A key civil right is losing support. Plus, the polls missed Mamdani

The investigation says is a weekly series bringing together the most important survey trends or data points you need to know, as well as an atmosphere verification on a trend that stimulates policy.

Republicans are the fall of republications on homosexual marriage

June 26 marked the 10th anniversary of the Supreme Court decision Obergefell c. Hodges, This legalized homosexual marriage on a national scale. The court caught up the changing attitudes of the American public on the issue. But now these attitudes are changing again, at least among the Republicans.

In 1996, only 27% of Americans thought that same -sex weddings were valid and worthy of the same legal rights as heterosexual marriages, according to Falsification. In May 2015, the month before Obergefell Decision, this share had slowly and quite regularly at 60%. Now it’s 68%.

Even the Republicans arrived on the issue. In 1996, only 16% supported homosexual marriage, but in 2021 and 2022, their support reached a 55% summit. Since then, however, he has dropped. This year, only 41% of Republicans support homosexual marriage.

Given that 88% of Democrats support homosexual marriage, there is now an astonishing gap of 47 points between the parties – the most important since Gallup followed the question. Curiously, however, this homophobic backslading seems contained in the Republicans. The self -employed support homosexual marriage at the same level as democrats – 76% – and it has grown since 2022, when support was 72%.

This republican reaction is probably the result of viciously negative attacks on the GOP against people and LGBTQ + rights more widely. Around 2022, when the Republican electorate supported the most homosexual marriage, the leaders of their party merged around the FROATATION OF A Queer and their Democratic Allies like “torers“, Reviving A homophobic lie On queer adults sexually abuse children.

In the fall of 2022, the Republicans underperform In mid-term elections. But rather than learning from their sectarian errors, the party has looked into them, more demonizing one of the most marginalized groups in the LGBTQ +community: transgender people and young people in particular. Last year, the candidate of the time Donald Trump and his republican colleagues viciously attacked trans peopleTrying to scare voters to support the GOP.

And it could have worked. The electoral success of the anti-Trans message is questionable. In the days before the 2024 elections, 80% of probable voters wanted democratic and republican candidates to focus less on transgender issues and more on the economy, according to A survey of progress data.

Nevertheless, it seems clear that the anti-LGBTQ + messaging of the republican party triggers a backlash, although it remains to be seen how far this fire of hatred will spread. After all, the Supreme Court is now much more conservative than it was in 2015, and its majority of the right demonstrated little respect for civil or civil rights.

A big lack in the Big Apple

Last Tuesday evening, Zohran Mamdani, a state legislator and self -proclaimed democratic socialist, succeeded what seems to be a shock victory in the primary mayor Democrat in New York against the former disgrace governor Andrew Cuomo. And perhaps none was only shocked by the pollsters, who, with one exception, predicted a great victory for Cuomo.

In election Directed since the beginning of April, Cuomo led Mamdani on average 14 points in the first round of the city’s choice of choice. And yet Mamdani ended up winning the first round per 7 pointsWith 93% of the votes counted on Friday.

Local elections are Notoriously difficult to question. Despite this, a 21 -point miss is a terrible performance.

Many pollsters say the An error came mainly from Surveys, especially those who had voted in the previous primaries, which made them miss the new voters this year. A single sounder – the survey of left -wing public policies – changed Mamdani leading the first voting series. Because the PPP recognized precisely that Mamdani was energizing young and new voters, they gave additional weight to these groups and understood people, which they voted above.

“Tens of thousands of people voted during their first elections at the town hall this year,” said the cabinet a declaration Published Tuesday evening, after the alleged victory of Mamdani. “We found those who did not vote in 2021 breaking 63-18 for Mamdani. We included them in our survey. ”

The final results of the primary are expected on July 1, after tabulum of classified choice. If Mamdani has indeed won, he would face the mayor Eric Adams in the general elections in November. Adams, who abandoned the Democratic Party and presents himself as an independent, has a Atrocious approval rating largely because of making him move to Trump, which he apparently did so that the federal government Drop your accusation of corruption. This quid pro quo apparent can keep Adams outside prison, but he could also get him out of Manor Gracie.

In November, Mamdani would also face the Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, who founded the Guardian Angels voluntary crime prevention group and lost the race for the town hall in 2021 by Almost 40 points. He can also face … Andrew Cuomo, who Refuse to exclude the race As a sign -up, because this asshole is like that.

However, Mamdani would probably be the front of the mayor, because the Democratic candidate is generally the big favorite. He also brought together a Fresh, intercultural, multiracial and class coalition Due to his relentless countryside Regarding the repair of the cost of the cost of living in the city.

In addition, guys cuts A stellar announcement::

Iran, Iran so far (of my recently held political convictions)

America first, more. The republican base seems to follow Trump wherever he stumbles, even if it was in the midst of a war between Israel and Iran.

Days before Trump’s decision to Attack three nuclear sites in Iran Last weekend, a Yougov / Economist survey revealed that Only 16% of Americans supported The United States is involved in war. This only included 23% of Republicans.

But in A Yougov / Economist survey Fisqué from June 20 to 23 – IE, just before, during and after strikes – 29% of Americans supported Iranian nuclear sites in the United States, largely trained by a majority of Republicans (57%) who supported the strikes. Only 9% of Democrats and 21% of the self -employed felt the same thing. This older reaction in the broader electorate may have persuaded the Pentagon to claim with confusion that despite the direct attack of a foreign nation hostile in the midst of an in progress war, it did not want Be part of this war.

And now A new surveyDirected by Quinnipiac University entirely after the American strikes on Iran, notes that 81% of republican voters argue that the United States joins Israel attacks against Iran. Talk about a thong. Meanwhile, Democrats and the self -employed have not changed their beliefs as much: 75% and 60%, respectively, oppose attacks respectively.

GOP needs less to make consent these days. Not only do they not really care what the public wants, but they also have a basis of voters arranged to follow them wherever the ideological consistency is damned.

Updates?

• American Hates Trump’s “Liberation Day” pricesBut they are sure to hate them once it will be time for buying back to school. The first buyers are already slapped with higher prices, according to A new survey morning consultation. Among the 34%of American parents who started purchases at the start of the school year, 62%say that clothes are more expensive than last year, while majorities also say the same thing about electronics (61%), home items (61%), school supplies (57%) and books (54%). While most (59%) hold the inflation responsible for higher prices, more than 1 in 3 directly blame the prices.

• The Paywall: You know, you hate it, you try to find information elsewhere because now All is a subscription. New data from Pew Research Center Fouls this: 53% of Americans who struck a payment wall will seek the news elsewhere, while 32% will not give up research. Only 1% of Americans who face a paid wall will pay for access. The problem is that the news is not free and advertising dollars are withered. So please, if you can, Clinch in Kos daily And keep the over-mother of the site without wall. You can even buy Your own subscriptionabandon Help daily fighting the Trump Ministry of Justice As it comes after us.

Ambient check

The news is a bad place these days, and that is bad news for Trump with regard to all his favorite political subjects. The president is underwater on his management of inflation, trade, economy and even immigration, according to the electoral analyst Nate Silver surveys.

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