Ocean warmed by climate change fed intense rainfall and deadly floods in Asia, study finds
BENGALURU, India (AP) — Ocean temperatures warmed by human-caused climate change have fueled intense rains that have triggered deadly floods and landslides across Asia in recent weeks, according to an analysis released Wednesday.
The rapid study by World Weather Attribution focused on heavy rainfall caused by cyclones Senyar and Ditwah in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Sri Lanka starting late last month. The analysis found that warmer sea surface temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean added energy to cyclones.
Floods and landslides caused by the storms killed more than 1,600 people and hundreds more are still missing. The cyclones are the latest in a series of deadly weather disasters that have hit Southeast Asia this year, causing loss of life and property damage.
“It rains a lot here, but never like this. Usually the rain stops around September, but this year it has been very bad. All parts of Sri Lanka have been affected, and our region has been the worst affected,” said Shanmugavadivu Arunachalam, a 59-year-old teacher from the mountain town of Hatton in Sri Lanka’s central province.
Warmer sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean were 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.3 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the average over the past three decades, according to WWA researchers.
Without global warming, sea surface temperatures would have been about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than they were, according to the analysis. Warmer ocean temperatures provided heat and moisture for the storms.
Measuring global temperatures, the global temperature is currently 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the global average in pre-industrial times in the 19th century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“When the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture. As a result, it rains more in a warmer atmosphere than in a world without climate change,” said Mariam Zachariah, of the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and one of the report’s authors.
Use proven methods to quickly measure climate impacts
WWA is a group of researchers who use peer-reviewed methods to conduct rapid studies examining how extreme weather events are linked to climate change.
“Whenever we decide to do a study, we know what the procedure is that we have to follow,” said Zachariah, who added that they review the results internally and send part of their analysis for peer review, even after an initial version is made public.
The speed with which WWA publishes its analysis helps inform the general public about the impacts of climate change, according to Zachariah.
“We want people around the world to know why something happened in their neighborhood,” Zachariah said. “But also be aware of the reasons behind some of the events happening around the world.”
WWA often estimates how much climate change has made a disaster worse using specific probabilities. In this case, however, the researchers said they could not estimate the precise contribution of climate change to the storms and resulting heavy rains due to the limitations of climate models for the affected islands.
Climate change increases unusually heavy rainfall in Asia
Global warming is a “powerful amplifier” of the deadly floods, typhoons and landslides that have ravaged Asia this year, said Jemilah Mahmood of the Sunway Center for Planetary Health, a Malaysia-based think tank that was not involved in the WWA analysis.
“The region and the world have followed this path because, for decades, economic development has been prioritized over climate stability,” Mahmood said. “This has created accumulated planetary debt, which has resulted in the crisis we face.”
The analysis found that in affected countries, rapid urbanization, high population density and infrastructure located in low-lying floodplains have increased exposure to flooding.
“The human toll from Cyclones Ditwah and Senyar is staggering,” said Maja Vahlberg, technical advisor at the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre. “Unfortunately, it is the most vulnerable people who experience the worst impacts and have the longest path to recovery. »
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Follow Sibi Arasu on @sibi123.
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Delgado reported from Bangkok, Thailand.
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