Where to watch Chiefs vs. Commanders: TV channel, live stream, prediction, odds for ‘MNF’

On the Week 8 edition of “Monday Night Football,” the Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Commanders.

Kansas City is coming off a dominant win over the division rival Raiders that took the Chiefs above .500 for the first time this season. They’ve won four of their last five games after starting 0-2, and they have a chance here to keep pace in the AFC West race.

Washington lost resoundingly to division rival Dallas last week, falling to 3-4 in the process after missing a winnable game against the Bears the week before. The Commanders are starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota again here, after Jayden Daniels suffered an injury during the loss against the Cowboys.

Will the leaders keep rolling, or will the commanders bounce back? We’ll know soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the match.

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Where to watch Chiefs vs. Direct orders

• Date: Monday October 27 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
• TV: ESPN | Flow: Fubo (try for free)
• Follow: CBS Sports app
• Odds: Chiefs -10.5, O/U 48.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

When the commanders have the ball

As mentioned, the Commanders are once again without Jayden Daniels for this game.

Mariota made two starts in place of Daniels earlier this season and went 31 of 48 for 363 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Raiders and Falcons, while adding 60 yards and a touchdown on his eight carries. Mariota will benefit from the return of Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel. McLaurin has been out since Week 4 while Samuel played with a heel injury and missed last week because of it.

Kansas City’s defense has been stingy since its season-opening loss to the Chargers. The Chiefs have allowed fewer than 300 total yards in four of their last six games, and last week they held the Raiders to 95 (NINETY-FIVE) yards in just 30 snaps. They’ve faced a somewhat soft schedule during this stretch thanks to games against Russell Wilson, half of Cooper Rush and then the Raiders, but they’ve also kept the Lions largely in check and haven’t really been lit up by Lamar Jackson before his injury.

Washington will likely try to control the game on the ground with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Mariota, since the running game will likely be the strength of the offense and that would help keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.

The Commanders are averaging a league-best 5.3 yards per carry, with a significant portion of those yards coming after contact as their running backs and quarterbacks have been good at breaking tackles. (They have the 10th highest avoided tackle rate in the league.) The Chiefs can be chased, as they gave up 4.5 yards per carry, so the strategy of trying to pound the rock is probably wise.

When Mariota drops back to pass, he’ll face a unit that ranks fifth in the league in EPA per dropback, via Tru Media, limiting opponents to 6.6 yards per attempt with just seven touchdowns in seven weeks against four picks. The Chiefs mostly limited explosive plays through the air, and they did a great job getting off the field on third downs. Their pressure rate is among the best in the league and media coverage has been largely sticky. Even with McLaurin and Samuel back, Mariota could struggle in the air unless Kliff Kingsbury finds a way to program him for quick throws.

As the season wears on, the commanders are right to prioritize Jayden Daniels’ health now and for the future.

Zachary Pérels

When the Chiefs have the ball

Kansas City’s offense is on a roll right now. After a slow start to the season, the Chiefs have produced at least 355 yards, 24 first downs and 28 points in four straight games. The Chiefs picked up Rashee Rice last week against the Raiders, and he debuted with seven catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns despite playing just 33 snaps. Kansas City will continue to increase its workload and continue to benefit from his presence.

Patrick Mahomes is already playing at an MVP level with a 66.1% completion rate at 7.3 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions, and he’s added 250 yards and four scores with his legs. Mahomes finally started hitting for explosive plays again, connecting with guys like Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton and Hollywood Brown down the field while continuing to work the lower areas of the field effectively, as he has over the past few seasons.

Washington has been one of the NFL’s weakest pass defenses this season, ranking 23rd in Tru Media’s EPA by dropback while allowing opponents to average 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 12 touchdown passes against two interceptions. The Commanders gave up 22 completions of 20 yards or more, according to Tru Media, ranking 25th in explosive completion rate allowed. Against a Chiefs team that gets on the field more often than in recent seasons, that’s a recipe for giving up big plays.

Commanders will need to generate a ton of pressure to cover the secondary, and they’ve actually done a good job so far this year, collecting a sack, hitting or rushing on 40.7% of opposing dropbacks while blitzing at a rate just above league average. The Chiefs will once again be without left tackle Josh Simmons, but they have largely kept Mahomes well-protected this year and he has done an incredible job escaping pressure whenever the protection has broken down.

Kansas City’s running game hasn’t been very high-scoring so far this year, with Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith combining for an average of just 3.9 yards per carry. Pacheco has taken more control of the backfield recently, with Hunt occupying a back seat, but Hunt has remained the third down and short-yardage back. Smith has functioned primarily as a gadget, with the Chiefs looking to get the ball in his hands whenever he’s on the field, but using him in a limited role, primarily as a pass catcher.

Washington’s defensive front has done a good job against the run this season, limiting opposing backs to just 1.22 yards before contact per carry, which ranks 10th in the NFL. The Commanders have been a poor tackling unit, however, ranking 29th in broken tackle rate and giving up yards after contact. Whether this group of Chiefs backs is capable of breaking tackles is an open question, but the game plan will likely be pass-heavy and focused on Mahomes and Co. either way.

Prediction

Kansas City has advantages in this matchup, especially considering how its offense has looked over the past few weeks. With the Commanders on the road and their backup quarterback, it’s hard to do anything other than take on the Chiefs, even score points.

Choose: Leaders 31, Commanders 13