Florida may be Trump’s last chance to gain GOP seats through redistricting

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida could be the last state the White House can count on to pick up additional seats in the rare mid-decade round of redistricting it pushed ahead of the midterm elections.

The Republican-controlled state officially entered the fray last week by holding a legislative hearing, kicking off a lengthy process that will extend into the new year. Florida is following the lead of GOP-led states like Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, which passed new congressional maps at the request of President Donald Trump to protect the GOP’s narrow majority in the House.

But as Democratic states like California follow suit with new district lines and Republican Party efforts in states like Indiana have been more difficult than expected, the advantage Trump and his allies thought they could gain from the push may be far less than they initially hoped.

This is where Florida comes in. Although all elements of state government are dominated by Republicans, infighting between some lawmakers and Gov. Ron DeSantis has become complicated and appears poised to impact the state’s redistricting efforts. Additionally, Florida’s state constitution contains anti-gerrymandering provisions — although watered down in recent years — that largely prohibit lawmakers from redrawing maps with the intent of helping or harming certain political parties.

These thorny legal questions are one reason why the White House has put less pressure on Florida to draw a new map than on other states, and why the state is one of the last to begin its process. DeSantis has long urged lawmakers to redraw Florida’s congressional map, but said the state should wait for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on a Louisiana case that could erode a key provision of the Voting Rights Act that was enacted to protect minority voters.

DeSantis said if the court further weakened the Voting Rights Act, it would “require further congressional redistricting.”

DeSantis and Florida Senate leaders have said they would like to hold a special legislative session to redraw districts in April, which could be just weeks before the April 20 qualification deadline for federal candidates. It would also put them at odds with the state’s leaders in the House, who have sparred with DeSantis over a range of issues. They said any new map would have to be considered during the regular legislative session that begins in January.

“It would be irresponsible to delay the creation and adoption of a new map, especially after the session,” said state Rep. Mike Redondo, a Republican who chairs the House redistricting committee. “It would also be irresponsible to all those who are called to public service, and most importantly, it would be irresponsible to the citizens of Florida.”

Redondo’s committee met for the first time Thursday, holding a brief meeting that left no time for public comment for the dozens of protesters who traveled to Tallahassee to voice concerns about the brutal redistricting process.

The meeting focused on how the process would work and included no discussion of specific map proposals, which have not yet been tabled.

Republican leaders have tried to downplay the idea that redistricting efforts have anything to do with overt politics, even though the White House has pushed the effort nationally and other state lawmakers have openly said the goal is to maximize partisan advantage.

“Let me be very clear: Our work as a committee and as a legislative body is not driven by the work of other states or by partisan gamesmanship,” Redondo said.

During Thursday’s meeting, activists who filled the committee room laughed at the assertion that politics was not driving the process. None had time to address the committee during the meeting.

“It’s a public meeting and people are here,” Jessica Lowe-Minor, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida, said of those who traveled to Tallahassee not being allowed to speak. “It seems like if there was time available, it would have been reasonable for the committee to hear testimony, especially since people have come a long way to be here.”

According to three senior Republicans who spoke with NBC News, it’s expected that a new Florida map could net the GOP three to five additional House seats, but approaching a five-seat pickup could trigger legal problems. Republicans currently represent 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts.

“This number [five] “I think it could get us in trouble, and I think we need to be very careful,” said a veteran Republican who has followed the redistricting process closely and was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There are a lot of national implications for all of this, and Florida is unique in what it can and cannot do.”

The seats most likely to be affected are an Orlando-area seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto and two South Florida seats held by Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Florida could give Republicans a boost nationally ahead of the midterm elections, especially since the White House-inspired redistricting project hasn’t gone as well as local officials once thought.

The U.S. Supreme Court said Friday that a new Texas map, crafted to give the Republican Party a five-seat increase, could be used in the midterms, overturning a lower court ruling. In Indiana, the House of Representatives adopted a new congressional map on Friday that could bring two seats to the Republicans. But its fate is unclear in the Senate, where some Republicans have resisted the push.

In Ohio, Republicans agreed to a map that could give them a slight boost, but didn’t go as far as Democrats feared. In Utah, a court-ordered map will likely lead to Democrats being awarded a new seat. And Republicans in states like Kansas, Nebraska and New Hampshire have refused to join the fray.

In addition to California’s new map, Virginia Democrats have taken steps to reorganize congressional boundaries to strengthen their party. And other Democratic-led states, like Illinois and Maryland, are still considering whether to pursue redistricting.

“With a slim majority heading into the midterms, they need more seats to build a buffer to keep the House. If they can ultimately win five or six seats, then that will be the Republican success story in the midterms,” ​​a Republican Party strategist deeply involved in House races told NBC News last month, as it became clear the process might not be a clear victory for Republicans.

“If the goal was to win a seat across the country, it wouldn’t have been worth it,” the person added.