Vicious cycle of alarmism could lead Israel into unwanted war with Iran

Although neither side wants war, Jerusalem and Tehran suspect each other of being ready to suddenly launch a surprise attack.

Neither Israel nor Iran wants war right now, neither wants war in the near future.

Based on this common interest, one might think that war between the parties is unlikely. This assumption would be false.

Although neither side wants war, both suspect the other of being ready to launch a surprise attack.

Furthermore, both sides are unwilling to compromise on each other’s demands, which would significantly reduce the possibility of war.

The situation has deteriorated to the point that if one side thinks it is being fooled by the other, it may strike preemptively to avoid a war that simply will not happen. Essentially, they’re tackling a ghost – a possibility that never existed in the first place.

How did the situation become so unstable?

Iran and Israel engaged in a shadow war that lasted decades until April 2024.

In April 2024, Iran launched 110 ballistic missiles, 170 drones and more than 30 cruise missiles at Israel, all in one night.

This definitely changed the relationship between the two parties.

The Islamic Republic attacked again in October 2024 with more than 180 ballistic missiles.

For its part, Israel counterattacked twice.

And then, at a time of vital negotiations between the United States and Iran, the IDF launched its surprise attack on Iran.

“Vicious circle of alarmism”

From that point on, the Islamic Republic became paranoid about another surprise attack. And that’s understandable, given how deadly the Israeli attack was to its national power and top commanders.

In response, Iran launched more than 550 missiles and more than 1,000 drones at Israel. But it won’t stop there. Iran aims to build enough ballistic missiles to regain the 50% lost six months ago. Then, from there, it seeks to surpass its pre-war total of 2,500 missiles, so that it can overwhelm Israel’s missile shield.

No one really expects Iran to attack now, when it doesn’t have enough missiles.

But could this make it more desirable for Israel to attack sooner?

And if Israel could attack sooner, then should Tehran attack sooner, even if it is not ready?

This brings both sides back into the vicious cycle of alarmism, which could lead to an unwanted war.

It was precisely this current of paranoia that almost led the world to a nuclear holocaust during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. And, in 2014, it led to a 50-day war between Hamas and the Israeli military, for which neither side wanted or was ready.

Of course, Hamas wanted, and Iran wants, to eventually destroy Israel.

But that doesn’t mean it’s wise to launch into war when Israel is neither ready nor recovered. As a people, we are not mentally prepared for another war, nor do we want to see dozens of missiles crash into our Arrow interceptors again.

Israeli officials have said they are ready to strike Iran to try to dissuade it from rebuilding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

And if Iran continues to increase its ballistic missile volume, Israel may have to attack again, whether in three months, six months or a few years.

In the meantime, however, Israeli officials now fear that they have intimidated Iran too aggressively and hope that a recalibration can avoid an early war.