If the iPhone Fold fails, you can blame the Air

It may seem strange to have doubts seven months after the device’s unveiling, but it’s still unclear whether the iPhone Air is a success or not. Early reports were clearly unconvincing, with retailers reporting “virtually no consumer demand”, but Speedtest data from last month suggested the phone could sell more than twice as many units as the iPhone 16 Plus it replaced. Apple could fix the problem by releasing official sales figures, but that’s not the company’s style.

This disparity is partly explained by thinking in terms of expectations. The Plus phones, just like the minis before them, didn’t sell well at all, which is why they were phased out. And that means that surpassing their performance, while satisfying to some extent, might not be cause for great celebration. (It’s also worth bearing in mind that retailer discounts, such as a surprisingly generous £200 reduction by Amazon UK, may have given an artificial boost to Air sales post-launch.)

Apple will of course tout the Air at every opportunity, but actions speak louder than words, and we’ll have a better idea of ​​whether Apple is truly happy with the Air’s performance in future iPhone launches. The iPhone Air 2, if it appears, should arrive either this fall alongside the iPhone 18 Pro or in the spring alongside the iPhone 18 and 18e. If he does not appear at either event, we can conclude that he was a flop after all. On the other hand, if the product has a second chance… well, that doesn’t mean much, since we have several iPhone mini and iPhone Plus. But if Air doesn’t make money, it will be phased out before long. Apple isn’t sentimental about such things.

In the long term, the device’s place in the lineup may well be taken by the iPhone Fold, Apple’s first-ever foldable phone. This product appears to be on track to launch alongside the 18 Pro in September (despite reports last week that it may have to be pushed back due to production issues), so before long we’ll see if a hugely expensive foldable is really what Apple customers are looking for. In that sense, it’s essentially the iPhone Air, but more so.

The problem with the Air, the factor that was always likely to limit its appeal, is the undeniable truth that in many ways it’s downright worse than other, cheaper phones. This isn’t normally how Apple lines work: the iPhone 17 Pro costs more than the iPhone 17, but it’s the same or better across the board. The only thing that can be said that the standard iPhones do better than the Pro models, besides costing less, is that they have funkier colors. While the iPhone Air costs $200 more than the iPhone 17, it has weaker cameras, shorter battery life, and slower MagSafe. As our reviewer pointed out, you pay more for less.

Put like that, the iPhone Air sounds totally unappealing, but that’s clearly not the case: Air buyers may be in the minority, but they’re out there and very happy with themselves. An Air owner told me last week that he was extremely happy with his phone and would have a hard time going back to a full-thick handset.

That’s about the only thing the product has to offer, but its design is such a game changer that some customers will take you up on the offer. Give it a few years and ultra-thin handsets will likely become the norm; maybe we’ll all find 8mm phones just as unbearably old-fashioned as those with 4-inch screens and home buttons seem today. It’s harder to say whether the iPhone Air will still be around to take advantage of this evolved market.

And where does that leave the Fold? Facing a difficult battle, but not a hopeless one. Likely priced around $2,000, the device will be a ruthless test of what exactly iPhone buyers care about. Based on dummy models leaked last week (and corroborated by earlier CAD drawings and other reports), the Fold will feature dual rear-facing cameras, which is an improvement over the iPhone Air. But the current design doesn’t appear to include a MagSafe coil, which would indeed constitute a serious injury. Even e-class iPhones come with MagSafe these days, and they cost (unless estimates are wildly off) less than a third of the price of the Fold.

As with the Air, we’ll see how much customers like the device’s unique selling point. Foldables are an enticing prospect, combining in a way no other device can achieve the portable chassis of a mini phone with the large screen of a mini tablet. But they ask a lot in return, and not just financially. While the Air’s big challenge was convincing everyone that it wouldn’t fold, the Fold will have to convince us that its hinge won’t be a vulnerable point in the event of mechanical failure. And there will undoubtedly be many other compromises.

Apple will have learned lessons from the launch of the Air. She will know from the start how important it is to target customer bookings, which in the case of the Air meant reassuring discussions about build quality and battery optimization. But we must also know now that revolutionary designs must be experienced to be truly appreciated. The Air seems like a really bad deal on paper, and the Fold will probably be even worse. But based on my friend’s evangelical zeal, everything changes once you have the handset in your hands.

You also have to be realistic. The success of the iPhone Air was always going to be very different from the success of the iPhone 17. It wasn’t just about generating revenue, but also about testing design concepts and building an audience for subsequent models. The iPhone Fold, meanwhile, will be tasked with introducing Apple customers to the foldable market and establishing what could become quite the product dynasty. At $2,000 each, it won’t sell for more than a standard $799 model, and it would be absurd to expect those kinds of numbers.

But that doesn’t mean Apple will settle for a niche. It’s not the Vision Pro, and the flagship iPhone slot should bring in a lot of money. The iPhone Fold can absolutely do it. But given the difficulties encountered by the Air, it is not going to be easy.

Foundry

Welcome to our weekly Apple Breakfast column, which includes all the Apple news you missed last week in one handy summary. We call it Apple Breakfast because we think it pairs really well with a Monday morning cup of coffee or tea, but it’s cool if you also want to read it during lunch or dinner hours.

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Apple has finally abandoned the Mac Pro. In the latest episode of the Macworld podcast, we talk about Apple’s tower workstation: its history, its purpose, and what it means for the Mac lineup going forward.

You can watch every episode of the Macworld Podcast on YouTube, Spotify, Soundcloud, the Podcasts app, or our own site.

Reviews corner

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