Was Someone Insider Trading Right Before Trump’s Attack on Venezuela?

A suspicious new user on the Polymarket predictions market has just placed bets on the Trump administration’s military strikes against Venezuela.

The account, created on December 27, bet on only two things: the American invasion of Venezuela and the fact that its president, Nicolas Maduro, would be forced to leave power before January 31. The user bet $35,000 when the market estimated the probability of intervention in Venezuela at only 6 percent.

Thanks to their very lucky bets, they won over $400,000 in less than a day.

The timing of the betting on the account – and its creation – is certainly suspect. According to reportsU.S. military officials initially discussed bombing Venezuela on Christmas Day, but changed course after deciding to continue airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria. In the days after Christmas, authorities delayed the attacks due to weather conditions.

Asset announcement his strikes in Venezuela and his kidnapping of Maduro and his wife early Saturday morning. While he did a good job of preventing the attack from being leaked to the media, it appears that one member of his team had no problem leaking the news to Polymarket and getting a little richer in the process.