Are we doing enough to save Earth from a devastating asteroid strike? | Asteroids

IT is a scenario loved by Hollywood: a huge asteroid, several kilometers wide, is on a collision trajectory with the earth. Scientists check and revive their calculations, but there is no error – civilization is faced with a cataclysmic end unless the space rock can be deflected.

This can look like science fiction, but it is a threat that is taken seriously by scientists.

Earlier this year, the researchers estimated that the asteroid YR4 2024 was 3.1% chance of hitting the earth in 2032, before revising this probability to 0.0017%. This week, new data suggested that it was more likely to hit the moon, with a probability of 4.3%.

If this happens, the asteroid from 53 to 67 meters (174 feet to 220 feet) previously called “city killer” will launch hundreds of tons of debris towards our planet, posing a risk for satellites, space vessels and astronauts.

Before that, in April 2029, the 99942 Apophis – an asteroid larger than the Eiffel Tower – will be visible to the naked eye when it passes less than 32,000 km from the earth. This close meeting which attracts attention prompted the UN to designate 2029 as the international year of planetary defense.

Regarding the strikes of apocalyptic asteroids, there is of course a previous one. Most scientists believe that such an event has accelerated the disappearance of non -avian dinosaurs 66 million years ago.

“This is something that happens,” said Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. “Not very often, but it’s something that happens. And that’s something we could potentially do something.”

Know the risk

As Chris Lintott, professor of astrophysics at the University of Oxford, said this week to the Committee of Sciences, Innovation and Technology of the British Parliament, the risk posed by an asteroid from our solar system is minimal. Instead, he said, the greatest threat comes from those of our cosmic backyard.

“Most asteroids in the solar system exist in the asteroid belt, which is located between Mars and Jupiter, but they become disturbed, generally by meetings with one or the other of these planets, and they can move to orbits that cross the earth,” said Lintott, which presents the long race of BBC Astronomy Series The Sky The Night. “Then it’s just about knowing if we are in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

The chances of a huge asteroid – the guy who made for dinosaurs – hitting the earth is certainly low. “We think there is one every 10 to 100 meters, probably,” Lintott told the Guardian. “So I think you would be right to ignore this when you decide to get up on a Thursday morning or not.”

Snodgrass said that there were “precisely four” asteroids large enough and close enough to the earth to be considered “dino-killers”, and added: “We know where they are, and they do not approach us”.

But damage can also be caused by smaller asteroids. According to NASA, the space rocks measuring about one to 20 meters from the other have collided with the atmosphere of the earth, which resulted in fire balls 556 times over 20 years.

Many collisions have occurred on the oceans, but not all. “Chelyabinsk is the best example,” said Lintott. In 2013, a spatial rock the size of a house – which would have been about 20 meters in diameter – exploded in the air above the Russian city with a force of nearly 30 Hiroshima bombs, producing an air explosion which caused significant damage and hundreds of injuries, mainly from broken glass.

Less spectacularly, in February 2021, a space rock considered as dozens of centimeters broke out in the earth’s atmosphere, with landing in the city of Winchcombe of Cotswold in the United Kingdom. Fortunately, the damage was limited to a Splat brand on a driveway.

The types of asteroids that should perhaps be the most concerned with are those approximately 140 meters in diameter. According to NASA, it is believed that asteroids around this size strike the earth about once every 20,000 years and have the potential to cause enormous destruction and mass victims. The space agency has a mandate of the congress to detect and follow the almost terrestrial objects of this size and larger, and a series of new technological advances helps them to do exactly this.

Gather data

On Monday, the first images of the Vera C Rubin observatory in Chile were released to the public. This telescope should more than triple the number of almost known land objects, from around 37,000 to 127,000, over a period of 10 years. In just 10 hours of observations, he found seven asteroids previously not exposed which will pass near the earth – although none should strike.

The launch before 2027 is also planned before 2027. Armed with a range of infrared detectors, it is “the first space telescope specially designed to detect asteroids and comets which can be potential dangers for the land,” said the agency.

Lintott said: “Between these two, we should find everything about 140 meters.” He said such observations should give scientists up to 10 years of warning a potential collision.

The European Space Agency (ESA) provides for an object mission close to the land in the infrared satellite (Neomir). Scheduled for the launch in the early 2030s, this will help detect asteroids towards the earth which measure at least 20 meters in diameter and obscured by the sun.

Evaluating the emerging capacities, Edward Baker, the planetary defense manager in the National Space Operations Center (NSPOC) of the United Kingdom at RAF High Wycombe, said: “I think we are in the right place. I do not see a situation as a situation like [the film] Do not try to materialize at all – even if it would not bother me to be represented by Leonardo DiCaprio.

While our ability to identify almost land asteroids is increasing, said Lintott, we should get used to hearing asteroids like YR4 2024, which initially seem more likely to hit the earth before the risk quickly falls to zero. He described changing probabilities as similar to what a footballer takes a free kick.

“The moment they hit him, [it looks like] It could go anywhere, “he said.” And as he moves, you get more information. So, you say to yourself: “Oh, it could go for the goal”, then it inevitably becomes very clear that it will miss. »»

Act

Of course, scientists do not only follow the risks of the earth. They also plan to protect it. In 2022, NASA crushed a spacecraft in a harmless small asteroid called Dimorphos which orbit a larger rock called Didymos to test if it would be possible to move its path. The DART mission was a success, reducing the orbit of 12 hours of Dimorphos around 32 -minute Didymos.

In 2024, ESA launched a follow -up of the NASA Dart mission, called Hera. This will reach Dimorphos in 2026 and carry out an “investigation into the accident site”. He will examine the Crater Impact Dart, will probe how the momentum has been transferred to the collision and records a multitude of other measures.

The ESA hopes that this will provide crucial information that can be used to have a deliberate impact of dart style a reliable technique for saving the earth.

“Dart was much more effective than anyone expected it,” said Lintott. “And probably, it is something to do with the structure of the asteroid. I think we must know if Dart was lucky with his target, or if all almost earth asteroids are like that.”

For the most part, scientists say that the threat of an asteroid strike does not maintain them at night. “We are safer than we have never been and we are about to become much safer, because the more we find, the more we can spot them along the way,” said Lintott.

As ESA joked on its goods: “The dinosaurs did not have a space agency.”