October jobs report may be gone forever as government shutdown drags on
The first Friday of November passed without the release of an employment report for October, a victim of the month-long government paralysis. After all, it may never be published.
The shutdown, now in its 37th day, has effectively shut down the Bureau of Labor Statistics and strained its ability to collect and produce timely data on the state of the U.S. economy. The agency last released the September inflation report because it was a key ingredient in calculating next year’s Social Security benefits.
But the vast majority of BLS staff — just over 2,000 federal employees — are on furlough until Congress restores government funding. Until then, the BLS is unable to collect data on consumer prices and employment. In this case, that could mean the October jobs report will never be assembled and released.
“The data has not been collected and it is difficult to do so a month (or more) later,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote on social media.
The BLS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Yet alternatives in the private sector have sought to fill the gaps. Earlier this week, payroll processing company ADP reported that employers added 42,000 jobs in October, a figure that matches analysts’ projections that hiring would be scarce.
Corporate layoffs have increased in recent weeks, with Amazon, Target, Delta Airlines and others cutting jobs. Data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed 153,074 job losses in October, the highest number since 2003.
As for the shutdown, senators’ initial optimism that the impasse could be broken had all but faded by Friday. Instead, Democrats were poised to reject a short-term Republican funding bill for the 15th time.
They remain dissatisfied with Republican policy concessions that fail to address their demands to expand Affordable Care Act subsidies, which reduce monthly premiums for many Americans. As the shutdown dragged on, the Federal Aviation Administration reduced flight capacity at more than 40 U.S. airports as the ranks of unpaid air traffic controllers thinned.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that the shutdown prompted the Trump administration to cut its fourth-quarter economic growth projection in half, to 2%.
“The economic impact of the shutdown is much worse than expected because it has been going on for so long,” Hassett told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo.
