Trump in Asia: five key questions as US president prepares for diplomatic tour | Donald Trump
Donald Trump is set to embark on a tour of Asia that many hope will ease trade tensions with regional countries and repair damaged ties with China. Trump will begin his trip on Sunday with a meeting of Southeast Asian countries in Malaysia, before flying to Japan to meet its new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, early next week.
But the most important stop on his itinerary comes at the end of the month, when he is expected to discuss trade, and perhaps Taiwan, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in South Korea.
Will he meet Xi Jinping?
Trump is expected to meet with Xi Jinping on Thursday next week, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. However, what they might talk about is sparking more speculation than any other issue on the agenda at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, and Leavitt did not provide further details Thursday evening. The stakes are high, which is why pressure is increasing on the two men to ease trade tensions that risk harming the world’s two largest economies.
Trump recently proposed reducing tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, but insisted that Beijing must also make concessions, including resuming purchases of American soybeans, limiting the flow of ingredients used to make the opioid fentanyl – which has caused an overdose epidemic in America – and lifting restrictions on the export to the United States of rare earth minerals, necessary for the manufacture of high-tech products such as smartphones.
Failure to reduce trade tensions could further harm U.S. industries already suffering the consequences of Trump’s tariffs. The US president sounded optimistic ahead of his meeting with Xi, telling reporters this week: “I think we’re going to end up doing a fantastic deal with China… it’s going to be fantastic for the whole world.” But time is running out: The meeting between Trump and Xi, which has not yet been confirmed by Beijing, will take place just as additional 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States are expected to take effect.
The leaders are also expected to discuss Taiwan, fearing that Trump will waver on Washington’s support for the democratic, self-governing island under pressure from Xi. Beijing has reportedly asked the White House to declare its opposition to Taiwan’s independence — a move that would please China, which views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunified with the mainland.
Will there be any pricing agreements for Southeast Asia?
Trump’s attendance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur comes at a critical time for the regional bloc, whose 10 members together exported goods worth $312 billion to the United States last year, up from $142 billion in 2017. The United States is the region’s largest export destination and depends on ASEAN economies to keep their manufacturing supply chain moving.
Trump’s response to the growing trade deficit with Southeast Asian countries was to impose “reciprocal” tariffs of between 10% and 40%, prompting ASEAN leaders to issue a joint statement expressing concern over “America First” protectionism, saying Trump’s measures “pose significant risks to the multilateral trading system and the stability of supply chains world”.
Trump, who has not attended an ASEAN summit since 2017, will meet with the bloc’s leaders on Sunday, where discussions are expected to focus on Vietnam and Thailand, the two biggest contributors to the U.S. trade deficit.
The end of another “war”?
Trump’s visit to Malaysia may be motivated less by trade than by a desire to position himself at the center of any deal to end the dispute over undemarcated points along Thailand’s 817km-long land border.
Malaysia negotiated a fragile ceasefire after five days of clashes in July that left dozens dead and around 300,000 displaced, but the cause of the friction remains unresolved. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan recently told reporters that Trump was “eager” to see a peace deal signed at the summit – a move the US president would no doubt use to boost his credibility as an international peacemaker.
Will he meet (again) Kim Jong-un?
You can never say never with Donald Trump. At this point, a meeting seems unlikely, although with the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine fading rapidly, Trump may be persuaded to turn his attention to his “friend” Kim and the intractable problem of North Korea’s nuclear program.
CNN, citing unnamed sources, reported last weekend that U.S. officials had discussed hosting a meeting during his Asia visit, and Trump said in August that he would like to meet his North Korean counterpart “in the appropriate future.”
But his three previous attempts to persuade Kim to curb his nuclear ambitions – during two summits in 2018 and 2019, and during a quickly arranged visit to the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea later that year – ended in failure. Since then, Kim has overseen steady improvements to the North’s ballistic missile program, sent more than 10,000 troops to fight alongside Russian troops in the war in Ukraine and joined an anti-Western alliance with Beijing and Moscow.
Days before Trump was scheduled to arrive in South Korea for the Apec summit, the North launched two short-range missiles in what the regime described as a successful test of a new “hypersonic system” aimed at strengthening its nuclear deterrent. In this context, the time does not seem right for Trump to take another gamble on Kim.
Did the ICE raid in Georgia last month cool ties with South Korea?
Last month’s raid by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents on a South Korean electric battery factory under construction in Georgia sparked widespread anger in Seoul. Around 300 South Korean nationals were arrested amid allegations they were working illegally at the factory. The South Korean public is unlikely to forget the incident anytime soon, but the country’s President Lee Jae Myung has more pressing matters to discuss with Trump in Gyeongju, where they are expected to meet on Wednesday.
They include reaching a summer deal to invest $350 billion in the U.S. economy, which was delayed by disagreements over what form the South Korean investment should take. As part of the deal, the United States agreed to reduce tariffs on South Korean automobiles from 25 percent to 15 percent, the same level imposed on cars from Japan and the EU.
Some observers have speculated that Lee, who met with Trump at the White House in August, could leverage lingering fallout from the ICE debacle to extract concessions from Trump. South Korean officials say they have made progress on trade in recent weeks, but acknowledge that “one or two” issues remain unresolved.
