Colombian president finds it hard to make his oil-rich country green
With the mountains and lush forest as a backdrop, a 745-foot crane soars skyward and lifts drill pipes into the Floreña No. 18 well. It is located in one of Colombia’s most promising exploration sites, containing approximately 250 million barrels of oil and gas, roughly what Colombia consumes in a year.
But if President Gustavo Petro’s vision comes to fruition, it could be one of Colombia’s last.
Colombia’s first openly left-wing president has set out an ambitious green agenda since taking office in 2022. Mr. Petro is the first leader of a major oil-producing country to end new fossil fuel exploration contracts (although existing contracts remain valid). He raised taxes on the country’s oil and coal companies, pledging to increase investment in renewable energy projects such as wind and solar farms, and cut bureaucracy that can hamper renewable energy deployment.
Why we wrote this
President Gustavo Petro is rushing to turn Colombia green. But his energy agenda highlights the complicated trade-offs that must be made when fossil fuels remain essential to the economy.
His government is pushing Congress to ban fracking, and Ecopetrol, the state oil and gas company, has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 – the first such company in Latin America to set that goal.
But Colombia faces challenges and contradictions in implementing its environmental plan, ranging from threats to its energy security to environmental trade-offs related to the importation of natural gas.
As the idea of going green becomes increasingly popular in Latin America, resource-rich countries like Colombia are discovering that implementing big ideas can conflict with other important goals such as social spending or maintaining fiscal stability. Colombia has one of the region’s largest budget deficits, and oil and coal revenues remain key to financing the budget – including Mr Petro’s plans to raise pensions and expand education and health programs.
Mr. Petro’s proposal for a rapid energy transition is closely watched by political leaders and investors in the region. Success could make Colombia a model, but failure could leave a lasting mark on the country’s environment and finances.
“Petro is a poster child for what not to do if you care about the environment,” says Ricardo Hausmann, founder of the Growth Lab at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. Until global demand for fossil fuels changes, he says, Mr. Petro’s efforts will be in vain.
The growing gas problem
Colombia’s oil and gas sector has been in decline since its peak in the early 2010s, but it continues to account for about a fifth of the country’s exports and accounts for about 10% of gross domestic product. In Casanare state, home to the Floreña No. 18 well, the oil industry accounted for 82% of GDP in 1999, but by 2023 that share had been cut in half.
Once a regional leader in gasification – with 70% of homes cooking with gas, more environmentally friendly and healthier than wood – Colombia is now forced to import gas. For the first time in almost half a century, last year it turned to imports to meet demand from households and industries.
Experts say Mr Petro’s ban on new oil and gas exploration contracts and Colombia’s planned ban on fracking could further undermine Colombia’s energy security – and its environmental health. Without enough gas, Colombians are using dirtier alternatives like carbon or wood, accelerating deforestation, says Esteban Ángel, an energy expert at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm.
To make Colombia carbon neutral by 2050, Mr. Petro relied on renewable energy. His government inaugurated several solar parks and launched Colombia Solar, a program aimed at equipping low-income households with solar panels.
But renewable energy is expensive and Colombia has a widening budget deficit. Some projects are held back by environmental licensing requirements and prior consultations with local communities, who may not necessarily agree with proposed wind and solar initiatives.
As national gas reserves dwindle and Mr. Petro plans to stop exploring new sources, the president has floated the idea of importing gas from Qatar as a stopgap solution to the dilemma. This gas could cost three times more than local supplies and emit up to 50% more carbon dioxide, according to Mr. Ángel, because imported gas must be liquefied, transported halfway around the world, then regasified.
“It is not reasonable to just exploit more of existing reserves,” says Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America energy program at Rice University’s Baker Institute, who considers Colombia’s plan short-sighted. He says that if Mr Petro wants to protect the climate, he should instead try to meet demand for fossil fuels, for example by eliminating Colombia’s oil subsidies and introducing a carbon tax.
Ricardo Roa, president of Ecopetrol, says this administration’s goal “is to place natural gas at the center of the energy transition, as a fuel for the energy transition.” But Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s former environment minister, says this misses the point of a green transition. “Gas is a fossil fuel. It’s greenwashing to present it as something else.” The era of fossil fuels, she says, must end.
A regional struggle
Colombia’s difficulties in implementing its green agenda are reflected across the region.
Brazil will host the COP30 climate summit in November, with the stated objective of accelerating the energy transition. But in its current five-year plan, Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil and gas company, has allocated more than 70% of its investments to exploring new oil fields, while only 15% will be dedicated to the energy transition.
Ecuador held a historic referendum in August 2023 to vote to stop oil drilling in Yasuní National Park, a biodiverse region of the Amazon and home to indigenous communities. The move excited activists, but nearly two years later, oil drilling has not stopped and few of the block’s approximately 240 wells have been shut down.
Last year, Mexicans elected President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, an environmental engineer and former mayor of Mexico City known for her environmental agenda. Yet it faces crushing debt from state oil company Pemex and a grid that cannot meet Mexico’s growing energy demand. It is doubling its efforts in oil and gas exploration, hoping to increase Pemex’s crude production by nearly a third by 2030.
Globally, continued demand for fossil fuels makes it difficult for leaders to promote their own energy transitions. Furthermore, according to Dr. Hausmann, Mr. Petro’s focus on reducing his country’s carbon footprint does not help reduce the global footprint. “If a country unilaterally reduces its production, this gives OPEC more room to increase its production. [production]”, he says. “Cuts in oil production in one country do not reduce global oil production.”
