A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic now has a 70 percent chance of development within seven days, according to a tropical weather outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Sunday.
The disturbance had previously only had a 40 percent chance on Friday as it continued to move west-northwest. The storms associated with the tropical wave have gradually become more organized and are expected to form into a tropical depression during the middle to latter part of the week.
Newsweek has reached out to the NHC for further comment Sunday by email.
Why It Matters
The disturbance comes during the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, a period when most seasonal activity historically occurs.
Meteorologists are urging people to remain alert, as sea temperatures remain high and storms can still form well into October and even November. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.
National Hurricane Center
What To Know
The NHC said the tropical wave produced a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms and that dry, stable air was expected to limit development over the next couple of days.
As of Sunday afternoon, the system was moving in that direction at 10 to 15 miles per hour, according to the outlook. If the system develops, it would be the seventh named storm this season.
The Atlantic has been quieter than normal for this time of the year, but conditions such as falling Saharan dust levels and warm sea‑surface temperatures could make the basin more favorable for development in mid‑ to late September.
The NHC advisory for the Atlantic comes as the agency continues to issue advisories for Tropical Storm Mario in the Eastern Pacific.
Operational and ensemble model guidance that forecasters and some local meteorologists cited showed a likely west‑northwest track for disturbances emerging from the eastern tropical Atlantic, with longer‑range divergence in model solutions depending on the timing and intensity of development.
What People Were Saying
The NHC said in a tropical outlook Sunday morning: “A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.”
What Happened Next?
Forecasters said they planned to continue monitoring the disturbance closely, with the NHC noting that formation was likely by the middle to latter part of the week if organization proceeded as anticipated.
