FIU vs. UTSA prediction, odds, spread: 2025 First Responder Bowl picks from proven model

The Florida International Panthers will face the UTSA Roadrunners in the 2025 First Responder Bowl on Friday night. FIU is coming off a 56-16 victory over Sam Houston State on Nov. 29, while UTSA dropped a 27-24 decision to Army on the same day. FIU (7-5), which finished tied for fourth in Conference USA at 5-3, has won four straight. UTSA (6-6), tied for sixth in the Conference USA, won two of three games. Both teams are expected to lose several key players to injuries and the transfer portal, with FIU particularly decimated in the secondary. FIU’s quarterback situation is also a bit unclear after Keyone Jenkins and Joe Pesansky both suffered season-ending injuries. Both could play in some capacity on Friday.

Kickoff at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas will be at 8 p.m. ET. The Roadrunners are 7-point favorites in the latest FIU vs. UTSA odds, while the over/under in total points scored is 61.5, up four from the opening line. Before making any UTSA vs. FIU picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it ranks 31-19 among its highest-rated college football money-line picks since the start of the 2024 season.

Now the model has set its sights on FIU versus UTSA. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for UTSA vs. FIU:

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How to choose between FIU and UTSA

The SportsLine model is exceeding (61.5) of the total. The Over has hit in six of FIU’s last 10 games and seven of UTSA’s last 10 games.

The model has FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins passing for over 225 yards and two touchdowns, while UTSA quarterback Owen McCown is projected to throw for 290 yards and three touchdowns. The teams are expected to combine for 65 points as the Over succeeds in over 50% of simulations.

The model also indicates that one side of the gap occurs in well over 60% of simulations. You can see the model choice on SportsLine.

So who wins FIU over UTSA, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the FIU vs. UTSA spread to jump to, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and find out.