Trump’s MAGA base is still behind him — but cracks are showing ahead of 2026
President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains steady among adults as he nears the end of his first year in the White House, and he has lost ground among his “Make America Great Again” base, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk poll conducted by SurveyMonkey.
Trump’s approval declined slightly in 2025 due to concerns about the economy, while Americans remain worried about inflation and costs after Trump’s campaign promised to ease those concerns. Respondents’ concerns were evident in everyday spending decisions like grocery shopping, vacation spending and more, according to the survey.
Other high-profile decisions by Trump, including his handling of the controversy over the so-called Jeffrey Epstein files, have had a negative impact with Americans. Trump initially opposed a congressional move to force the release of the records before bowing to bipartisan pressure last month.
Overall, the poll highlights how intense support for Trump for a second presidential term has weakened – and how much the intensity of opposition to him has increased.
American adults largely disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 58% in the new poll. This represents a slight drop in approval rating of 3 points (from 45%) in four polls since April, the first time the survey was conducted. The new poll surveyed 20,252 adults online, including both registered and unregistered voters, from Nov. 20 to Dec. 8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
But behind this modest decline in approval lie more subtle changes in the intensity of feelings toward the president — both positive and negative.
The share of people who strongly approve of Trump (21%) has declined over the year (26% in April). Slightly more people now say they strongly disapprove of Trump (44%) compared to April (42%).
MAGA is not as “strong” as Trump
Two groups are showing the biggest decline in support for the president since April: those who identify as Republicans and, in particular, those who identify with Trump’s MAGA movement.
Among Republicans who consider themselves more supporters of the Republican Party than of the MAGA movement, the share of those who “strongly approve” of Trump now stands at 35%, up from 38% in April.
Trump’s strong approval is highest among those who consider themselves MAGA Republicans: 70%. But this represents a drop of 8 points (compared to 78%) since April.
And while 7 in 10 MAGA supporters still say they “strongly approve” of the president’s job performance, fewer Republicans say they are part of the MAGA movement compared to earlier this year.
In April, a majority of Republicans said they identified with the MAGA movement. In this survey, Republicans are also split on whether they identify more as traditional supporters of the Republican Party or as members of the MAGA movement.
Although small, these changes are notable because Trump has enjoyed enormous influence over his party, in large part due to his ability to amass a core base of support. But in recent months, fractures have appeared.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a pillar of Trump’s MAGA movement, publicly broke with the president and his administration on a number of issues, including what the Georgia Republican saw as a misplaced focus on foreign affairs rather than domestic policy. Greene said she now identifies as “America First,” rather than MAGA, and is resigning from Congress early next year.
Meanwhile, November’s election saw Democrats dominate on a message of affordability, underscoring the challenges Republicans could face ahead of next year’s midterm elections, as the president’s allies urge him to do more to address economic concerns.
Concerns about the economy and finances
The economy remains the most important issue for Americans right now, and persistent inflation remains a sore spot even among the president’s supporters, the survey found.
Those who identify as Republicans, including MAGA Republicans, are changing their perspective slightly when it comes to the economy.
Compared to the last NBC News Decision Desk poll in August, both groups were a few percentage points more likely to say their personal finances are worse today than they were a year ago. These groups were also 6 points more likely to say the country is on the wrong track.
Overall, 64% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, up from 60% at the start of the year.
This result applies to most groups, but groups changing their minds in a negative direction could also be among the most important in next year’s midterm elections: people who voted for Trump in 2024, people with a high school diploma or less, people 65 and older (especially older women), and black and Hispanic Americans.
Different economic priorities depending on income
While the majority of Americans express concern about the overall state of the economy, those at the top and bottom of the income distribution do not experience the same levels of concern – or do not express their concern in the same ways.
Overall, 41% said their personal financial situation is about the same as it was a year ago. 35% said the situation was worse today and 24% said it was better.
However, 45% of those earning less than $50,000 said their finances are worse today, compared to just a quarter of those earning more than $100,000.
Similarly, while 31% of people with the highest incomes say they are in a better financial situation than a year ago, only 16% of people with the lowest incomes say they are in a better situation today.
Americans with incomes below $50,000 cited the cost of housing and food as the biggest economic problems they and their families face. The cost of health insurance and retirement planning, meanwhile, were the biggest economic issues cited by those earning more than $100,000.
Due to recent economic conditions, a majority of Americans said they have had to change the groceries they purchase in order to stay within their budget, and a majority also said they have personally cut back on spending on extras and entertainment to be able to purchase essentials.
Those with incomes below $50,000 were more likely – by double digits – to say they cut back on spending on groceries, extras and entertainment, and even vacation spending, compared to those with incomes above $100,000.
And while 69% of the highest earners say they are personally affected by what happens in the stock market, 58% of the lowest earners say the stock market doesn’t affect them much, if at all.
More than half of Americans (53%) said they trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party (47%) when it comes to handling rising prices for everyday goods. The majority view on this issue is the same among traditionally Democratic groups whose participation will be crucial to the party’s prospects in the 2026 elections: African Americans (77%), women (61%), Latinos (60%), young people (59%), and independents (55%).
The NBC News Decision Desk poll conducted by SurveyMonkey surveyed 20,252 adults online from November 20 to December 8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
