Ex-Pentagon official on the prospects of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia : NPR

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Now let’s dive a little deeper into these Ukraine peace negotiations with Evelyn Farkas. She served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia under President Obama. And now she’s executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. Hello and welcome to the program.

EVELYN FARKAS: Hello, Leila. Thank you for inviting me.

FADEL: So we just heard yesterday that the Ukrainian president said the same thing before and after the meeting with President Trump, that they were 90% in agreement. So, was real progress towards peace made yesterday?

FARKAS: That’s true. I mean, look, it looks like we’re getting closer. The United States and Ukraine are moving closer to agreement on the maximum we could reach in terms of compromise with Russia. But the problem is, as Danielle said in her report, we don’t know if Russia is ready to make any compromise. So it’s very positive that President Trump is getting involved.

It’s fantastic what Ukraine, of course, is doing – I don’t know if it’s fantastic that they’re making concessions, but it’s constructive. They’re looking at all kinds of options, Leila, and that’s always a good thing. But you know, again, we have to keep in mind the fact that Ukraine has already compromised with us – and, frankly, that means with Russia – and Russia has shown no signs of compromise so far.

FADEL: Well, let me ask you about that, because before the meeting, President Trump spoke with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin. How significant was it that he made that call, and also that he said at the press conference yesterday that Russia wanted to see Ukraine succeed, even after Russia continued its attacks over the weekend?

FARKAS: Yes, I’ll be honest, I was a little disturbed because President Trump has this habit of talking to President Putin before he talks with President Zelensky, before he has major conversations with President Zelensky. We know that when he spoke with President Putin earlier this year, he was on the verge of a decision by him, or President Trump, to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine. And he came out of the meeting with President Putin basically saying what he often says after speaking with Russia and sort of repeated this time, which is that Russia wants peace, and he was also very negative and ultimately did not decide to green light the supply of these long-range missiles to Ukraine.

So I think the brake that President Putin is putting on President Trump on these calls is not necessarily constructive, because it allows President Putin to have the last word before President Trump comes into the meeting, which is not to say that this time I don’t notice a difference, because I think President Trump’s advisors, the Secretary of State and others, have clearly done a lot of work. And they also did a lot of preparation with our president. But I don’t think that’s the right signal to send. We’ll see what happens, if he comes back and calls her again. It’s a good thing that he also spoke with the Europeans after the meeting. But again, I would – you know, I think it’s best for President Trump to talk to his advisors and then talk to the Ukrainians and then loop around with the Russians.

FADEL: Does Russia want peace?

FARKAS: No, I don’t think Russia wants peace right now. And when I speak of Russia, I speak of the Kremlin, of President Putin, of the elites who surround him. It appears that either President Putin is bluffing or has once again been convinced by his intelligence experts and military that Russia currently has the upper hand. Russia is making only very modest tactical advances on the ground. And they are trying to present this as some kind of inexorable and inevitable victory for Russia. Russia is very far from victory, as you know from all the reporting by NPR. They are under incredible economic stress.

The United States has the opportunity to force Russia to compromise by exerting more pressure on it. But for now, the Russian government does not want peace. And I will also add that even if we get a ceasefire or some sort of peace agreement, I would still be worried about our European allies because President Putin has a war economy. He has an internal policy of war. It will therefore be difficult for him to actually turn, even if he can do so in his own mind, towards a peacetime political situation and environment within the Russian Federation.

FADEL: You talked about more pressure on Russia. At this point, what kind of diplomatic effort do you think could actually end the war if that is even possible?

FARKAS: Well, this is where I don’t really see diplomacy as the key with Russia, because it seems like President Putin is just saying, “I want peace, I want peace,” but is doing nothing, verbally or otherwise, to demonstrate that he wants peace. As Danielle mentioned, it bombs Ukrainian civilians every night. We must exert economic pressure on the Russian government, but also maintain military pressure. We need to provide weapons to Ukraine so that they can turn off – you know, so that they can hit Russia’s rear and turn off Russian refineries, et cetera.

FADEL: Evelyn Farkas is a former Pentagon official who directs the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. Thank you very much for your time.

FARKAS: Thank you, Leila.

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