Commanders vs Cowboys Props & Best Bets for Week 7
It’s the final installment of the wild NFC East on Sunday, with the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders facing off after disappointing Week 6 losses.
Star power is expected to turn up a notch at AT&T Stadium with CeeDee Lamb expected to return from an ankle injury, but my favorite NFL picks target the Cowboys’ other top receiver as well as a big day for Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
With Dak Prescott and Jayden Daniels facing off in this marquee match on Sunday, October 19, buckle up for fireworks.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Accessories
| Player | Take |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
Over 68.5 yards rushing | <<-114>> |
 George Pickens |
Longest reception of 25.5 meters | <<-122>> |
| Jaylin Lane |
Alanding at any time | <<+200>> |
Accessory bet #1: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 68.5 rushing yards
-114 at FanDuel
Jacory Croskey-Merritt already has a 100-yard rushing day under his belt in his rookie season, but he has to look forward to an even bigger performance on Sunday against a Dallas Cowboys defense that coughed up 216 rushing yards last weekend against Rico Dowdle and the Carolina Panthers.
Croskey-Merritt’s touches are also going in the right direction. He turned 14 carries into 111 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, followed by a season-high 17 catches on Monday night. Despite fumbling in back-to-back outings, he’s still the main man in this Washington Commanders backfield.
So this line seems a little too low for “Bill” at this spot, with the threat of Daniels’ legs preventing the Cowboys from selling out at the line of scrimmage. Only three teams are allowing more rushing yards per game than Dallas (142.2) this season, and with Terry McLaurin ruled out again and other pass catchers listed as questionable, it makes sense for the Commanders to lean on the running game.
The Croskey-Merritt TD anytime prop is also worth considering for such a favorable matchup, but the Over on a generous rushing yard line offers even more value.
Prop bet #2: George Pickens had the longest reception Over 25.5 yards
-122 at FanDuel
Although CeeDee Lamb is poised to re-establish himself as Dak Prescott’s No. 1 target, there have been some very encouraging signs from George Pickens during his brief stint as the go-to person in this Dallas passing attack.
Pickens was a beast last weekend against the Panthers, hauling in nine catches for 168 receiving yards, including a 40-plus yard catch for the second straight game. So I go back to the well with this prop, and Pickens has a catch of at least 27 yards in four of his last five outings.
In addition, commanders have difficulties in secondary education. This year, they’ve given up the second-most passes of 40-plus yards (6), behind the Cowboys, and that flaw was still glaring Monday night, as four different Chicago Bears receivers had a catch of 20-plus yards.
Lamb’s return should mean even more one-on-one coverage for Pickens to exploit, and there’s a nice connection brewing with Dak on those downfield shots. Pencil Pickens goes for another explosive play on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: Jaylin Lane Anytime TD
+200 to FanDuel
While Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz have played key roles as savvy veterans in a makeshift passing attack, the Commanders also rely heavily on some inexperienced receivers — and rookie Jaylin Lane has caught the eye when given opportunities.
He had a flashy 37-yard reception on MNF against Chicago, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get an uptick here as a crumbling Washington receiving room tries to prey on a vulnerable Dallas defense.
Although his volume has been limited, Lane’s speed brings a different dimension to Commanders. If the visitors can lull the Cowboys with a steady diet of running plays, Lane is an ideal playmaking threat when Daniels wants to be aggressive.
For all the attention paid to Dallas’ run defense this week, the hosts also allowed three passing touchdowns to Carolina, and it only takes one missed assignment to cash in on that pick. Lane isn’t an obvious weapon in the red zone at 5”10, but he scored 10 touchdowns in his two college seasons at Virginia Tech, and I like that price for a score on Sunday.
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