It’s Do or Don’t Time in the NFL

Greetings from the sports office located somewhere below the main deck of the Good Pirate Ship RedState. Sammy the Shark and Karl the Kraken assure me that they have been working hard during my unplanned absence, bringing you non-stop coverage of the latest sporting developments…

Something tells me I’m going to have to call HR one of these days.

Anyway, looking at today’s headlines (January 3, 2026 — in case you weren’t aware, there was some action in Venezuela) reminds me of a t-shirt I once saw at a NASCAR race. It depicted the silhouette of an American soldier and bore the inscription “They are risking their lives so that we can speak.” It would be difficult to find truer words.

Sports, when approached correctly, can be fun. It’s not a matter of life and death, although some Boston Red Sox fans have confirmed it, I know they are much bigger than that. Especially when the New York Yankees are in town.

With the above in mind, take a look at the NFL. Although the playoffs don’t officially begin until the weekend of January 10, for all intents and purposes they begin on January 3 with the Carolina Panthers visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Carolina triumphs, it will win the NFC South and host a first-round playoff game next weekend, while Tampa Bay will reserve a start time for the same period. If the Buccaneers win, all eyes will turn to Georgia. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes – again, if they beat Carolina today; if they lose, their playoff plans enter the postmortem phase – rest on the New Orleans Saints’ victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta on Sunday, January 4.

This is where we break down the math. If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on January 3 and the Falcons beat the Saints on January 4, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Atlanta will all finish the season with a solid 8-9 record. (Slight tinge of sarcasm there.) The Panthers would then win the division as they beat the Falcons twice and the Buccaneers once during the regular season, thus having the best record against the other two teams. However, if Tampa Bay and New Orleans both win, the Buccaneers will win the division as they have a better record against common opponents than the Panthers. Glad we can clear this up for you, although I am now in dire need of an aspirin.

Well, putting the slide rules aside, there is still a game to play. The Panthers do just enough to win half the time, while the Buccaneers are reeling from a rash of injuries, with quarterback Baker Mayfield more beat up than most other teams overall. This game is guessing.

The other Saturday, January 3, 2026, playoff involvement notoriety match takes place at San Francisco Santa Clara, California, where the Seattle Seahawks call on the San Francisco 49ers. The winner takes the NFC West crown and the number one seed in the playoffs, earning a bye week next weekend.

Each team has a six-game winning streak. That said, Seattle was the more impressive of the two teams, with the 49ers’ final drive requiring a last-ditch effort at the goal line to thwart the Chicago Bears, who up until that point had spent much of the contest scoring at will. Weather could be a factor, as there is a high chance of strong winds and rain during the match. This could favor San Francisco, which has the luxury of giving the ball to Christian McCaffrey. This should be a great, hard-fought match.

And no, I’m not forgetting that the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off on Sunday night, January 4, with the winner taking the AFC North crown and the loser going home. We will come back to this later.

Have a good weekend everyone.

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