The voting bloc that could swing Maine’s Senate race: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the political officea daily newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman explains why Maine’s leading Democratic Senate candidates are increasingly focusing on one group of voters. Plus, Kristen Welker delves deeper into all the uncertainty that still surrounds the Iran war for another month.

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—Adam Wollner

Janet Mills and Graham Platner battle for women voters in key Maine Senate race

By Bridget Bowman

Governor. Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner are fighting for women voters as Maine’s crucial Senate race heats up, underscoring how decisive the group could be in both June’s Democratic primary and November’s general election.

Mills and Platner in recent days launched television ads narrated by women and staged duels highlighting the women who support their campaigns. Platner’s campaign has also largely targeted women with online ads: 80% of its ad spending on Google this year has targeted only female voters, according to the platform’s ad tracking system.

The latest missive came Thursday as Mills released another TV ad targeting Platner over online posts in 2013 in which he downplayed sexual assault. Platner, a veteran, disavowed the posts and attributed them to his struggles with post-traumatic stress disorder following his service in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mills and Platner vie to take on the Republican senator. Susan Collins in the fall, in a must-win race for Democrats in their quest for four seats and take control of the Senate. Collins was able to survive in this blue-leaning state in part because of his appeal to female voters. In her last reelection race in 2020, she narrowly won voters by 3 points, even as president. Donald Trump lost them by 23 points, according to the NBC News exit poll.

A new Emerson College poll of likely Democratic primary voters, released yesterday, finds Platner leading Mills by nearly 30 points, with 13 percent of voters undecided. Platner had an advantage of 18 points among the women and 41 points among the men.

“It’s hard to imagine winning the Maine primary without performing well among women, and especially older women,” said David Farmera Democratic strategist from Maine who is not involved in the Senate race. He noted that women over 65 tend to make up a majority of primary voters in Maine.

Polls indicate that women, a key part of the Democratic coalition as a whole, are particularly motivated as the midterm elections approach.

A recent national NBC News poll found that 67 percent of women gave themselves a rating of 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale measuring their interest in the election, compared with 61 percent of men. The survey also found that women favored Democrats in the battle for Congress by 7 points, while men favored Republicans by 9 points.

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Uncertainty hangs over the war in Iran after it has lasted for a month

Analysis by Kristen Welker

As the war in Iran has dragged on for a month, there are more questions than answers about the largest military conflict in which the United States has participated in more than 20 years.

That’s the kind of war, president Donald Trump He promised during the election campaign that he would not get involved. And he is now running up against his self-imposed clock, repeatedly estimating that the war could last four to six weeks.

Administration officials continue to emphasize that the bombing campaign achieved major progress in degrading Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities, while dealing a blow to the country’s top leadership. But Democrats and even some Republicans on Capitol Hill are expressing frustration over the lack of clarity on military goals, the broader strategy and the exit plan, as NBC News reports that Trump is considering the possibility of sending thousands of ground troops to Iran as part of a bid to end the war.

The diplomatic route is even more vague. While the president extended Iran’s deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and told reporters yesterday that the two sides were having “very substantive talks,” Iranian state media reports that the country has “responded negatively” to U.S. proposals, as hard-liners appear to fill the void caused by the deaths of so many of Iran’s key leaders.

Amid all this uncertainty, one thing remains relatively clear: Polls show that Americans are skeptical of war and concerned about prices. Several surveys this week showed Trump’s approval rating at or near its lowest level since his second term.

All of this only increases pressure on U.S. negotiators — which the president said Tuesday include a special envoy. Steve Wittkoffhis son-in-law Jared Kushnersecretary of state Marco Rubio and vice president J.D. Vance.

As the war drags on, an Iranian activist and journalist Masih Alinejad issued a warning yesterday on “Meet the Press NOW”: “No one in the Islamic Republic understands the language of diplomacy, because the Islamic Republic only understands the language of force. »

Join me this Sunday for “Meet the Press,” where I will speak with the senator. James LankfordR-Okla., and Sen. Cory BookerDN.J., about the war and the closure of the Department of Homeland Security.

Follow live updates on the Iran war →

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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