Navy vs. Cincinnati prediction, odds, spread: 2026 Liberty Bowl picks from proven model

The Navy Midshipmen will face the Cincinnati Bearcats in the 2026 Liberty Bowl on Friday afternoon. Navy is coming off a 17-16 win over Army on Dec. 13, while Cincinnati dropped a 45-23 decision at TCU on Nov. 29. The Midshipmen (10-2), who finished in a three-way tie for the Conference USA regular-season championship, have won three in a row. The Bearcats (7-5), who finished tied for seventh in the Big 12 Conference, have lost four straight. Cincinnati starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby and most of the Bearcats’ secondary are among the players who have entered the transfer portal and will not play.

Kickoff from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, will be at 4:30 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 3-3, with Cincinnati winning 20-10 when they last met in 2022. The Midshipmen are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Navy vs. Cincinnati odds, while the over/under in total points scored is 54.5 via the SportsLine consensus. Before making any Cincinnati vs. Navy picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it ranks 31-19 among its highest-rated college football money-line picks since the start of the 2024 season.

Now, the model has set its sights on Navy against Cincinnati. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Cincinnati vs. Navy:

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How to choose between the Navy and Cincinnati

After 10,000 simulations, the SportsLine model is go under (54.5) of the total. The Under has scored in three of the last four meetings between the Midshipmen and Bearcats. The Under has also struck out in each of Navy’s last two games and in three of Cincinnati’s last five games.

The model has Navy quarterback Blake Horvath passing for over 150 yards, rushing for 100 yards and scoring two touchdowns, while Cincinnati running backs Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor will combine for over 100 yards and a score. The teams should total 53 points while the Under succeed in more than 60% of simulations.

The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits well over 60% of the time. You can see the model choice on SportsLine.

So who wins Cincinnati against Navy, and which side of the spread reaches more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Navy vs. Cincinnati spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.