Hurricane season is over. Here’s why the US never got hit.

Last April, scientists read the tea leaves — or, more accurately, piles of data — and predicted an above-average hurricane season through the summer and fall, with nine or ten named storms, four of which could reach force majeure. Yet the hurricane season ended Sunday without any of them making landfall in the United States for the first time in a decade. It was extraordinary in a good way, but the season was also extraordinary in many bad ways.

So how did the United States, which was hit by Hurricane Helene and four other tropical cyclones last year, escape disaster even as the Caribbean suffered immensely from Cyclone Melissa in September?

First, forecasters could make these predictions in April by considering a few factors. Hurricanes are atmospheric engines powered by warm water, and the Atlantic Ocean has been downright warm lately, which means more juice for bigger storms. “The main concern early in the season was just very, very warm ocean temperatures, either record-breaking in places or close to the record,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami.

Forecasters also took into account how the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America alternates between abnormally warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) cycles, or remains neutral, as was the case during this hurricane season. An El Niño generally reduces hurricane activity by creating vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which prevents storms from developing, while La Niña encourages them by reducing these winds.

But as hurricane season progressed, nature played an unpredictable role. High in the atmosphere, air currents blow in what is called a jet stream, which contains waves. The part of the wave that rises is called a crest and is associated with warmer weather. The part that slopes down to the south is called a trough, which is associated with stormy weather.

In August, September and October – when hurricane season really heats up as the oceans heat up throughout the summer – the ridge was weaker than usual around the southeastern United States. In fact, it looked more like a hollow. This created a counterclockwise movement of winds in the middle layer of the atmosphere, where hurricanes spin. This, in turn, acted as a sort of force field that pushed the hurricanes away from the continent and out to sea. “As they approached the East Coast, we had this anomalous influence during hurricane season, where they were more or less driven north by this anomalous trough,” McNoldy said.

Caribbean island nations, however, were not so lucky. Hurricane Melissa killed at least 45 people in Jamaica, before passing through Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. As it moved slowly across the Atlantic, it fed on warm waters, made up to 900 times more likely by climate change, increasing wind speeds by 10 miles per hour. (Which may not seem like much, but increases the potential damage exponentially.) Additionally, a hurricane is such a powerful force that it churns up the sea, bringing colder water to the surface, which would normally reduce the amount of fuel. But the region Melissa passed through was also anonymously warm at greater depths, so what the storm dragged to the surface further supercharged it.

Read next

After Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica’s climate resilience plan faces its biggest test yet

All that fuel helped the storm “rapidly intensify,” defined as an increase in maximum sustained wind speed of at least 35 mph in one day. In fact, Melissa experienced a phenomenon called extremely rapid intensification, doubling from 70 to 140 mph in just 18 hours. Peaking at 185 mph, it is tied for second most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record, and tied for first place for strongest when it makes landfall.

This is where the 2025 hurricane season becomes exceptional. While only five Atlantic hurricanes formed — half the number predicted — four of them, including Melissa, reached Category 5. (The average number of named hurricanes in a season is seven.) That means 80 percent of storms achieved this feat this year, compared to an average of 40 percent. So while this is the first year since 2015 that a hurricane has not made landfall in the United States, it is only the second year in history to produce three Category 5 or higher storms.

This is the worrying signal of climate change: the warmer the oceans become, the more fuel there is to power storms. Yes, in a few years this atmospheric force field might help the United States avoid making landfall, but the hurricanes that do make landfall will only get stronger and more destructive from here.