CFP prediction: Why Miami can return to glory, complete storybook run to national title
The Miami Hurricanes were ranked 18th when the College Football Playoff selection committee revealed its first set of rankings on Nov. 4, paving the way for the two-loss ACC team to advance to the CFP. But Miami remained focused on each opponent, and after racking up wins and slowly climbing the rankings, Mario Cristobal’s team received the final at-large bid for the 2025-26 CFP field, ranking in 10th place in the committee’s final rankings.
Just making the bracket meant Miami made school history with its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, but after two rounds of play, expectations were adjusted significantly. This isn’t a Miami team that’s content to contend for titles. This is a group that can realize Cristobal’s wildest hopes and win the school’s first national championship since 2002.
And while such a suggestion might have been considered madness when those first rankings were released on Nov. 4, there’s no denying now that Miami arguably has a good chance of winning it all. The Hurricanes are the betting favorites in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss, and bettors at FanDuel Sportsbook have Miami at +340 to win it all, third in the standings just behind Indiana and Oregon.
Before we get into some of the more tangible reasons why Miami may be the last team standing this season, it’s worth mentioning how history and circumstance set up what could be a veritable storybook for a program that’s brimming with decades of storied history in college football. Miami, of course, hasn’t been on a stage this big with title opportunities this close since a controversial pass interference penalty against Ohio State in the BCS national championship game at the Fiesta Bowl in 2001-02.
The Hurricanes tasted redemption by eliminating the Buckeyes in the quarterfinals, and they can now complete the cleanup with a win at Glendale in the semifinals. Winning the semifinals would also constitute one of the biggest nights of football in Miami football history, as the Hurricanes would then compete for the national championship in their backyard, on their home turf, with Hard Rock Stadium scheduled to host the title game on January 19. This team has played and won in Blacksburg, Pittsburgh, College Station and Dallas since its last home game on No. 15. The opportunity to return home more than two months later with the game’s biggest prize on the line would be a historic moment for Miami football, and given what we’ve seen from this team and what lies ahead, it’s absolutely what’s expected.
So, with the vibes properly addressed, let’s get into the more football-specific reasons why Miami can win its next two games and win the national championship.
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The best defensive front still standing
With 12 sacks in its two College Football Playoff victories, Miami has now moved into first place in the nation in sacks (46) and defensive pressures (220) while maintaining a top-10 pressure rate (40.5%) on the season. Mario Cristobal built this team’s identity along the trenches with elite talent in both lines of scrimmage, but the wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State were notable for how the defense consistently won snaps with pressure on the quarterback on key downs, but also routine running stops that prevented both opponents from getting into any type of rhythm on offense. Texas A&M was held to just 89 rushing yards on 35 attempts (2.54 yards per attempt) in the 10-3 first-round win, then Ohio State managed even less with 45 yards on 24 attempts (1.88 yards per attempt). Although the Buckeyes may have wanted to be more balanced, they were forced to throw the ball 35 times to account for their ground struggles and the early deficit created by Miami’s hot start.
It’s a recipe for success with a group that’s packed with game-changing talent from start to finish. Reuben Bain has long been a leader for Miami, the blue-chip local star whose talent was evident from day one. He’s backed that talent up with a relentless work ethic that manifests in his pass rush, and even when teams dedicate extra blockers, he’s constantly fighting his way to make the quarterback lose. Of course, teams can’t pay too much attention to Bain, because on the other side is Akheem Mesidor, who leads the team in sacks with 10.5 and has 3.5 sacks here in the CFP. Mesidor transferred from West Virginia ahead of the 2022 season to be part of Cristobal’s first team, and now the sixth-year senior has nearly accomplished his goal of helping Miami return to the promised land. In between, you have senior David Blay and junior Ahmad Moton, a pair of 300-pound defensive tackles who eat up space and squeeze the pocket to allow these elite rushers to feast.
Stopping teams on first downs with excellent run defense sets up third-and-long scenarios in which Bain and Mesidor can destroy the timing for obvious handoffs. It’s a proven way to win football games that every defense hopes to execute, but not every defense has the kind of experience and talent like Miami with the best defensive front left in the playoffs.
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Battle-tested resilience
Miami had the toughest run in the College Football Playoff among the four remaining teams, and in the two victories, the team found great strength in its resilience. Playing on the road against No. 7 seed Texas A&M and then No. 2 seed Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl represents the tougher road in terms of seeding, but both opponents also showcased matchups of talent and athleticism for Miami’s star-studded roster. While Oregon and Ole Miss began their CFP campaigns with Group of Five opponents and Indiana earned a bye to the quarterfinals, Miami had to find itself in uncomfortable situations as an underdog twice and emerged victorious both times. Against the Aggies, it was the team’s ability to recover from a potentially devastating fumble in the fourth quarter to get the scores and stops needed to win. Then, in the upset win over Ohio State, the Hurricanes were able to hold on and defend their early lead against each of the Buckeyes’ comeback efforts.
Great confidence is built through these experiences that can prove invaluable, and Miami’s players have seen a competitive advantage through their survival of the wars of a schedule that includes the toughest course in the CFP but also began with a victory against Notre Dame. The Hurricanes had six wins against teams ranked in the top 25 at the time of the game, and with each of those wins, they continued to build even more confidence that they were a championship team.
Revolutionary athleticism on both sides of the ball
With just 34 combined points in two CFP wins, Miami’s offense hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard so far in the postseason. But even though there’s an absence of production, there’s no shortage of game-changing plays as these heavyweight fights are often determined by one or two moments when elite athleticism surfaces. At this point in the playoffs, the Hurricanes aren’t going to overwhelm any opponent with talent, but the ability for that talent to break free when the opportunity arises is unique with this Miami roster.
It’s the kind of game-changing athleticism we see when running back Mark Fletcher breaks loose for a 56-yard run against Texas A&M to set up the only touchdown of the game for either team, or when defensive back Keionte Scott jumps the route to pick off Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, then explodes 72 yards the other way for a momentum-building defensive touchdown. There’s obvious, instant athleticism with star freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney, and while he’s been mostly kept in check by Ohio State’s defense, the commitment to stopping the CBS Sports Freshman of the Year has sparked more opportunities for CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion. Add in the aforementioned pass rush duo of Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, as well as some absolute gems of the transfer portal like safety Jakobe Thomas and linebacker Mo Touré, and what you find is a group that has been well-evaluated and well-developed to not have an athletic advantage over anyone, even on the game’s biggest stages.
Miami regularly has players on its roster who were expected to be elite coming out of high school, but this 2025 Hurricanes team is the group that actually produced results that matched the projections on paper and in many ways exceeded the expectations of some of these players coming out of high school. Building a high-level roster in the modern era requires both a commitment to high school recruiting, but also the ability to evaluate the transfer portal to fill out the right pieces. Mario Cristobal and his staff have hit it out of the park with this team, blending both local talent and elite athleticism out of the transfer portal to field a team that is two wins away from winning a national championship.
