artemis III– this will be the first time that astronauts have set foot on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972 – was delayed several times, in part because of problems with SpaceX’s still-in-development spacecraft. To support Artemis, SpaceX plans to launch several spacecraft capable of refueling into orbit and send a modified Starship lander to the lunar surface. But the company has yet to demonstrate that the rocket is capable of all this. SpaceX now risks losing the contract altogether: Citing growing competition with China, US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, then acting head of NASA, reopened competition for the contract. Artemis III contract in October.

What all this means for potential investors is that buying a stake in SpaceX comes with risks, especially given the multiple incidents the company has faced with Starship, not to mention Musk’s controversial policies and business practices.

“If you participate in a SpaceX IPO, you buy into their way of doing business, which has explosive failures as well as spectacular successes,” Swope says. Yet even though SpaceX’s visions for the Moon and Mars may or may not come true, the company continues to attract top talent in addition to investor interest.

A SpaceX IPO would also mean shareholders would have a say in company decisions, which could create tension with Musk, who “doesn’t like” checks on his authority, according to Wendy Whitman Cobb, a professor of strategy and security studies at Air University’s School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Planetary scientist Boley hopes shareholders will hold SpaceX accountable for its environmental and safety record: The company has many “dual-use” spacecraft that serve both civilian and military customers. And with nearly 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, the risk of collision – and possible showers of debris on Earth – also increases.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Musk and SpaceX executives will pull off an IPO.

“Things seem to be changing quickly in Washington and in the space community. This may not be a done deal,” Swope says.