Redrafting MLB’s 2015 class: Alex Bregman goes No. 1 to Diamondbacks, Cedric Mullins skyrockets up the board

Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft begins June 13. Future All-Stars and award winners will hear their names called. Maybe even a future Hall of Famer or two. MLB’s draft is rarely about instant gratification because even the very best prospects will disappear into the minors for a few years, but you must draft well to be a successful organization. It is imperative.

The 2025 draft class will be evaluated instantly based on what we know right now. And, based on what we know right now, we can also go back a decade and re-evaluate the 2015 draft class. That draft has not yet produced an MVP or a Cy Young winner, but it has produced several All-Stars and World Series champions. Four first-round position players have appeared in 1,000 big-league games, though the less said about the first-round pitchers the better.

With the infallible benefit of hindsight, we’re going to go back and “redraft” the 2015 first round. To be clear, this is not a straight ranking of the best 2015 draftees by WAR or something like that. That would be boring. We’re redrafting players based on what they’ve done in their career to date as well as what we expect them to do in the future, so it’s a little more nuanced.

Here now is our 2015 first-round redraft, beginning with two former Houston stars who moved to new teams this past offseason.      

Actual pick: SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt
Bregman’s draft spot: No. 2 (Houston Astros)

It was a near certainty that three shortstops — Bregman, Swanson, Brendan Rodgers — would be selected with the top three picks going into the 2015 draft. Rodgers was the consensus top prospect, though the D-backs opted for Swanson, who was about to help Vanderbilt reach the College World Series Finals. Taking Swanson with the No. 1 pick was not a mistake. The mistake was trading him six months later for Shelby Miller. Yeesh. One of the worst trades in recent memory.

Bregman raked for three years at LSU and, as funny as it sounds now, there were questions about his power and his ability to remain at shortstop long term. The Astros had Carlos Correa at short, so that was a non-issue, and Bregman tailored his swing to pepper the Crawford Boxes with homers. He reached the big leagues in July 2016 and, in parts of nine seasons with Houston, he was a two-time All-Star who twice finished top five in the MVP voting, and also a two-time World Series champion. As of right now, Bregman is the best player in the 2015 draft class by almost 15 WAR.

2. Houston Astros: OF Kyle Tucker, Plant HS (FL)

Actual pick: SS Alex Bregman, LSU
Tucker’s draft spot: No. 5 (Houston Astros)

Landing the two best players in a draft class is a dream scenario and the Astros did it in 2015. Having two top five picks certainly helped. This pick, No. 2 overall, was the compensation pick for failing to sign lefty Brady Aiken, the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. The No. 5 pick, which the Astros used to take Tucker, was their original first-rounder. Tucker was expected to be a top-10 pick in 2015, likely top-five, though some teams had questions about his unorthodox swing. The Astros ironed a few things out and Tucker has since become a terrific all-around player who impacts the game at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. He went to three All-Star Games with Houston and finished fifth in the 2023 AL MVP voting. Needless to say, the Astros nailed it by taking Bregman here.

Actual pick: SS Brendan Rodgers, Lake Mary HS (FL)
Riley’s draft spot: No. 41 (Atlanta Braves)

Riley is a major player development success story. He was a two-way player in high school and more than a few teams preferred him on the mound. His power was evident, though there were concerns about his approach and swing-and-miss tendencies. Riley worked hard to close those holes in the minors and became a multi-time All-Star with three top-seven finishes in the MVP voting. He’s exceeded just about every expectation there was on draft day. Rodgers was the consensus No. 1 prospect in the 2015 draft class thanks to a legitimate five-tool skill set and polish. The bat never developed as much as expected though, and eventually he lost enough first-step quickness to necessitate a move to second base.

4. Texas Rangers: SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt

Actual pick: RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara
Swanson’s draft spot: No. 1 (Atlanta Braves)

The Astros landed the two best players in the 2015 draft class (Bregman and Tucker) and the Braves landed the third- and fourth-best players (Riley and Swanson) thanks to Arizona’s ill-fated decision to trade Swanson for Shelby Miller. Swanson has been more above average than star-caliber during his career, though players who go on to spend a decade as above-average shortstops are a huge win on draft day. Swanson played parts of seven seasons with the Braves and was the starting shortstop on their 2021 World Series championship team. 

Tate was the top-ranked pitcher in the 2015 draft class, though he had injuries and his stuff ticked down almost immediately in pro ball. To their credit, the Rangers moved on quickly and traded Tate to the New York Yankees for rental Carlos Beltrán a year later. Beltran helped Texas win the 2016 AL West title. The Yankees then sent Tate to the Baltimore Orioles for rental Zack Britton in 2018. He’s had an up-and-down career as a middle reliever, mostly with the O’s. That he leads all 2015 first-round pitchers in MLB games pitched says more about the rest of the pitchers selected in the first round than it does Tate.

5. Houston Astros: OF Ian Happ, Cincinnati

Actual pick: OF Kyle Tucker, Plant HS (FL)
Happ’s draft spot: No. 9 (Chicago Cubs)

There were many days Happ was the only non-freshman in Cincinnati’s lineup in 2015. He raked everywhere he played as an amateur, including with wood bats against top competition in the Cape Cod League, and he’s been an above-average big-league hitter for nine seasons now. For the Cubs and Happ, moving to left field full-time has been a game-changer. They tried him on the infield early in his career and he was competent there, but he’s since won three Gold Gloves in left (and deserved them). It goes without saying the Astros knocked it out of the park by selecting Tucker here.

Actual pick: LHP Tyler Jay, Illinois
Buehler’s draft spot: No. 24 (Los Angeles Dodgers)

The top five picks in our 2015 redraft are pretty clear cut. The No. 6 pick is where things open up, and we’ll go with Buehler. It was an open secret he needed Tommy John surgery at the time of the draft. The Dodgers took him late in the first round and Buehler came out of his rehab a different pitcher. He stuff jumped two notches across the board and he was an impact starter by 2018. Buehler was the best starter on L.A.’s 2020 World Series team and he got the final out of their 2024 World Series title. Injuries have cut into his career significantly, but the short-term impact was immense. Jay was a college reliever the Twins tried to turn into a starter, and it worked out terribly. His stuff backed up and he had injuries. To Jay’s credit, he stuck with it and reached the big leagues with the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers in 2024. He’s currently in Triple-A with the Brewers.

Actual pick: OF Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas
Mullins’ draft spot: No. 403 (Baltimore Orioles)

It was not until he gave up switch-hitting in 2021 that Mullins really broke out at the big-league level. He had the first 30-30 season in Orioles history in 2021 and has been a reliably above-average center fielder for five seasons now. As a 13th-round pick, Mullins is far and away the best “value” pick of the 2015 draft. Benintendi had a monster draft year with the Razorbacks (.376/.488/.717) and was the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2017, and a key part of Boston’s World Series championship team in 2018. Injuries and performance decline settled in soon after that, though Benintendi did make his way to the All-Star Game in 2022.

Actual pick: RHP Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt
Lowe’s draft spot: No. 87 (Tampa Bay Rays)

After hitting big on Chris Sale in 2010, the White Sox had a bit of an unconventional delivery phase, and that led them to Fulmer. There were serious concerns about his ability to start at the next level given his high-effort delivery, concerns that proved to be founded. Fulmer reached the big leagues in 2016 but appeared in only 44 games for the White Sox across four seasons before they cut him loose. He’s pitched for five teams in parts of eight MLB seasons and is still going in Triple-A. Lowe revamped his swing and unlocked a new level of power in 2018. Injuries have cut into his career, though landing a guy who’s averaged 34 homers per 162 games in the third round is a major draft win for the Rays.

9. Chicago Cubs: OF Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas

Actual pick: OF Ian Happ, Cincinnati
Benintendi’s draft spot: No. 7 (Boston Red Sox)

Funny enough, the Cubs were known to covet Benintendi going into the 2015 draft. They pivoted to Happ, who turned into the better player, after the Red Sox snagged Benintendi a few picks earlier. Benintendi’s had some highs, most notably helping the Red Sox to the 2018 World Series title and going to the All-Star Game in 2022, though he’s left his teams and his teams’ fans wanting more almost every step of the way as a big leaguer.

Actual pick: SS Cornelius Randolph, Griffin HS (GA)
Hayes’ draft spot: No. 32 (Pittsburgh Pirates)

The son of longtime big leaguer Charlie Hayes, Ke’Bryan had a strong draft year after dropping weight and showing greatly improved defense at third base. He’s arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game now, and one of the best defenders at any position period. The bat hasn’t developed as hoped after some early career promise though. Hayes is still only 28 and has time to figure it out, but until further notice, he’s an elite glove/bad bat player. Randolph was billed as one of the top pure hitters in the draft class and never looked the part in pro ball. He never played above Double-A and has been bouncing around independent leagues and the Mexican League since 2022.

The rest of the first round

11. Cincinnati Reds: UTIL/LHP Jake Cronenworth, Michigan. Cronenworth played every position except catcher and shortstop for the Wolverines, plus he closed and even made some starts as a junior. The Rays tried him some as a pitcher in Triple-A in 2019 before sending him to the San Diego Padres in the Tommy Pham/Hunter Renfroe trade later that year. Cronenworth’s been a solid-to-above-average player for San Diego for six years now. The Reds used this pick on Georgia HS catcher Tyler Stephenson, who is a mainstay in their lineup when he’s not on the injured list. (Cronenworth’s draft spot: No. 208 to Rays)

12. Miami Marlins: OF Trent Grisham, Richland HS (TX). At the time of the 2015 draft, Grisham was known as Trent Clark. He later took his mother’s maiden name and has become pretty much the exact opposite of what he was projected to be as a prospect. Grisham figured to be a plus bat/good glove corner outfielder. Now he’s a plus glove/good bat center fielder with two Gold Gloves. The Marlins used his pick on Canadian HS 1B Josh Naylor, a well-traveled middle-of-the-order bat. (Grisham’s draft spot: No. 15 to Milwaukee Brewers)

13. Tampa Bay Rays: OF Harrison Bader, Florida. Bader has spent too much time on the injured list, though he’s an outstanding defensive center fielder who has crushed left-handed pitchers and been so-so against righties. He’s been a strong role player on several contending teams. The Rays selected Florida HS OF Garrett Whitley with this pick. He was a tool shed, though he had injuries and the bat underwhelmed. Whitley’s been out of baseball since 2023. (Bader’s draft spot: No. 100 to St. Louis Cardinals)

14. Atlanta Braves: RHP Ryan Helsley, Northeastern State University. It was not until the Cardinals put Helsley in the bullpen full-time in 2018 that his career took off. He’s been one of the hardest throwers and top relievers in the game the last six years. California HS LHP Kolby Allard was the pick here for Atlanta. Allard has been a fringe big leaguer, though the Braves later traded him to the Rangers for reliever Chris Martin, who was part of the 2021 World Series team. It all worked out in the end. (Helsley’s draft spot: No. 161 to Cardinals)

15. Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Josh Naylor, St. Joan of Arc Catholic HS (ON). Naylor was traded twice, once for Andrew Cashner and then for Mike Clevinger, before settling in as a middle-of-the-order run producer the last few years. The Brewers took Grisham with this pick. He was later sent to the Padres in the Eric Lauer/Luis Urías deal. (Naylor’s draft spot: No. 12 to Marlins)

16. New York Yankees: 3B Paul DeJong, Illinois State. DeJong hit the ground running as a big leaguer and slugged 74 homers in his first three seasons while playing great defense at short. The fall off was quick after that and he’s spent the last few seasons as a journeyman utility guy. The Yankees took UCLA RHP James Kaprielian with the No. 16 pick, then traded him to the A’s two years later in the Sonny Gray deal. Injuries sabotaged Kaprielian’s career and he’s currently out of baseball. (DeJong’s draft spot: No. 131 to Cardinals)

17. Cleveland: C Taylor Ward, Fresno State. A standout defender in college, Ward wound up moving to the outfield in pro ball, and he’s been a solid if unspectacular everyday player the last four years. He was seen as a reach in the first round at the time, though it has since proven to be a solid pick. Cleveland took Brady Aiken with this pick one year after he did not sign with the Astros as the No. 1 selection. Aiken had injuries, never got out of Single-A, and has been out of baseball since 2019. (Ward’s draft spot: No. 26 to Los Angeles Angels)

18. San Francisco Giants: C Tyler Stephenson, Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA). There was chatter Stephenson could go No. 1 overall on a below slot deal, which obviously didn’t happen. When he’s been healthy, he’s been a really productive player for the Reds. The Giants took College of Southern Nevada RHP Phil Bickford with this pick two years after he did not sign with the Toronto Blue Jays as the No. 10 pick. Now an up-and-down reliever, Bickford was eventually traded to the Brewers for Will Smith (the lefty reliever, not the catcher). (Stephenson’s draft spot: No. 11 to Reds)

19. Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Ryan Mountcastle, Haggerty HS (FL). Yes, Mountcastle was a shortstop once upon a time. He moved to third base and later first base in pro ball, and has settled in as a solid bat who does most of his damage against lefties. Pittsburgh took Arizona SS Kevin Newman here. He was unable to build on a nice rookie season in 2019 and has spent most of his career as a role player/backup infielder. (Mountcastle’s draft spot: No. 26 to Baltimore Orioles)

20. Oakland Athletics: OF LaMonte Wade Jr., Maryland. Between Wade and Brandon Lowe, the 2015 Terrapins had some guys who could bang in their lineup. Always a stathead favorite for his plate discipline, Wade found a home for a few years with the Giants, most notably providing clutch hit after clutch hit during San Francisco’s surprise 107-win season in 2021. That earned him the nickname Late Night LaMonte. The A’s used this pick on Florida SS Richie Martin, who never hit and was later lost in the Rule 5 Draft. (Wade’s draft spot: No. 260 to Minnesota Twins)

21. Kansas City Royals: LHP A.J. Minter, Texas A&M. Minter had Tommy John surgery a few weeks before the draft but the Braves took him anyway, and didn’t get cute and try to make him a starter. He stayed in the bullpen and was a high-leverage workhorse for them 2018-23, and an important part of the 2021 World Series team. Hard-throwing Indiana HS RHP Ashe Russell was the pick here for the Royals. Russell’s mechanics completely fell apart in pro ball and Kansas City released him in 2021 after he threw just 42 ⅓ career innings in the low minors. (Minter’s draft spot: No. 75 to Braves)

22. Detroit Tigers: LHP Patrick Sandoval, Mission Viejo HS (CA). The Angels did well to get Sandoval in the trade that sent Martín Maldonado back to the Astros in 2018. He gave the Halos more than 500 slightly better-than-league-average innings before needing Tommy John surgery and getting non-tendered this past offseason. The Tigers took Texas HS RHP Beau Burrows here. Burrows did get to the big leagues in 2020, though his stuff never really popped in pro ball. He’s still active in the Mexican League. (Sandoval’s draft spot: No. 319 to Red Sox)

23. St. Louis Cardinals: SS Dylan Moore, Central Florida. One of the oldest players taken in the 2015 draft (he turned 23 in August 2015), Moore has carved out as a fine career as a lefty-mashing super utility guy. He was once traded for Jeff Francoeur. The Cardinals used this pick on Michigan HS OF Nick Plummer, who was one of those “he’s gonna hit” guys who never hit. He got into 14 games with the Mets in 2022 and has been out of baseball since. (Moore’s draft spot: No. 198 to Rangers)

24. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Pete Fairbanks, Missouri. Fairbanks had Tommy John surgery in high school and again in the minors in 2017. The Rays got him in a minor trade in 2019 and he’s become an above-average closer, albeit one who visits the injured list once or twice a season. The Dodgers hit a home run with this pick when they took Walker Buehler. (Fairbanks’ draft spot: No. 258 to Rangers)

25. Baltimore Orioles: LHP Jeffrey Springs, Appalachian State. It was not until the Rays moved Springs from the bullpen to the rotation in 2022 that his career took off. Tommy John surgery threw a wrench into things, but Springs is healthy now, and again an effective big-league starter. The Orioles took Florida State OF D.J. Stewart with the No. 25 pick. The bat has fallen well short of expectations, though Stewart has racked up over 1,000 big league plate appearances in parts of seven seasons. (Springs’ draft spot: No. 888 to Rangers)

26. Los Angeles Angels: SS Brendan Rodgers, Lake Mary HS (FL). Rodgers was the consensus No. 1 prospect leading into the 2015 draft, and although he’s played parts of six seasons in the majors, he’s mostly been a below-average regular. He is still only 28, so there’s time for Rodgers to put together a nice second phase to his career, though 2025 is his worst year yet. That’s not a good sign. The Angels selected Taylor Ward here, which has worked out nicely for them. (Rodgers’ draft spot: No. 3 to Rockies)

Four teams did not have a first-round pick in 2015 because they signed a qualified free agent during the 2014-15 offseason: 

Cuddyer helped the Mets reach the 2015 World Series. Cruz was a great Mariner and Martin a productive Blue Jay. The Padres traded Shields in the second year of his four-year contract. He went to the White Sox for a prospect named Fernando Tatis Jr. These signings all worked out nicely for these teams. Not having a first-round pick didn’t set them back any.