Russia Flexes in Venezuela but Does It Really Matter? – RedState
Venezuelan autocrat Nicolas Maduro is feeling the pressure. As the United States injects military assets into the Caribbean, Maduro begs for help from his protectors in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran.
Amid a buildup of U.S. forces in the Caribbean, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is reaching out to Russia, China and Iran to bolster its worn-out military capabilities and seek help, requesting defensive radars, aircraft repairs and potentially missiles, according to internal U.S. government documents obtained by The Washington Post.
The United States has built up a substantial military presence in the Caribbean. The final element of this group, the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, will arrive on station no later than the first half of next week; see the American carrier strike group immediately ordered to the Caribbean; Is armed conflict inevitable? – Red state. As I noted in this article, the concentration of forces carries its own logic. Once the force reaches a certain size, and I claim it has, it will be used, because not using it would seem like a weak bluff and a shameful descent; See Multiple Reports of Trump Authorizing Airstrikes in Venezuela Lead to Confusion – RedState.
In the past, Russia has very publicly expressed its support for Hugo Chavez and, now, for Maduro. This time, they are more reluctant. The current humiliating conflict in Ukraine leaves Russia with barely enough equipment for itself. There has also been a distinct lack of diplomatic efforts. Russia has not discussed the situation in Venezuela with President Trump, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry “Pornstache” Peskov. “This issue was not discussed at all and it was not on the agenda.” Perhaps unnecessarily, if my assertion about the broader meaning of the pressure campaign against Venezuela is correct (see Trump’s Campaign Against Venezuela Revives the Monroe Doctrine – RedState), Venezuela and Russia have renewed their “strategic partnership” which, allegedly, “strengthens bilateral cooperation in political and economic areas, including energy, mining, transportation and communications, as well as in security, counterterrorism and countering extremism.” I can see where Maduro thinks this might be his get out of jail free card, but I can also see him as waving a red cape in front of a bull.
Russian social media accounts claim that remnants of the Wagner PMC Group have been deployed to Venezuela. It’s supposed to show support…I guess…but it’s more of a provocation than a deterrent.
🚨LATEST NEWS
The PMC Wagner group deployed in Venezuela.🇷🇺🇻🇪 pic.twitter.com/0kVqRfxoao
– Alexei Berezutsky 🇷🇺🎖 (@aleksbrz11) October 27, 2025
The last time American forces faced the Wagner Group, things didn’t go very well.
BACKGROUND:
Three hundred dead and wounded Russians are a reminder of American air power in Syria – RedState
How US firepower turned Russia’s ‘gray zone’ attack blood red – RedState
Russian planes associated with arms trafficking and other illegal businesses recently visited Caracas, Venezuela.
Russia remains the main lifeline for Maduro. On Sunday, an Ilyushin Il-76 — one of the Russian planes sanctioned in 2023 by the United States for participating in the arms trade and transporting mercenaries — arrived in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, after a circuitous route over Africa to avoid Western airspace, according to Flightradar24. The Kremlin declined to comment on the letter, but on Friday evening the Foreign Ministry said Moscow supported Venezuela “in defending its national sovereignty” and was “ready to respond appropriately to the requests of our partners in light of emerging threats.”
Russia could send mercenaries and weapons to Venezuela, which is on the verge of war with the United States: yesterday a Russian Il-76 transport plane landed in Caracas.
What we know about the plane:
— Departure took place on October 22 from Moscow;
— There were stopovers in Yerevan,… pic.twitter.com/bwHTmkSFND— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) October 27, 2025
🚨 BREAKING: RUSSIA’S GIANT STOPS IN VENEZUELA 🇻🇪🇷🇺
A massive Russian Antonov An-124 cargo plane has landed in Caracas under tight security, sparking speculation that advanced S-400 air defense systems or new missile components could be on board. pic.twitter.com/xiS3C9VK6x
– World War III (@Worldwar_3_) October 31, 2025
Russia could send mercenaries and weapons to Venezuelawhich is on the brink of war with the United States – yesterday, a Russian The Il-76 transport plane landed in Caracas.
What do we know about aircraft:
— Departure took place on October 22 from Moscow;
— There were stopovers in Yerevan, Algiers, Rabat, Dakar and Nouakchott;
— This airline is already under sanctions for transporting goods on behalf of Wagner, transporting weapons and ammunition to Venezuela and Africa.
What do these Kremlin actions mean:
— Or the delivery of all types of weapons from Russia and Africa to Venezuela
— Or even the use of mercenaries affiliated with the old Wagner.
If the Americans nevertheless launch a ground invasion of Venezuela and Russian procurement involves human resources, the United States will encounter Wagner fighters with combat experience in Africa, Syria and Ukraine, as well as FPV drones.
An Il-76 can carry up to 50 tons, enough for small arms shipments or 100 to 200 personnel, but not a full battery like the S-400 (which would require multiple flights).
Of course, Putin could also send a few thousand Russian babushkas to Venezuela; we don’t know.
Maduro is also asking China and Iran for help.
Maduro, according to the documents, also penned a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping requesting “expanded military cooperation” between their two countries to counter “the escalation between the United States and Venezuela.”
In the letter, Maduro asked the Chinese government to speed up the production of radar detection systems by Chinese companies, likely so that Venezuela can strengthen its capabilities.
The documents indicate that Transportation Minister Ramón Celestino Velásquez also recently coordinated a shipment of military equipment and drones from Iran as he planned a visit to that country. He told an Iranian official that Venezuela needed “passive detection equipment,” “GPS jammers” and “almost certainly drones with a range of 1,000 km.” [600 mile] beach,” the documents state.
“In the missive, Maduro highlighted the severity of perceived U.S. aggression in the Caribbean, describing U.S. military action against Venezuela as action against China due to their shared ideology,” the U.S. documents said.
Chinese aid is unlikely, but it would not be shocking if U.S. forces encountered Shahed attack drones like those used by Russia.
In my opinion, Maduro may have overestimated the risk that Russia is willing to take to help him. Relations between the United States and Russia are strained, despite President Trump’s cheerful speeches, and a false move by Putin that goes beyond mere symbolic support for Maduro could lead the United States to provide much more aid to Ukraine than it currently does. In the past, Russia has sent transports and combat ships to the region to manipulate the United States (see Russian Submarine and Frigate Visit Havana – Now the Panic Begins – RedState), this time: crickets. An Il-76 appearing in Caracas makes for a great photo op, but it cannot carry a significant amount of equipment.
Russia finds itself in a position where it must show some support; otherwise, it would be considered a cowardly abandonment of a “strategic partnership.” But too much support is going to be very painful and ineffective.
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