Estimated 16,500 climate change deaths during Europe summer: Study

Scientists estimated on Wednesday that the increase in climate change temperatures caused by humans was responsible for around 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer, using modeling to project toll before the publication of official data.

The study quickly produced is the last effort of climate and health researchers to quickly link the number of deaths during war waves to global warming – without months or years being published in a review evaluated by peers.

The estimated deaths were not really recorded in European cities, but were rather a projection based on methods such as the modeling used in studies previously evaluated by peers.

It is believed that death tolls during heat waves are largely underestimated because the causes of death recorded in hospitals are normally the heart, breathing or other health problems that particularly affect the elderly when mercury flat.

To obtain a snapshot of this summer, a team of researchers based in the United Kingdom used climate modeling to estimate that global warming has made temperatures on average of 2.2 degrees Celsius warmer in 854 European cities between June and August.

Using historical data indicating how such arrow temperatures increase mortality rates, the team estimated that there were around 24,400 excess deaths in these cities during this period.

They then compared this number to how many people would have died in a world which was not more than 1.3 C due to the climate change caused by humans who burn fossil fuels.

According to the Rapid Assignment study, almost 70% to 16,500 – estimated excessive deaths were due to global warming.

This means that climate change may have tripled the number of heat deaths this summer, said the study of scientists from Imperial College London and epidemiologists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The team had already used similar methods to find a similar result for a single European heat wave that started at the end of June.

The researchers said they were unable to compare their estimates to the actual excess deaths recorded in European cities this summer, because most countries take a long time to publish this data.

“It is impossible to obtain statistics in real time at the moment”, however, the estimates are “in the right stage,” said the co-author of the study, Friederike Otto, at a press conference.

‘Even more alarming’

Estimates reflected research prior to peer assessment, such as a Nature Medicine Study which determined more than 47,000 heat -related deaths during the European summer of 2023.

Many important climate and health researchers have also supported the study.

“What makes this discovery even more alarming is that the methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust, but conservative,” said the researcher in atmosphere Akshay Deoras at the British Reading University.

“The actual number of death could be even higher.”

The study indicated that Rome had the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change with 835, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409.

More than 85% of the estimated excessive deaths were among the people aged 65 or over.

The researchers stressed that the study did not represent Europe as a whole because certain areas – such as the Balkans – were not included.

“An increase in the temperature of heat waves of only 2-4C can make the difference between life and death for thousands of people-which is why heat waves are known as silent killers,” said the co-author of the Garyfolos Konstantinudis study.

This year was the fourth summer of the summer never recorded.

© 2025 AFP