The U.S. plan for Ukraine-Russia peace is shifting. Here’s where things stand : NPR

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

President Trump had set a deadline Thursday for Ukraine to accept a deal to cede territory to Russia, including territory that Russia has not captured on the battlefield in nearly four years of war. But now that deadline appears to be shifted and the terms of the deal are changing. The White House says there has been, quote, “tremendous progress” in negotiations this week, but that more negotiations are needed. NPR’s Michele Kelemen is here now to talk about some of this frenetic diplomacy. Hi Michele.

MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE: Hello, Ailsa.

CHANG: OK, so where are things right now?

KELEMEN: Well, that timeline, as you mentioned, is moving forward a little bit. President Trump has said he tends to extend deadlines if things go well. And in this case, he says his team has made progress. He sends his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow. And his Army Secretary, Dan Driscoll, who is a longtime friend of Vice President JD Vance, also plays an unusual diplomatic role here. Driscoll was in Abu Dhabi, shuttling between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Ukrainian officials have suggested that President Volodymyr Zelensky may soon visit the United States to finalize this deal with Trump. But Trump now says he hopes to meet with Zelensky and Putin, but only when a deal is closer, thus pushing things back a bit further.

CHANG: OK, this has been a little confusing because we’ve seen so many different views from the White House on Ukraine. For example, Trump reprimanded the Ukrainian president earlier this year, right? – telling him he didn’t hold any cards. And then, a few months ago, he said he thought Ukraine could regain all of its territory. So I’m just wondering how are the Ukrainians dealing with all these mixed signals?

KELEMEN: Yeah, it’s kind of a boost, isn’t it?

CHANG: Yeah.

KELEMEN: You know, I was listening to an online discussion today hosted by the Atlantic Council – it’s a Washington think tank – and I heard an expert, Leslie Shedd, say that she thinks the Ukrainian president has been pretty smart about this. Listen.

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LESLIE SHEDD: He’s working very hard trying to figure out how to say yes to peace, how to say yes to what the president has proposed. I think it’s smart because I frankly think there will be almost no deal that Putin will accept.

KELEMEN: And his views on Russian President Vladimir Putin were shared by other speakers on this panel, including Steve Biegun, who was deputy secretary of state during Trump’s first term.

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STEVE BIEGUN: The reality is that Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire. Putin does not want negotiations. Putin does not want peace. Putin wants Ukraine.

KELEMEN: Biegun says it’s a good thing that Trump wants to end this war, but he says the United States really needs to be realistic about this and keep the pressure on Putin. But Trump, you know, seems really in a hurry right now. He is also under heavy pressure from some members of his MAGA movement to focus more on his country and stop supporting Ukraine. And of course, Russia is also putting a lot of pressure on him.

CHANG: That’s right. And then, over the weekend, a 28-point plan was leaked calling on Ukraine to cede territory. So, do we know if this part has changed?

KELEMEN: I mean, the one that was leaked reads like a wish list for Russia. Some experts have even suggested that it is part of a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at driving a wedge between the United States and Europe. Trump says it was his plan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said so, too, and he rushed to Geneva last weekend to sit down with the Ukrainians and put aside some of the more controversial points, like demands on Western European allies. Rubio said he has made progress. The president says this has been refined. It seems like it’s a shorter deal on the table now, with more talk of, you know, a ceasefire along the current lines. But this is something Trump has proposed before, and Russia wasn’t interested. It is therefore not really clear what agreement will result and whether Russia will accept it.

And I have to say, just to remind you, that the Russians, throughout all of this, continued to carry out deadly drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, killing Ukrainian civilians, including children, and targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. And that’s really another reason why U.S. officials say this problem needs to be resolved quickly before another difficult winter before war.

CHANG: Indeed. This is NPR’s Michele Kelemen speaking to us from the State Department. Thank you very much Michele.

KELEMEN: Thank you.

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