The Battle for the House Continues, but the GOP Is (Now) Handicapped – RedState
Well, the special election to the Tennessee House has passed, so it’s time to get back to the political battle for the United States House of Representatives in 2026.
Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, whose hardline positions prompted her own party to dub her “AOC of Tennessee,” lost by 9 points, or 54 to 45 percent, to Republican Matt Van Epps. This was much better for the GOP than the 2-point margin for Van Epps suggested by Emerson’s polls a few days earlier. This is a district that President Donald Trump won by 22 points last year. Surprisingly, turnout in this race was much better than expected, although left-leaning areas still saw higher participation. Trump’s campaign team appears to have presented a good defense, blaming Behn for his foolishness and “reaching out to Gen Z on the platforms, podcasts and streaming media where they hang out.”
It’s possible that a more moderate Democrat would have done better. But I tend to doubt it, given the return of the Yellow Dog Democratic voter.
After the midterm elections, the conventional wisdom on control of the House shifted from a “coin toss” to a more traditional “outside party” (e.g., Democrats) election. To hold the House, the GOP must avoid losing three (net) seats or more. In recent times, the majority party has won only two seats in midterm elections.
The GOP strategy includes: 1) pushing GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) eliminate the main challengers from the table; 5) raise more money for people; 6) accelerate recruitment; and 7) emphasize certain salient issues.
The Republican Party’s redistricting strategy has had some challenges, but it will likely remain positive:
- CA passed its redistricting, weakening the GOP, thanks to TDS from state Democrats, although the measure is being challenged in court;
- After TDS justices tried to stop TX GOP redistricting, the Supreme Court blocked it — this following a scathing dissent in that earlier decision calling it “outrageous” and bought and paid for by “the James Bond villain” named George Soros;
- After Democrats won New Jersey and Virginia, both new governors pushed redistricting, although neither is guaranteed;
- FL is “making strides” with its pro-GOP redistricting;
- After IN Republicans chickened out, pressure from Team Trump pushed a redistricting bill through the State House, although its final passage is far from guaranteed;
- In Kansas and the NE, the Republicans also seem to have deflated;
- In the United States, the judge’s decision to implement a Democratic plan to create a new Democratic district is being appealed by the Republican Party;
- In Maryland, many Democrats are pushing to oust the Republican Party’s only representative, although a powerful Democrat opposes it and the judiciary has already said “no”;
- In Missouri, Democrats hope in vain to reverse the recent redistricting that cost them a seat;
- In North Carolina, the GOP carried out partial redistricting, which will likely cost a Democrat his seat;
However, both parties are still waiting, on needles and needles, to see whether the Supreme Court will give a boost to the fortunes of the GOP House by banning racial gerrymandering in the South, which could cost Democrats seats in AL, GA, LA, MS, SC and even Texas.
The Republican Party’s plan to minimize retirements was largely a failure, with 21 of the 36 retirements being Republican. However, most “retired” Republicans are running for higher office.
The Republican Party continues to have an advantage in the fundraising battle, particularly at the RNC versus DNC level, although Democrats are spending more at the NRCC versus DCCC level. The GOP also just launched a new fundraising platform.
The GOP still has an advantage on many important issues. A Maris survey shows:
The Trump administration’s focus on affordability is reinforced by the latest poll. When asked what their top priority should be, 57 percent of Americans surveyed said lowering prices, followed by 16 percent who said controlling immigration, 9 percent who said reducing crime, 7 percent who said ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, 6 percent who said maintaining peace between Israel and Gaza and 4 percent who said eliminating drug trafficking from Latin America.
Clearly, the Republican Party has long had a polling advantage on immigration control, crime reduction and drug control, all issues that are in the news today.
This means that Republicans are right to focus on inflation, which may well be “the whole game.”
When it comes to individual House races, the GOP received a huge boost when Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) announced his retirement. The GOP nominee, former Gov. Paul LePage, is emerging as the front-runner in the Republican-leaning district, although I continue to worry about LePage’s advanced age and his electoral defeat. But President Trump pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), giving the Democrat an advantage in his district over “a prized R recruit, Tano Tijerina, who is switching parties.”
It should never be said that Donald Trump always acts in a partisan manner. (Of course it will be said, but it won’t be the truth.)
The GOP still has work to do to implement a successful “strategy” to hold the House. They must be effective in solving the affordability problem. They should “capture” and “personalize” a good campaign against a Democratic “demon.” (Granted, Mamdani will work in the New York/NJ area.) And they need to use the upcoming $2,000 rebate and midterm convention to maximize the potential benefits for their candidates.
But “we’ll (just) have to see what happens.”
A few final points:
- Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 42.4 percent approval to 54.9 percent disapproval, which is in the danger zone. He has been in this area since November 8th. However, he is ahead of President Bush at this point in his term.
- It is unclear how President Trump’s status as a two-term, non-consecutive president will affect normal voting patterns in House politics. It is entirely possible that the Republican Party is using the term Biden to distract from the negative aspects of the economy.
- The House is evenly divided and experiences a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers won by the parties are often determined by the respective parties’ overexposure or underexposure in the House. And the GOP is NOT overexposed.
