Don’t call it a ‘super flu’ – but the NHS is right to be worried this winter | Devi Sridhar

Yesou might feel stressed seeing headlines about the “super flu” and comparing today’s winter health challenges with 2020 and Covid. Amid all the noise, it’s hard to know how bad this flu really is – and how much political manipulation there is. I should start by saying that “super flu” is not a scientific term nor used by the academics or clinicians I work with. It’s a colloquialism that has been used by various NHS England bosses and echoed by Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Keir Starmer.

This year, several factors have come together to make the flu season more difficult for hospitals to manage. First, the flu arrived earlier than in previous years. This is not unique to the UK: it is the same situation in the US, Canada, Japan and Germany – mostly in the northern hemisphere as winter approaches. This is against the backdrop of the circulation of multiple viruses such as Covid and rhinoviruses, meaning patients could be fighting one or more viruses at the same time and are more likely to get sicker from the flu.

The current level of hospitalizations is typically in January, but is occurring a month earlier. According to recent data from NHS England, flu-related hospitalizations rose sharply in December 2025, with an average of around 2,660 flu patients hospitalized per day, the highest level recorded for this time of year, and a 55% increase in admissions in just one week. Emergency department attendances for flu and respiratory illnesses have also reached record levels, increasing pressure on emergency departments.

When we talk about seasonal flu, the predominant circulating strains are H1N1 and H3N2 (both influenza A) and influenza B. All three are included in this year’s flu vaccine. H3N2 is a more serious “flu” than other strains, especially in older people or young children. This winter, a new variant of H3N2 appeared, called K. This strain appeared (through mutation) too late to be included in this year’s seasonal vaccine update. This means the vaccine provides less than ideal protection. This is not unusual for seasonal flu vaccines, given how quickly the flu virus mutates.

Does this mean this year’s flu vaccine doesn’t work? No not at all. Even if it is not perfect, it nevertheless offers partial protection against H3N2 and against the two other strains in circulation. Real-world vaccine effectiveness data provided by the UK Health Security Agency shows that even with the K H3N2 subclade dominant, the 2025-2026 seasonal vaccine still provides typical protection: approximately 72-75% effective against emergency department attendance and hospital admission in children and adolescents, and 32-39% effective in adults. This means that vaccinated people are significantly less likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated people, even if infection is not completely prevented.

But there is another problem this winter in the UK: both the uptake and provision of the flu vaccine. Among the risk groups covered by the NHS, last year’s data indicates that only around 40% of people under 65 in clinical risk groups and around 42.6% of children aged two to three were vaccinated, while the vaccination rate among people aged 65 or over was around 74.9%. We, the public health community, have not done a good enough job of explaining to people the severity of influenza illness and the benefits of vaccination, nor of making vaccination easier.

But what about if you’re not in a group covered by the NHS and you just don’t want to get seriously ill with the flu this year? Unfortunately, the UK is currently experiencing a shortage of vaccines on the private market, meaning many pharmacies have little or no stock. It’s a weird situation. The cost of vaccination (prevention) falls on people who have to take time off work, potentially visit multiple pharmacies to find a vaccine and pay between £18 and £20. That’s time and money that many people would struggle to find, given other pressing demands.

But if a person is not vaccinated and is admitted to hospital, the cost of admissions to the NHS and taxpayers runs into tens of thousands of pounds, adding to the huge patient workload. These are incentives that are the opposite of what we should be offering to individuals.

When it comes to hospitals, the UK government is right that they are in a critical condition, but that is because there is little surge capacity. As one clinician told me: “Primary care and secondary care operate at or near capacity all the time, so any increase in disease pushes the system beyond capacity and into a “crisis.” Hospital bosses are worried because if December already looks this bad (as a typical January would), what will January and February look like? The million dollar question is: have we already reached peak flu (and just had a season early), or is the overall baseline going to be higher for months to come, which would be very concerning? I don’t think anyone knows the answer.

I’m afraid we need to be careful not to cry wolf and label this the “super flu.” This is not a new pathogen (like SARS-CoV-2) that has made many people seriously ill, and for which we had no vaccine, no diagnosis and no treatment, and no prior immunity in the global population. Exaggerating also carries the risk that if we get a dramatic change in a virus – like H5N1 avian flu – causing human-to-human transmission with a high mortality rate, people will be desensitized to public health information. Covid was a once-in-a-century pandemic. I don’t think at all that what’s happening now can be compared to that.

The NHS is in trouble and in crisis, but not because of a “super flu”. It is in trouble because the flu season has arrived early, vaccines offer partial protection against a mutated circulating strain, the seasonal flu vaccine is poorly adopted and inaccessible, and the health service is in critical condition every winter. Finally, is it too late to get vaccinated? Not at all – I strongly encourage you to find a local pharmacy with stock and protect yourself before the holiday season.

• Professor Devi Sridhar is Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh

• Fit Forever: well-being for midlife and beyond
  On Wednesday, January 28, 2026, join Annie Kelly, Devi Sridhar, Joel Snape and Mariella Frostrup to discuss how to live longer, healthier lives, with expert advice and practical tips. Book your tickets here or on Guardian.live