Cop30 live: summit president says ‘everybody will lose’ as fears rise that conference will end without a deal | World news
Cop presidency issues plea for nations to come together and agree a deal
Damian Carrington
After a fast moving night, with petrostates accused of blocking a plan for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, a large group of developed and developing nations saying that including a roadmap is a red line for them, and civil society accusing rich nations of failing to fulfil their obligations to fund climate action in poor nations, the Brazilian president of Cop30, André Corrêa do Lago, has issued a plea for cooperation.
“We need to preserve this [Paris Accord] regime with the spirit of cooperation, not in the spirit of who is going to win or is willing to lose,” he said. “Because we know if we don’t strengthen this, everybody will lose.”
The world is currently on target for a catastrophic 2.6C of global heating and funds to protect people against climate impacts are puny. “Extreme weather events are telling us that the work we do here is urgent,” Do Lago said. He is usually an energetic and charismatic speaker, but looked tired – he may well have had no sleep last night.
One key message was that the Paris agreement was working and had achieved much more than critics say: ”This regime [caused] not only the action of countries, the action of citizens, but the action of communities, business, technology.” But it must be strengthened, he said.
Cop decisions are made by consensus, giving effective vetoes to small groups of countries, like the fossil-fuel rich Arab group. But Do Lago defended consensus: “The same consensus that exasperates so many people – that is the strength of this regime,” as it sends the most powerful messages to the world.
Do Lago emphasised the huge benefits of climate action: “We are creating a new economy that offers amazing opportunities for growth, amazing opportunities for jobs. This is and has to be a positive agenda. This cannot be an agenda that divides us.” But he said the pull out of the US under climate denier Donald Trump was a challenge.
“But let’s not stress divides now, in the moments we have left to reach an agreement, we need to preserve this regime,” he said.
Do Lago said there was going to be a meeting of all the countries’ ministers this morning to try and thrash out a deal, As things stand, that is a huge task.
Key events
While countries remain deadlocked in Belem on the crucial issue of phasing out fossil fuels, advocates from the UK have been cheered by other aspects of the draft text. ‘Fossil fuels’ may not be there but ‘just transition’ is, as my colleague Damien Gayle explains:
Asad Rehman, chief executive of Friends of the Earth, has described the inclusion of working in the Cop30 text of a “just transition mechanism” as “northing short of momentous”.
In a rare upbeat moment for civil society organisations at the UN climate talks, several have now come forward to praise the inclusion of reference to the just transition, which comes after years of campaigning.
Rehman said:
It’s nothing short of momentous that a mechanism for a fair and just transition has made it into the draft text. This injects some hope that this process can deliver concrete outcomes and that we can secure a transition to a greener future that is fair, just as well as clean.
This victory comes after tens of thousands of our supporters in the UK stood alongside a global movement representing workers, climate justice campaigners and youth organisations who not only got it on the table, but were instrumental in making sure it stayed in the text. This reaffirms what we’ve always known: people power is the answer. By harnessing our collective strength we have changed the conversation at these talks.
As Damien notes, ‘just transition’ does indeed feature in the draft text, although it appears within a list of noted advances, such as loss and damage, that have occurred in recent years. It doesn’t mention the mechanism that many have been pushing for in Belem, which means any jubilation on this could be slightly premature.
Thank you to my colleague Matthew Taylor for his sterling work helming the blog thus far.
I’m Oliver Milman in New York and I will be taking on the blog for the latter stages of what is scheduled to be the final day of a Cop30 summit that has brought floods, fire and now (metaphorically at least) quagmire. We will see how things unfold from here.
Damian Carrington
But Bas Eickhout MEP, member of the European Parliament’s delegation to COP30, has a less optimistic take.
With this text as it stands, no deal is better than a bad deal. Failure to reach an agreement on a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels would not only be a big win for petrostates, but also for Trump and his hard right allies.
We will continue to push for a strong agreement that includes the phase out of fossil fuels and tripling ambition on climate adaptation. No one can seriously expect us to win the fight on the climate crisis if we don’t deal with the elephant in the room: phasing out fossil fuels.
Damian Carrington
The key draft text issued by the Brazilian presidency has infuriated many nations – Prof Michael Jacobs, a political economist, argues it is a tactic.
The text does not include either a roadmap to transitioning away from fossil fuels” wanted by a large group of developed and developing countries, nor a commitment to a tripling of adaptation finance – money from rich nations to protect poorer communities from climate impacts.
Writing on LinkedIn he says: “By issuing a text that leans so far to one side – in this case, towards the Arab Group and Like-Minded Group (China, India and some other developing countries) – the presidency is seeking to provoke a public row in the plenary session. This will tell the Arab Group and LMDCs that they have to compromise. Brazil will then be able to pressure them to accept a text more acceptable to the Least Developed Countries group, Latins, islands and developed countries.”
Carbon Brief has a quick update on its “When will COP30 end?” sweepstake and it is tough reading for sleep deprived delegates…
The deadline for submissions was 23:59 last night. Thanks to the more than 300 of you (?!) who entered your guesses for when you think the gavel will go down in Belém.
My colleague Robert McSweeney has crunched the numbers and says the median time across all the entries is exactly 7pm tomorrow. (That’s Saturday for those of you who are losing track of which day it is.)
Dharna Noor
Most Americans say the US should take ambitious climate action with or without other countries.
From centrist politicians to hardline activists, Americans at Cop30 are repeating one refrain: Donald Trump doesn’t represent us on climate policy. A new poll shared exclusively with the Guardian lends credence to that sentiment.
A strong majority of US voters — 65% — believe the US should undertake ambitious climate action even if other states do not, shows the new survey from progressive polling group Data for Progress. That includes majorities of Democrats and Independents at 85% and 63% respectively. And it includes a plurality, 47%, of Republicans 47%.
By contrast, just 25% of voters said that the US should not take bold climate action if other countries fail to do so.
Perhaps even more strikingly, a majority of US voters — 55% — support a global phaseout of fossil fuels, like coal and oil, shows the new poll. These fuels are responsible for some 90% of all planet-heating carbon emissions.
Most voters also said the US should also make its own national commitment to phase out fossil fuels. 54% of voters — including 74% of Democrats and 54% of Independents — backed a national phaseout by the century’s end.
The new data was based on a web panel held last week, to which 1,224 U.S. likely voters responded. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and remembered presidential vote.
Nina Lakhani
Elisa Morgera, the UN special rapporteur for human rights and climate change, said the draft text does not comply with the ICJ climate ruling.
There is nothing there that makes any tangible progress and a few instances of explicit regression, including what the ICJ advisory opinion confirmed about states responsibility under international law to show stringent due diligence and highest possible ambition in curtailing global warming to 1.5. Crucially, there is a glaring gap on fossil fuels which under international law, notably international human rights law, states must transition away from with the developed nations which have contributed most to the climate crisis going first.
The transition entails binding obligations to provide sufficient finance, appropriate technologies and good-faith cooperation for developing countries to leap-frog into a renewables-based economy and avoid any further harm from fossil fuels on health, nature and economies, on top of further climate harm. It’s essential to understand that many fossil fuel-producer and exporter countries are defossilizing at home, relying on cheapest and more secure renewables, while increasing the dependence on fossil fuels in the countries most affected by climate change.
The draft text does not align with science, with law, with the legitimate demands of children, youth, frontline communities, the medical profession, the climate justice movements, and ultimately with the very objective of the UNFCCC.
Here’s is an explainer on the ICJ ruling and Cop30 by my colleague Nina Lakhani.
Reaction to the draft text is still coming in. Cop veteran Harjeet Singh, from the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation said:
If the current draft text is accepted here in Belém, COP30 will go down in history as the deadliest talk show ever produced. Negotiators spend days discussing what to discuss and inventing new dialogues solely to avoid the actions that matter: committing to a just transition away from fossil fuels and putting money on the table.
We are done with empty talk as a stalling tactic. Real course correction demands three things right now: Establish the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) for a true Just Transition; adopt a binding legal roadmap to phase out fossil fuels; and finally, force wealthy nations to open their purses and put grant-based public finance on the table for adaptation and loss and damage. Anything less is a talk-shop leading to death and destruction.
Mohamed Adow, founder and director of Power Shift Africa, also joined the chorus of dismay at the revised text.
After two weeks of talks, COP30 is drawing to a close with proposed final texts that fall dramatically short of what the world needs. What was meant to be a flexible climate agreement designed to ratchet up ambition has instead been whittled down through horse-trading to the lowest common denominator,” he said. “The result is a package that neither reflects scientific urgency nor responds to the lived realities of vulnerable communities already contending with climate collapse.
He said the draft texts were mostly placeholders that postponed ambition on key issues like just transition, adaptation and climate finance to another year.
For Africa and other vulnerable regions, the disappointment is acute. We arrived in Belém with priorities shaped by escalating climate impacts, ranging from droughts and cyclones to floods and food insecurity. Instead of concrete support, what we have now is watered-down language shaped more by politics than by the severity of climatic impacts. The biggest catastrophe of our times is not waiting for governments to gather courage, and communities on the frontlines cannot afford to continue paying the price for global hesitation.
Amid wide expectations that this Cop will continue beyond the scheduled 6pm finish this evening, he refused to give up hope:
There is still a narrow window for leadership. If developed countries step forward with real, grant-based finance, credible timelines and mechanisms capable of coordinating support, COP30 could yet deliver something more than disappointment. The world needs clear commitments, not rhetorical flourishes; coordination, not delay; solidarity, not strategic ambiguity. In the next few hours, there is still time to be ambitious and sincere, and the stakes for vulnerable communities could not be higher.
Oliver Milman
As negotiations at Cop30 remain mired over whether the world should ditch fossil fuels, some delegates in Belem have other pressing concerns – their accommodation is about to sail away.
Two large cruise ships docked near Belem to help solve the dearth of affordable hotel rooms at the summit are set to depart on Saturday, whether negotiations are finished or not.
The MSC Seaview and Costa Diadema were chartered by Brazil’s government amid a severe lack of available accommodation for thousands of delegates who arrived from around the world. The two ships, with a combined 6,000 beds, are docked in Belem’s Port of Outeiro, which was upgraded to receive cruise ships ahead of Cop30.
But guests will have to check out by 8am tomorrow, Cop30 organizers said, with some delegates saying they have been told it is best if they depart tonight. “Due to tidal conditions, the ships will depart from the Port of Outeiro later on Saturday morning,” a Cop30 spokesman said.
This means if, as seems likely, Cop30 overruns, delegates will have to scramble to find alternative arrangements. One negotiator said that it took them an hour each day to get to the summit venue on a bus from their cruise ship abode, with loud music from bands playing in corridors often keeping them awake late at night.
“We have to check out and find somewhere, I don’t know where,” said the negotiator. “I just hope it’s not another boat.”
The UN secretary-general has called out Saudi Arabia’s blocking tactics
Damian Carrington
The UN secretary-general António Guterres has identified Saudi Arabia as leading moves to block key outcomes at the Cop30 climate summit, the Financial Times has reported. It cites those present at a meeting with EU negotiators as the sources.
In separate bilateral meetings at COP30, those present said Guterres alluded again to Saudi blocking tactics, and noted COP30 talks could fail as a result.
Other European officials also said that Saudi Arabia had been more vehement in stating its positions this year than at previous climate summits. “My read is . . . that the Arab Group is strong-arming the Brazilians [COP presidency hosts],” one negotiator said.
Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for Guterres, said the attendees’ interpretation of the closed-door meetings was “inaccurate”. “Saudi Arabia’s position that was well known by all was referred to, but not singled out,” he said.
Guterres also identified some developed countries’ opposition to adaptation funding pledges in the meeting with EU ministers, Dujarric said, and had separately met with Saudi Arabia too.
Saudi Arabia has a decades-long history in blocking action on climate change, as environment editor Damian Carrington has set out here.
Cop presidency issues plea for nations to come together and agree a deal
Damian Carrington
After a fast moving night, with petrostates accused of blocking a plan for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, a large group of developed and developing nations saying that including a roadmap is a red line for them, and civil society accusing rich nations of failing to fulfil their obligations to fund climate action in poor nations, the Brazilian president of Cop30, André Corrêa do Lago, has issued a plea for cooperation.
“We need to preserve this [Paris Accord] regime with the spirit of cooperation, not in the spirit of who is going to win or is willing to lose,” he said. “Because we know if we don’t strengthen this, everybody will lose.”
The world is currently on target for a catastrophic 2.6C of global heating and funds to protect people against climate impacts are puny. “Extreme weather events are telling us that the work we do here is urgent,” Do Lago said. He is usually an energetic and charismatic speaker, but looked tired – he may well have had no sleep last night.
One key message was that the Paris agreement was working and had achieved much more than critics say: ”This regime [caused] not only the action of countries, the action of citizens, but the action of communities, business, technology.” But it must be strengthened, he said.
Cop decisions are made by consensus, giving effective vetoes to small groups of countries, like the fossil-fuel rich Arab group. But Do Lago defended consensus: “The same consensus that exasperates so many people – that is the strength of this regime,” as it sends the most powerful messages to the world.
Do Lago emphasised the huge benefits of climate action: “We are creating a new economy that offers amazing opportunities for growth, amazing opportunities for jobs. This is and has to be a positive agenda. This cannot be an agenda that divides us.” But he said the pull out of the US under climate denier Donald Trump was a challenge.
“But let’s not stress divides now, in the moments we have left to reach an agreement, we need to preserve this regime,” he said.
Do Lago said there was going to be a meeting of all the countries’ ministers this morning to try and thrash out a deal, As things stand, that is a huge task.
Jonathan Watts
‘The fight continues,’ vows high-ambition nations at Cop30.
To cheers and loud applause, Colombia led a fight back by dozens of countries to try to revive the roadmap for a fossil fuel phase-out on Friday morning as Cop30 entered its final scheduled day.
With this core demand currently removed from the negotiating text at the behest of major oil producing countries, the Colombia environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres warned the Belém climate conference was at risk of being decided by vetoes, rather than ambition.
“The message is unequivocal – we must leave this Cop with a global roadmap that guides us not symbolically but concretely our collective effort to phase out fossil fuels. We need global ownership, a map do camino (roadmap) that truly moves us forward,” she said to a packed and emotional press conference room, flanked by ministers from more than a dozen countries.
In a clear sign of the slow pace of progress at the United Nations talks, Colombia and the Netherlands announced they will hold a first international conference on the transition away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, next april 28-29. They said this will be a separate but complementary process for high-ambition nations.
“We have taken this step because, simply, we cannot wait any longer,” said Maina Talia, Minister for Home Affairs, Climate Change and Environment of Tuvalu, which aims to stage the second such conference in 2027 alongside other island nations. “The Pacific came to Cop30 demanding a survival roadmap away from fossil fuels. Yet this text does not even name the threat to our existence. This process is failing us so we will not wait.”
The planned series of annual conferences would bring together nations, businesses and civil society groups to create an exit ramp from the era of coal, gas and oil by sharing best practices and working together on trade, financing and technology.
During the often raucous session, the loudest cheers were for a speech by Juan Carlos Monterrey, the climate envoy for Panama, who called for people outside the conference to make their frustration heard.
“The current text fails the Amazon, fails science, it fails justice, and fails the people,” he said. “There is no mention of phase down or phase out or ending deforestation, nothing.” He said the text was even failing to repeat the language on fossil fuels already agreed in previous years..
Referring to scientific warnings that the world is fast approaching – and may even have passed – dangerous tipping points, he poured scorn on the current iteration of the negotiating text: “Our elementary school kids are reading textbooks that are more science-based and more in line with reality than the text we have here at the climate cop where we are supposed to fix this problem.”
The Brazilian presidency has said it removed the reference to a roadmap because too many countries were opposed, but these forces have not so far gone public – a sign perhaps that they know the vast majority of people in the world want their governments to take stronger climate action.
“We have voices from every single continent. This is a global effort and we are coming together to push at a global level to make sure this happens,” said Tina Stege, Climate Envoy for Marshall Islands. “We are really grateful for the leadership of Marina SIlva and Lula’s call to transition away and for his call to take forward this momentum at G20. Countries all around the world are here to give him the mandate to launch the roadmap. We know there are some who are not convinced but we will not wait, we can’t afford to wait. As a nation that is just two meters above sea level we know that climate action cannot wait. This roadmap is inevitable, it’s happening.”
The press conference wrapped up with defiant words from Colombia’s Irene Vélez Torres. “The fight continues,” she said.
The EU’s climate chief has warned Cop30 could end without a deal after host Brazil proposed an agreement that does not include a roadmap away from fossil fuels, AFP is reporting.
“What is now on the table is unacceptable. And given that we’re so far away from where we should be, it’s unfortunate to say, but we’re really facing a no-deal scenario,” European Commissioner for Climate, Wopke Hoekstra, told reporters at in Belem.
We understand Hoekstra is due to speak in more detail soon and will say: “This is in no way close to the ambition we need on mitigation. We are disappointed with the text currently on the table. We are willing to be ambitious on adaptation, but we would like to make clear that any language on finance should squarely be within the commitment reached last year on the NCQG.”
Damian Carrington
Cop presidency issues a plea for nations to come together and agree a deal
The Brazilian president of Cop30, André Corrêa do Lago, has issued a plea to the world’s nations to come together and agree a deal here in Belém.
The negotiations are fraught at the moment, with a stand-off over starting a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, and rows over the provision of climate finance from rich nations to poorer ones.
“We need to preserve this [Paris Accord] regime with the spirit of cooperation, not in the spirit of who is going to win or is willing to lose. Because we know if we don’t strengthen this, everybody will lose.”
