Average nationwide gas prices will dip below $3 per gallon this year, GasBuddy projects
For the first time since 2020, the average annual gasoline price is expected to fall below $3 per gallon in 2026, price tracking group GasBuddy said in a new report Tuesday.
At $2.97, GasBuddy’s projected average for the year is 13 cents lower than the national average gallon price in 2025, which was $3.10.
“The world spent years recovering from the economic blow of the pandemic and the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the situation has quietly improved since 2022,” Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of oil analysis, said in a statement.
GasBuddy calculated the average by determining a monthly price range, averaging it, and then taking the 12-month average. The full results have been included in the group’s Fuel Price Outlook for 2026 report.
The last year where average annual gas prices nationwide were as low as GasBuddy projects for that year was 2020, when the Covid pandemic forced millions of Americans to work from home and in largely virtual schools.
That year, the average price of unleaded gasoline nationwide was $2.17 per gallon, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
GasBuddy also predicts that U.S. households will spend less on average on gasoline this year than the year just ended. At $2,083, the annual projection is well below the average domestic gas price in 2022, which was $2,715.
“It’s not a return to ultra-cheap fuel, but for the first time in a long time the wind is clearly at the drivers’ backs,” De Haan said. “If the market avoids major surprises, sustained averages below $3 per gallon could become commonplace over the coming year.”
As of Tuesday, the average gas price nationwide was $2.79 per gallon, according to GasBuddy’s real-time measurement. This figure is slightly lower than the group’s projection for average fuel prices for January.
In contrast, average diesel prices nationwide are expected to remain above the $3 per gallon mark this year. The group projects an average of $3.55 for diesel for the year, just shy of last year’s national average of $3.62 per gallon, GasBuddy said.
Under the expected year-over-year price decline, there will still be variability due to factors “related to seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, hurricane season and ongoing geopolitical risks,” GasBuddy wrote in the release.
The recent US attack on Venezuela, which has huge crude oil reserves, illustrates the type of geopolitical risk factors that could impact gas prices later in the year.
After capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife and taking them to the United States to stand trial, President Donald Trump said U.S. oil companies would invest billions in rebuilding Venezuela’s crumbling oil infrastructure to exploit the country’s reserves.
However, the events taking place in Venezuela will not immediately change anything for consumers at the pump.
“A lot of Americans may think there’s going to be some sort of overnight improvement, or even a weekly or monthly improvement in Venezuela’s oil production, but it’s actually a clock that’s going to run much slower,” De Haan told NBC News.
“Gas prices almost always start to rise in the spring,” he added. “What’s happening in Venezuela is not going to stop this seasonal trend.”
