What FAA’s Flight Reduction Plan Means for Safety and Cancellations

The Federal Aviation Administration plans to reduce flights by 10 percent at 40 major U.S. airports in response to the current U.S. government shutdown. Hundreds of flights were canceled on Friday, the first day the policy took effect (with a 4 percent reduction increasing to 10 percent next Friday).

The move is intended to ease pressure on understaffed air traffic controllers, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said at a news conference Wednesday. Controllers are working without pay during the federal government shutdown, which has disrupted flights.

“We had to check ‘What is our job?’ said Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy at the event. “Is it ‘making sure there are minimal delays or cancellations’ or is our job to make sure we make the tough decisions to keep the airspace safe?

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To find out how this transition will take place and what its challenges are, Scientific American spoke with Michael McCormick, associate professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, coordinator of its air traffic management program and former air traffic controller.

[An edited transcript of the interview follows.]

Was the FAA’s decision surprising?

I’m not surprised. This is actually a strategy they’ve been using in the New York metro market since before summer 2024. [The government] I went to the airlines and they said, “We need you to reduce your flights by 10 percent.” »

And the airlines were able to do it. One of the tactics they employed was: they “upgraded” their planes. This is the industry term for flying larger aircraft.

So, by making more seats available on routes to these airports, they were able to get closer to, or achieve, what their passenger flow was before the reduction.

This also happened following the January elections Collision at Ronald Reagan Washington National AirportA fatal accident of a helicopter and an airlinerRIGHT?

The FAA has reduced the number of flights that can serve Washington National on an hourly basis. This is a proven strategy to mitigate the impact, whether in terms of staffing or excess demand, on major airports.

Have we ever tried this on a national scale?

Today, its scope and scale is much greater than what they used before. As long as they get there at a reasonable pace, and that’s what they seem to be doing, it should be manageable for airlines to work with their schedulers.

How will they decide which flights to remove?

They will look at which flights have the fewest passengers, in terms of percentage of seats available, [a measurement] known as the “load factor”. And these will be the first flights [for which] they will [ask]“Is it possible to move these passengers to other flights, especially if we increase the size of the planes on these other flights?”

Additionally, airlines will look at their major hubs to see which of these flights we can move to other hubs, those that are not affected, or operate direct flights rather than connections.

Are there any other benefits to this reduction?

Another benefit, aside from keeping the safety level where it needs to be by reducing the number of flights, is that it creates predictability for airlines. That’s something that’s been missing since the government shutdown started, because we don’t know if we’re going to be short-staffed until we’re short-staffed.

The controllers are not going to tell management: “I won’t be there in two weeks from Tuesday. » It’s just that some of them are not at work today. So this means that the FAA and airlines must react to these personnel shortages rather than plan for them. Airlines can now plan for this, allowing them to better communicate with their passengers. They can also better plan the operation of their system based on where planes and crews need to be in order to meet the new schedules.

The disadvantage of [the strategy] is: you’re going to cancel flights where they don’t need to be canceled because staffing levels can be 100% at LAX. [Los Angeles International Airport] tomorrow, but it’s okay [mean] reduce theft [by] about 4 percent regardless.

How stressed are air traffic controllers at the moment? This must be very real.

Oh, absolutely. The air traffic system was in crisis before the government shutdown. [The FAA was] runs more than 3,000 controllers across the United States. Many controllers worked long overtime hours, [with] 60 hour work weeks. Since the closure, this has only exacerbated this situation.

And then you add in the personal stressors of uncertainty about when you’re going to get paid. How will you manage this financially for you and your family?

This causes a lot of anxiety for controllers who have to report to work. It’s the last thing they need. They already face all the stressors of work, the cognitive workload, the time constraints of making thousands of decisions, and perhaps overtime. You’ve already worked that week, so this could disrupt your sleep schedule. And that leads to cumulative fatigue.

With the culture of air traffic control, you are used to being in charge. And now you’ve lost control of a major aspect of your life.

How far can we push all this?

We are in a whole new world right now. We have already passed the level of the last stop. This means that every week, every day will impact these controllers more and more, with no end in sight.

What is the most important point to make to the public about this decision?

One of the things I would focus on is safety, which remains the FAA’s number one priority when it comes to air traffic control. By recalling the system, it ensures that safety remains the priority.

Efficiency can hurt, but safety can’t.

And if these people ever see that security is compromised by what is happening, will they say so?

Oh, absolutely. You can always count on the controllers to achieve this. They live and breathe security every day. And if they see something dangerous, they talk about it.

I have to fly tomorrow, that’s why I’m asking.

Yes, I have no problem flying. I’ll take the plane tomorrow.