Making sense of the noise surrounding Tigers’ Tarik Skubal

They are still recovering in Detroit from the Tigers’ crushing Division Series loss to the Mariners, while it was reported the other day that they will most likely also lose their best player, Tarik Skubal.

The discouraging news, which came via a report from Skubal’s top media agent Scott Boras, was that there was a nearly $250 million gap between the Tigers and their star pitcher who will become a free agent at age 30 after next season. No one really knew where that number came from since it’s unclear if the Tigers even entered into negotiations with Boras, but Detroit media speculated that it came from what they called the “non-competitive” four-year extended offer the Tigers made to Skubal after the 2024 season and the anticipated $400 million deal Boras is now reportedly seeking.

Either way, no one believes Tigers owner Chris Ilitch has the guts to compete with the big market giants and hand out a record $40 million per 8-9 year deal for a pitcher, like the one the Yankees offered Boras client Gerrit Cole in 2019. Which leaves the Tigers between a rock and a hard place with Skubal, who is on the verge of winning his second straight Cy Young after leading the American League in ERA (2.21) and finishing second. in strikeouts. Will they keep him for another year, knowing that without him, their chances of reaching the World Series in 2026 – or even making the playoffs – are significantly diminished?

Or do they trade him now in hopes of getting a maximum value of 3-4 prospects for him, as opposed to just draft compensation if he leaves as a free agent? To that, I would submit – assuming Boras doesn’t sign Skubal to a new contract before he hits the open market – only a few teams would trade him for a one-year rental with the confidence of being able to sign him.

The Mets are one of those teams – in fact perhaps the only one with the Dodgers and Yankees seemingly at full quota with their starting pitchers – and they certainly have the career prospect needed even if Nolan McLean is deemed untouchable. Plus, they couldn’t have a bigger need than a top-quality frontline starting pitcher. The question for them is how far is Steve Cohen willing to let his payroll go? With Juan Soto at $51 million and Francisco Lindor at $34 million, is he really ready to add another player at $35-40 million?

I’d also add this for Cohen’s consumption: As good a pitcher as Skubal was, in Game 5 of the ALDS — the biggest game of his life and the biggest game of the Tigers’ season — when he came off the mound after six innings and 99 pitches, he said he was done. Where have you been Bob Gibson – three World Series, eight complete games?

If I had to guess, I’d say the Tigers ignore Boras’ contract, hold on to Skubal and take him as far as they can next year.

IT’S A MAD, MAD WORLD

It looks like marriage is between Bryce Harper and the Phillies have formed some cracks. During his end-of-season media festival, Phillies general manager Dave Dombrowski raised eyebrows when he cited Harper — whose .844 OPS this year was his lowest since 2016 and his lowest .261 average since 2019 — as one of his concerns for the future. “He’s still a quality player. He’s still an All-Star caliber player, but he hasn’t had an elite season like he has in the past,” Dombrowski said. “I guess we’ll just know if he becomes elite or if he continues to be good.” It should be noted that Dombrowski was not the general manager when the Phillies signed Harper to the 13-year/$330 million contract in 2019 (the largest in history at the time). Just last year, Harper and his agent Scott Boras pushed the owner of the Phillies John Middleton for an extension. In the ALDS against the Dodgers, Harper was 3 for 15 with no RBIs in the Phillies’ four losses. …If ever a salary cap were needed in baseball, look no further than the Dodgers-Brewers ALCS, where the Dodgers’ payroll of $350 million is $229 million higher than that of the 17th-ranked Brewers. That’s more than the TOTAL payroll of over 20 teams. Additionally, during the Dodgers’ four-game sweep, the Brewers opted to Aaron Ashby as opener in two of the games while all four Dodgers starters — Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto And Shohei Ohtani – had a combined AAV salary of $165 million.