Computer model reveals conference championship college football picks, best bets for Dec. 5
Conference championship week begins Friday with four Group of Five contests, with at least one of those four conference champions assured of a spot in the College Football Playoff. Current College Football Playoff rankings would indicate that this team is most likely the winner of the USA Track and Field Championship between No. 24 North Texas and No. 20 Tulane, as the two highest-ranked teams playing Friday according to the CFP polls. North Texas is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest college football odds, despite being the lowest-ranked team in the CFP polls. Other Friday conference championship games pit Kennesaw State (-2.5) against Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship on CBS Sports Network at 7 p.m. ET, Troy against No. 25 James Madison (-23.5) in the Sun Belt and UNLV against Boise State (-5) in the Mountain West.
The SportLine projection model found values in these four conference championship games. Rather than backing a team for the AAC championship showdown between Tulane and North Texas, the model finds the best value playing over 66.5 total points. The model also backs Boise State over 58.5 points against UNLV, while projecting the value of a pair of underdogs in Jacksonville State (+2.5) and Troy (+23.5) for Friday’s conference championship best bets. Before you lock in your college football picks, be sure to check out the top college football betting picks from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money line and plus/minus picks since the start of the 2024 season. Anyone following these college football betting picks at sportsbooks and betting sites could have seen solid returns.
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Friday Conference Championship best bets for Friday, December 5 (odds subject to change):
- Jacksonville State (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State
- Troy (+23.5) against James Madison
- North Texas vs. Tulane: Over 66.5 points
- UNLV vs. Boise State: over 58.5 points
Combining the model’s three picks in a Friday conference championship game would result in a payout of +1,202 (risk $100 to win $1,202). Bet it now at Caesars Sportsbook:
Jacksonville State (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State (-110)
Jacksonville State, the defending Conference USA champion, won this regular season game, 35-26, on its home court, where the Conference USA championship game will be played. The Gamecocks are 5-0 at home this season, and they will have home-field advantage for the biggest game of the season. Kennesaw State went 9-3 overall and 7-1 in conference play, with its only loss coming against Jacksonville State, which also went 7-1 in Conference USA. Jacksonville State has the nation’s leading rusher in Cam Cook, who has 1,588 rushing yards on 45.7 yards per carry this season. Cook rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown, and dual-threat quarterback Caden Creel threw for 137 yards and rushed for 127 yards and two touchdowns in their regular season game. The model projects that Jacksonville State will cover 66% of simulations on Friday.
Troy (+23.5) vs. James Madison (+102)
West Division champion Troy meets James Madison, the top team on the East side, in the Sun Belt championship game. Troy has won two of the last three Sun Belt championships, but James Madison joining the conference brings a strong and growing program into the Sun Belt championship picture. These two teams did not meet during the regular season, where Troy went 8-4 (6-2) and James Madison went 11-1 (8-0). Troy has only lost one game by more than 23 points this season, and it played tough against Clemson in a 27-16 non-conference game, so it has also been tested against stronger programs. The model predicts that Troy will be covered in 61% of simulations.
North Texas vs. Tulane: Over 66.5 points (-115)
North Texas has the highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 46.4 points per game. The Mean Green are second in the nation in passing yards per game (324.5) behind freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker. He has 3,835 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and four interceptions this season as the Mean Green have scored more than 50 points in three straight games and five of their last six games. Meanwhile, Tulane can also score, posting at least 26 points in five straight games. The model predicts that the Over will hit in 55% of simulations.
UNLV vs. Boise State: over 58.5 points (-115)
These two teams far exceeded that total in their regular season meeting, which ended in a 56-31 victory for Boise State. They totaled 1,034 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the model expects the offenses to overshadow the defenses again in the Mountain West championship game. Maddux Madsen threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns for Boise State, and he will return after missing last month with a leg injury. Dylan Riley totaled 201 yards on 13.4 yards per carry for the Broncos in this contest. Anthony Colandrea, who threw for over 3,000 yards this season, passed for 215 yards, rushed for 87 yards and had three total touchdowns for UNLV against Boise State. The model predicts that the Over will hit in 63% of simulations.
Want more college football picks?
You’ve seen the model’s best college football bets for Friday. Now, confront the spread, total and money line picks for every conference championship game here, all from the model that has simulated every game 10,000 times.
