Florida’s redistricting fight puts Ron DeSantis back in the Republican spotlight

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Ron DeSantis was once the future of the Republican Party, a proven conservative, twice elected governor of Florida. Then Donald Trump ran over him on his way back to the White House.

Now, more than two years after DeSantis ended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump, the governor is returning to the national spotlight — at least for this week. He’s pushing state lawmakers to redraw Florida’s congressional map as part of a coast-to-coast redistricting battle ahead of November’s midterm elections. His proposal would make it easier for Republicans to win four additional seats, matching Democrats’ potential gains in last week’s Virginia referendum.

As DeSantis’ second term draws to a close, the special legislative session that begins Tuesday is one of his last opportunities to remind Republicans that he could one day lead the party. But many risks also await the 47-year-old governor.

Some Republicans fear a new map could backfire and make it easier for Democrats to win seats. Additionally, DeSantis wants lawmakers to strengthen artificial intelligence regulations and ease vaccine requirements, two proposals that were previously blocked in Tallahassee.

Trump may not be constitutionally allowed to seek a third term in 2028, but that doesn’t mean there’s a clear path for DeSantis, who would likely face Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a Republican primary.

“The window for Ron seems reasonably narrow at this point,” said Whit Ayres, who served as DeSantis’ pollster during his first campaign for governor in 2018.

DeSantis, for his part, adheres to the national fight. When House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., last week challenged Florida Republicans to hold their special session, the governor fought back with the kind of aggression he displayed early in his failed White House bid.

“I will pay for you to come to Florida and campaign,” DeSantis said of Jeffries. “I’ll put you up at the Florida governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing.”

DeSantis unveiled his proposed map to Fox News on Monday before it was widely circulated among lawmakers. He argued that the 2020 census had a negative impact on the state’s population, making it necessary to redraw the boundaries.

The governor’s map, if approved, would reshape districts in Democratic areas around Orlando and Tampa Bay, while condensing Democratic voters into fewer South Florida districts. The changes could cost Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, among others, their seats.

Current maps give a 20-8 Republican advantage in 2024. DeSantis’ version would aim for a 24-4 advantage.

DeSantis first announced the special session in January, months after Trump began pushing Republican-led states to redraw their borders in Congress. What followed was a redistricting battle, with each party seeking an advantage in the midterms.

There is no guarantee that the new maps will play out as parties hope. For example, Texas based its revised lines largely on Trump’s performance in 2024, theoretically redistributing the president’s voters into more districts to draw them into the Republican column. But Trump’s popularity has declined since his re-election, including among Latino voters who are prominent in the state.

Florida could face a similar conundrum. If the state creates more Republican-majority districts but with slimmer margins, it could dilute their advantage and give Democrats a greater chance of winning seats, especially if there is an anti-Trump backlash in this year’s elections.

“If Florida does what it can, Republicans will at least be tied,” said Karl Rove, a former policy adviser to President George W. Bush. If Republicans become too aggressive, “they risk losing a seat or two.”

Brian Ballard, an influential Florida lobbyist who has been DeSantis’ top fundraiser, said it’s worth remembering that DeSantis was the muscle behind the 2021 map that expanded Republicans’ advantage in the state to its current levels.

“He’s incredibly smart and capable,” Ballard said. “And he’s not getting enough credit for that card. He’s already done that.”

Still, DeSantis will test his relationship with lawmakers, particularly in a House of Representatives chamber that has become more willing to oppose the governor in recent sessions. House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton have made it clear for weeks that they are not developing their own proposals and will only respond to what DeSantis has put forward.

Albritton sent several memos to senators reminding them of Florida’s state constitutional limits on redistricting and the requirement that it not be done as an overtly partisan act. Perez, who convened a redistricting committee last year, has said in recent weeks that he expected something to be done, but he has been cautious in his public statements.

“We’re ready to have that conversation,” he recently told WPLG in South Florida, before DeSantis released his proposal.

Besides redistricting, other topics won’t be much easier. DeSantis wants to require tech companies to ensure that children cannot interact with chatbots without parental permission. He also wants to prevent AI from generating material harmful to minors. The proposal will put DeSantis at odds with Trump, who wants the federal government to be the regulatory arbiter of AI technology.

On vaccines, DeSantis wants to add a conscience-based exemption to vaccine requirements in public schools, similar to the existing religious exemption. The push aligns him with the anti-vaccine portion of the Trump base that helped push the president to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary.

Versions of DeSantis’ proposals have already passed the state Senate but have not advanced in the House of Representatives, where Perez has been skeptical.

Ballard downplayed concerns. What may seem to some like strained relations with some Republican legislative leaders, he said, is simply measuring DeSantis against the early years of his term.

“I mean, he went from batting thousand to maybe .600,” Ballard said, using a baseball analogy for the governor who played the sport while attending Yale. “It’s not a failure.”

It’s hard to say how the session will affect DeSantis’ relationship with Trump or the president’s supporters.

Trump became frustrated with DeSantis as they competed for the Republican presidential nomination, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” on the campaign trail. The governor, at least initially, gave conservative establishment figures and major donors an option other than the then-former president.

But Trump apparently forgave DeSantis when he withdrew from the race and supported Trump after his victory in the Iowa caucuses. He even promised to call DeSantis by his real name.

However, there are more tensions within the White House. Chief of staff Susie Wiles, a Floridian, pulled off DeSantis’ landslide victory in 2018, only for the governor to fall out with her.

Wiles did not respond to a request for comment. But Ayres said he was sure she was being careful.

“Donald Trump has a long memory, and Susie Wiles has a longer one,” he said. “And it doesn’t bode well for Governor DeSantis to be the Republican successor to Donald Trump.”