49ers vs. Panthers prediction: Odds, pick, where to watch, stream ‘MNF’

The San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers on the Week 12 edition of “Monday Night Football,” with San Francisco coming off a resounding victory over division rival Arizona Cardinals after improved to 7-4 with victory. The Niners have alternated wins and losses every week since getting off to a 3-0 start, and they’ll look to break that streak and keep pace in the NFC West division race with a win over Carolina here.

Carolina earned an overtime victory against the division rival Atlanta Falcons last week to improve to 6-5. After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost Sunday eveningthe Panthers now have a chance to take sole possession of first place in the NFC South, which they can capture with a victory on Monday.

Which of these two teams will achieve consecutive victories? We’ll know soon enough. But before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the match.

Where to watch 49ers vs Panthers live

• Date: Monday November 14 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
• TV: ESPN/ABC | Flow: Fubo (Try for free)
• Follow: CBS Sports app
• Odds: 49ers -7.5, O/U 49.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

When the Panthers have the ball

Carolina is coming off an unusual offensive game in which they didn’t run the ball particularly well but absolutely exploded in the passing game. The Panthers only ran for 67 yards last week against the Falcons, but Bryce Young went an incredible 31 of 45 for 448 yards and three touchdowns.

The 49ers, meanwhile, played a very similar game against Arizona’s offense to the one Carolina played against Atlanta’s defense: San Francisco held the Cardinals to just 36 rushing yards (on 14 carries), but allowed 452 passing yards as Jacoby Brissett set the NFL record for completions in a game.

So the question here is whether we are in for a repeat performance on both ends of the pitch. It’s worth noting that the Falcons game alone accounts for 22.8 percent of Young’s passing yards for the season — and he played in 10 of the team’s 11 games. The Panthers want the running game to be the focus of their offense, and they probably won’t pass too much unless forced to.

San Francisco’s defense is struggling everywhere, with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Mykel Williams and Yetur Gross-Matos all on injured reserve and even guys like Tatum Bethune and Robert Beal Jr. either questionable (Beal) or out (Bethune). Even Luke Gifford, who could be asked to replace Bethune at linebacker, is listed as questionable. And they’ll have guys like Keion White, Sam Okuayinonu and Clelin Ferrell alongside Bryce Huff.

The Niners have been slightly better against the run (22nd in success rate) than against the pass (26th), but they haven’t been particularly good against either. Obviously, much of this is due to their various injuries; but these guys won’t be back for this game. The Panthers should be able to successfully move the ball downfield with Rico Dowdle and relieve Young to carry the offense.

If and when Young moves back, it would be surprising if Deommodore Lenoir follows Tetairoa McMillan onto the field. Lenoir lined up at left corner on all 624 snaps he played on the perimeter, according to Pro Football Focus, so the Panthers can generate a better matchup by lining up T-Mac opposite Renardo Green if they want. Green is no slouch, but Lenoir is the team’s best corner. Young’s other weapons aren’t very interesting.

When the 49ers have the ball

Brock Purdy returned last week for San Francisco and immediately showed why there was never any controversy over who was going to be the team’s starting quarterback, despite the fact that Mac Jones had some success when playing center in his place.

Purdy went 19 of 26 for 200 yards and three touchdowns, layering the ball beautifully all over the field and spreading it to players like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. McCaffrey even had one of his most successful games of the season on the ground, rushing 13 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns, and you could see how much open space he had to run with a greater threat of a downfield passing attack available for San Francisco.

The Niners are still going to build the plane around a lot of touches for CMC, who is averaging 24.3 carries plus receptions per game so far this year. There will be a ton of pressure on Carolina’s linebackers and safeties to deal with him in space, and honestly, there just aren’t many players at those positions who are equipped to do it — especially when players at those same positions also have to worry about being beaten by Kittle up the middle or at the seam.

It doesn’t help that Carolina is without Trevin Wallace and Christian Rozeboom, depriving the Panthers of their two starting inside linebackers. Guys like Claudin Cherelus, Maema Njongmeta and perhaps Bam Martin-Scott will need to play bigger roles, while there will be even more pressure on Trevon Moehrig’s Nick Scott and potential slot corner Corey Thornton to deal with these two demons as well.

It will be interesting to see if the Panthers use Jaycee Horn to shadow a receiver, and if so, whether it’s Jennings or Ricky Pearsall, who looked like the better perimeter option earlier in the year before getting injured and missing extended time. The Niners don’t have a true No. 1, so there isn’t necessarily an obvious guy for Horn to follow. If he does travel, I’d bet it will be with Jennings, who lines up at the line of scrimmage more often than Pearsall, who goes into motion more often.

The Panthers’ best bet here is to plug the running game and turn the 49ers into a one-dimensional passing attack, then generate considerable pressure on Purdy. This is obviously easier said than done, and even if you can do it, you still have to worry about all the different weapons the Niners can throw at you in the air.

Prediction

The Niners looked great when Brock Purdy returned to the field last week, and it was against a better defense than the one they’ll face Monday night. I know the Panthers finally found a way to throw the ball all over the field themselves last week, but it remains an aberration when it comes to their season-long performance. If San Francisco can control Rico Dowdle, I think the Niners should roll.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Panthers 16