Cautious shoppers plan to spend less this Black Friday

Black Friday shoppers flocked to stores, hoping to get more bags for their money as they grapple with inflation, tariffs and anxiety over the health of the economy.

Citadel Outlets in Commerce stores were overrun Friday morning with long waits for parking and winding lines outside the stores as consumers tried to score bargains. Camila Romero and her 13-year-old daughter spent hours waiting in line trying to get the best possible deals on the Ugg and Coach items on their wish lists.

“You come to the Citadelle because it has points of sale. And what’s more, it has discounts,” she says. “So even when you’re broke, you don’t feel it.”

Los Angeles shoppers plan to spend less this holiday season, data shows. As retailers unveil their biggest deals and prepare for what they hope will be robust demand, a Deloitte survey finds Angelenos plan to spend 14% less during the holidays compared to last year.

Nationally, shoppers are expected to spend 10% less than last year.

Consumers are reducing spending in response to economic uncertainty and rising prices, said Rebecca Lohrey, a partner at Deloitte with expertise in retail and e-commerce.

“There is at least a perception of higher prices and costs for goods,” Lohrey said. “It’s a concern for all consumers, and it’s one of the reasons why they’re clutching their wallets a little bit.”

The survey found that 62% of Angelenos expect the economy to weaken in the coming year, compared to 34% in 2024. About the same percentage of respondents say they are concerned about a potential recession in the next six months.

According to the data, across income groups, consumers are making compromises when it comes to cost reduction and putting more emphasis on finding the best deal. More than half of those surveyed in Los Angeles said they would switch brands if their first choice was too expensive.

“It’s usually the lower income brackets or the middle income brackets that are most likely to see a decline,” said Collin Colburn, vice president of commerce and retail media at the Interactive Advertising Bureau. “This year, actually, everyone is selling down.”

Camryn Smith and her daughter showed up early Friday morning to browse the deals at the Americana at Brand in Glendale. The cuts help blunt some of the effect of inflation, she said.

“The prices are higher and they just bring them back to what they normally would be,” Smith said. “It’s crazy.”

Consumers are tired of continued inflation and instability caused by the Trump administration. More and more shoppers are renewing their gifts or considering homemade gifts, according to the Deloitte survey.

“We’ve been in an environment where prices continue to rise for a multitude of reasons, inflation being one, tariffs being another,” Colburn said. “I think when this happens year after year, it really takes a toll on the consumer.”

That means more and more shoppers are looking for ways to save on purchases – and gifts – that they can’t put off.

The National Retail Federation predicts that a record number of Americans will participate in sales over the Thanksgiving weekend. Retail sales in November and December are expected to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year, the federation said.

Prudent consumers are more eager than ever to find a good deal, said Mark Mathews, NRF chief economist.

“People are changing the way they spend,” he said. “They’re more focused on getting their dollar’s worth and getting the most bang for their buck. »

Shoppers are also using new tools to help them find products and deals, including artificial intelligence. Data collected by the Interactive Advertising Bureau revealed that AI now ranks as the second most influential shopping source, ahead of retailer websites and apps and behind search engines.

Nearly 90% of shoppers nationwide said AI helps them find products they otherwise wouldn’t have found, according to IAB data.

Mattel, the El Segundo-based toy company, is offering up to 50 percent off at Target on Hot Wheels toys, Barbie dolls and Disney princesses, said company spokeswoman Kelly Powers.

“Mattel is working closely with retailers across the country on Black Friday deals,” Powers said.

In May, Mattel said it was considering raising prices to offset the effect of President Trump’s tariffs on China, where the company makes nearly 80% of the toys it sells in the United States. Citing uncertainty over the economy and tariffs, Mattel also suspended its full-year financial guidance and said it expects tariffs to affect its costs in the third quarter.

However, during the October earnings conference call, the company said the full effect of the tariffs would not be felt until the fourth quarter.

Discount retailers that rely heavily on foot traffic have given mixed signals about their business.

Walmart recently raised its sales forecast for the year after reporting a 6% year-over-year increase in revenue in the third quarter.

Target, on the other hand, fell short of analysts’ expectations and reported a 1.5% drop in third-quarter sales. On a call with analysts earlier this month, Target Chief Executive Brian Cornell said the company “did not reach its potential.”