U.S. military buildup near Venezuela sparks speculation of intervention : NPR

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro dances during a march as part of “Venezuelan Students’ Day” at Miraflores in Caracas, Venezuela, November 21.

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BOGOTÁ, Colombia — A U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean Sea near Venezuela is raising hopes of an armed strike against that country, but also raising fears it could create a South American quagmire.
Tensions rise as the Trump administration amasses warships and thousands of troops in the Caribbean. On Monday, he designated the Venezuelan government, led by President Nicolas Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization. And while saying he was willing to talk with Maduro on Tuesday, President Trump also suggested that the authoritarian leader’s days were numbered.

But a U.S. military intervention, strongly supported by many Venezuelans, including opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, would be unpopular at home and extremely risky.
“This warm idea that Maduro falls and the next day María Corina Machado walks into the presidential palace and everyone lives happily ever after is fantastic,” said Phil Gunson, Caracas-based for the International Crisis Group. “That’s not going to happen.”
Since his first term, President Trump has pushed to remove Maduro, who crushed Venezuelan democracy and plunged the country into economic misery, prompting some 8 million Venezuelans to flee the country. Trump has long encouraged Venezuelan military officers to overthrow Maduro and in 2019 recognized opposition lawmaker Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate president.
But Maduro clung to power, prompting Trump in his second term to consider military options.

The most extreme would be a full-fledged American invasion, modeled on the American takeover of the small isthmus of Panama in 1989, which would have involved 27,000 American troops and led to the arrest of that country’s dictator, Manuel Noriega.

But even if Trump sent the largest U.S. naval flotilla to the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis, experts say the 15,000 U.S. troops aboard those warships would not be enough to take control of Venezuela. This South American country is larger than Texas and is home to rugged mountains and Amazon jungle.

If the United States mounted a more robust invasion force, it could quickly overpower the Venezuelan army. Indeed, many of its poorly paid rank-and-file soldiers could change sides. But unconventional forces would respond significantly, said Jeremy McDermott, co-director of Insight Crime, which analyzes organized crime in Latin America.
“Any serious ground invasion of Venezuela would be extremely complex,” McDermott said. “You put troops on the ground almost everywhere in Venezuela, particularly in Caracas and along the border areas, and you are going to face armed resistance.”
That resistance, he said, would include pro-Maduro militias, known as “colectivos,” as well as at least 1,000 battle-hardened Venezuelan-based Colombian guerrillas who sympathize with Maduro and would act as a pro-regime paramilitary force in the event of a U.S. invasion. Additionally, the Maduro government distributes weapons to civilians and trains them to shoot.
“It’s a people’s war to defend our country,” a military trainer told Venezuelan state television.
Yet most Venezuelans despise Maduro and voted against him in last year’s presidential election, seen by many — including the U.S. government — as having been stolen by his regime. One Venezuelan analyst, who asked to remain anonymous for his safety, said he had seen a poll, which has not yet been made public, that shows most Venezuelans would support U.S. military action to remove Maduro.

“There is no other solution,” said Zair Mundaray, a former Venezuelan government prosecutor now living in exile in Florida.
Last week, opposition leader Machado released a “freedom manifesto” for a post-Maduro future calling for the restoration of human rights, free markets, freedom of expression, clean elections and the return of Venezuelan exiles. She said: “We are on the cusp of a new era.”
Meanwhile, anti-government influencers in Venezuela are promoting AI-generated videos fantasizing about US intervention. One shows Maduro in an orange prison jumpsuit in the custody of US authorities, with narration that says: “All Venezuelans want this as a Christmas present.”
That stands in stark contrast to a new CBS News and YouGov poll in which 70 percent of Americans opposed U.S. military action in Venezuela. In the same poll, only 13% of respondents considered Venezuela a “major threat” to the United States.
As a result, even a limited strike against Maduro, such as a capture and kill operation like that against Osama bin Laden – responsible for the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks – seems doubtful, said Venezuelan opposition lawmaker Henrique Capriles. Unlike Bin Laden, “do Americans really care about Maduro?” » said Capriles. “No way.”

Trump may be betting that his military buildup will create a pressure cooker in Caracas that will provoke a palace coup by military officers. But this is far from the case, as Maduro has surrounded himself with Cuban loyalists and bodyguards.
Vladimir Villegas, a radio show host in Caracas, says the impact of the U.S. pressure campaign so far has been to create more cohesion in the ranks of Maduro’s regime as well as more persecution and repression against political opposition.
Even if Maduro were toppled, there is no guarantee that the new leader would forge a stable, democratic government, Capriles says. He points out that Maduro controls all branches of government while members of his United Socialist Party occupy almost every city hall and state palace in the country.
Additionally, requests for U.S. reconstruction aid would increase after the U.S.-backed overthrow of Maduro, but Trump is not a proponent of nation building.
“And the day after” a coup d’état? Capriles said. “Is the United States willing to spend $100 billion to help stabilize Venezuela?
Officially, what’s called “Operation Southern Spear” is a counter-narcotics mission in which U.S. forces blow up suspected drug boats in the Caribbean. But Venezuelan political analyst Benigno Alarcón says that’s not much to show for such a massive military buildup.
“I don’t think they can call this operation a success if they just sink 10 boats and kill 80 drug traffickers,” he says.
InsightCrime’s McDermott calls the confrontation a “giant game of chicken.”
“Maduro knows that if he can hold on, President Trump will not be able to keep 11 percent or more of the U.S. fleet off the coast of Venezuela indefinitely,” he says. “So as long as Maduro doesn’t blink, time is on his side.”