Trump’s bright view of the economy doesn’t match what voters are seeing

WASHINGTON — Ahead of Tuesday’s election, Donald Trump assured Americans that prices are falling, the economy is recovering and the nation is prospering in a way that is the envy of the world.

Voters don’t seem to believe it.

Democrats won key elections, as exit polls painted an electorate gripped by fears that the United States was moving in the wrong direction, away from Trump’s glowing portrait of an ascendant nation.

Trump’s argument that he would make groceries, gasoline and other household necessities more affordable failed to gain traction, the exit survey suggests. On Election Day, he announced that the price of gasoline was falling to nearly $2 a gallon. (Nationally, the average price is more than $3 per gallon, according to AAA.)

“When energy goes down, everything else follows, and it does!!!” Trump wrote at Truth Social.

Still, NBC News exit polls showed that most voters in Tuesday’s election said they were remaining steady or “falling behind” in their personal finances. In Virginia and New Jersey, the percentage of voters who said they were “falling behind” was about double that of voters who said they were ahead.

“I have to give the president credit that inflation is holding steady around 2.5 percent, but the people in my district are really struggling,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., said in an interview. “Rent and housing prices continue to rise. The price of food continues to rise.”

“Overall,” she added, “the cost of living is an issue and I’ve been talking about it for months. The economy is extremely important and I think it was a big factor in the election.”

Georgia — a swing state that Trump won in 2024 but lost in 2020 — risks losing Republican congressional seats in next year’s midterm elections, she said.

Trump’s electoral strength comes from the emotional connection he has built with working-class voters. He excited his supporters in the 2024 elections when, in an attempt to troll his opponent Kamala Harris, he took off his suit jacket, slipped into an apron and manned a fry station at a Philadelphia-area McDonald’s.

Today, however, Trump risks appearing detached from the same forgotten slice of the electorate that he managed to mobilize in previous elections.

He delivered a campaign-style speech on the economy Wednesday, not at a small business or family farm, but at a forum for business leaders at a Miami sports arena. The highest package was $10,000; it sold out before the event.

Trump seems particularly proud of his use of tariffs to boost the economy, frequently touting his trade efforts. By making it more expensive to buy goods abroad, he is betting that more companies will invest in the United States, fueling a jobs boom.

But voters don’t seem convinced. Part of the reason could be confusing messaging, a former White House official said. Trump also uses tariffs as a cudgel against world leaders who defy him, leaving voters confused about exactly how tariffs improve life at home.

“When it comes to tariffs, they need to do a better job of explaining why tariffs work for America,” Michael Dubke, White House communications director during Trump’s first term, said in an interview. “Not because they allow him to negotiate and hold foreign powers accountable. How do they benefit the average American? And they’ve done a bad job at that and they need to improve it.”

Overall, only 34% of registered voters believe the Trump administration has met expectations on the economy, while 63% say it has fallen short, according to an NBC News poll conducted late last month.

The government shutdown has threatened the social safety net that ensures millions of Americans do not go hungry. In a social media post Tuesday, Trump invoked the food stamp program as leverage in his showdown with Democrats over reopening the government. He wrote that the program, known as SNAP, was excessive and that benefits would be denied unless Democrats relented and voted to reopen the government. (A White House spokesperson later said the administration would comply with a court order requiring benefits to be paid).

Trump has visited his golf clubs in West Palm Beach, Florida, and outside Washington, D.C., a total of five times since the shutdown began on October 1. In 2014, a year before entering the presidential race, he posted a note on social media attacking Barack Obama for playing golf despite “all the problems and difficulties facing the United States.”

Last week, Trump returned from a trip to Asia, where foreign leaders, eager to impress the president, lavished him with gifts. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi gave him a gold foil golf ball, combining two of Trump’s passions.

“We did not elect the president to travel the world and end foreign wars,” Greene said. “We elected the president to stop sending taxes and weapons to foreign wars – to stop engaging altogether. And seeing foreign leaders come to the White House through a revolving door doesn’t help Americans. It doesn’t lower the cost of living. It doesn’t do anything for health insurance premiums. It does nothing to solve the problems that really plague vulnerable segments of our population, especially young people.”

Over the weekend, Trump appeared at a “Great Gatsby”-themed party at his Mar-a-Lago resort, an event that produced a viral video of a partially dressed woman dancing in an oversized martini glass. Guests mingled at the oceanfront estate — some in Roaring Twenties attire — at a time when many furloughed federal employees are working without pay.

“Someone wasn’t thinking very clearly when they scheduled the Mar-a-Lago party,” Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker and Trump ally, said in an interview. “I’ll leave it at that.”

A senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, dismissed criticism of the party.

“It’s a Halloween party,” the official said. “Aren’t we supposed to celebrate Halloween?” »

The official also noted that the traveling press group was invited to attend the party, demonstrating that no one was trying to hide it.

In recent months, Trump has appeared focused on decorating the White House and ending foreign wars. He has made no secret that he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize next year, an honor he was denied in October. But his party’s political fate may instead depend on financial issues such as the cost of groceries, gasoline and health insurance.

The Democrats’ landslide victory Tuesday may have made a big impression on Trump and his Republican allies, who must retain control of Congress next year if their agenda advances.

On Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that “affordability is our goal.” It was the second time in two days that he mentioned the word “affordability” – and only the fourth time he used the word in his social media posts since the start of his second term on January 20.

“We have to continue to fight for lower interest rates, for less government spending and for prices to continue to fall, whether it’s gasoline, food or utilities,” John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, said in an interview. “We need to fight for these things and emphasize that Democrats are on the other side. So we have a lot of work to do.”