NFL playoff predictions: who will seize a wide-open Super Bowl race? | NFL
The team we’ll miss most in the playoffs
Melissa is right about the Lions (see below), but what about the Dallas Cowboys? Their defense was nauseating, and no one wants a playoff weekend ruined watching that. But their attack was electric. They finished fifth in the league in EPA/play during the regular season. And with Dak Prescott, a solid o-line and George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, they had the potential to be down 30 points in any playoff group. If they had snuck in and managed to knock out a top seed, that would have convinced Jerry Jones that he was on the right track. And nothing is funnier than Jones not realizing that the reason Dallas is stuck is the reflection in his mirror. Olivier Connolly
Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has set the NFL’s January rhythm for nearly a decade. With his torn ACL punctuating the Chiefs’ annus horribilis, the playoffs lost their creative force and familiar point of reference, leaving this year’s tournament the most wide-open in recent memory. Bryan Armen Graham
Detroit Lions. No defenseman in the playoffs disrupts a game like Aidan Hutchinson, who is having a career season. Although the Lions have regressed in some areas this season, they have a collection of dynamic playmakers. Their four losses to playoff teams since November have each been by less than a score, highlighting Detroit’s competitiveness. Melissa Jacobs
Joe Burrow, a finesse quarterback and two dynamite receivers – Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – is someone you’d want to face this season’s best. This trio is what the playoffs need, too bad for the rest of the group. Cincinnati Bengals. Graham Searles
Top-seeded team at risk of exiting early
The gap between the No. 2 seed and the No. 7 seed in the NFC is slim. And the Chicago Bear depend on turnovers to get off the court on defense. Their four-man group, the key to playoff success, ranks 31st in the league in pressure rate. And has the slowest average pressure time. Along with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson, they make a fun, explosive team – and a joy to watch. But relying on turnover to survive is rarely sustainable. OC
New England Patriots. Drake Maye has played at an MVP level, but a 14-3 record built on a soft schedule can flatter to the point of deception. In the playoffs, protection issues and a lack of battle-proven weapons could quickly surface against a physical, well-coached opponent with a disruptive pass rush. BAG
THE Chicago Bear experienced a renaissance during Johnson’s first year in charge. He transformed Williams, giving the offense a nifty playbook, and is living his best life as a result. This is comparable to Jim Harbaugh’s first year in San Francisco, with one exception. Have you seen Chicago’s defense? 24.4 points allowed per game is the most allowed to any team in the playoffs. MJ
Denver Broncos. Sean Payton was happy that his offense avoided turning the ball over while scoring just enough to let his monstrous defense win. This is a great plan against weaker opponents (only New England had a softer schedule this season). But when the Broncos faced a Super Bowl contender, the Jaguars, last month, they came up short. If the Broncos face the Texans, who are armed with a defense better than Denver or Jacksonville’s, they will test in the divisional round whether the Jags’ loss was the Broncos’ true level or an aberration. GS
Long chance of winning
What counts as a long shot this season? No team feels complete. Even #1 seeds have some pretty pronounced defects. But let’s go with the Houston Texans. They have a dominant passing four, the mark of Super Bowl champions. There is a world in which offense is good enough to keep games close, with CJ Stroud taking over in key spots and setting up a legacy. OC
Los Angeles Chargers. They may have slipped in as a No. 7 seed, but a Jim Harbaugh team with an elite quarterback is never a comfortable draw. The Chargers’ combination of coaching experience and high-end quarterback play gives them real spoiler potential in an AFC bracket ripe for disruption. BAG
It’s weird to consider the Buffalo Bills This is far from the case, but they are the No. 6 seed and nothing is expected for this season. The road to the Super Bowl will be tougher than ever, starting with the fact that Buffalo hasn’t won a playoff game on the road since the 1992 season. This weekend, the Bills travel to Jacksonville – the NFL’s hottest team – with virtually no notable receivers, an inept run defense and major issues with their running game. But they have Josh Allen and plenty of playoff experience. Other AFC teams look better on paper, but the playoffs are a whole different ball game. MJ
THE Pittsburgh Steelers have been difficult at times this season, so they could easily catch fire. But the returning DK Metcalf could dominate if Aaron Rodgers can give his best. The Steelers, however, have a clearer X-factor in head coach Mike Tomlin’s experience. He can galvanize a defense that has sometimes been very good. GS
Most important player of these playoffs
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. The AFC is wide open. But the Bills are rolling with the best and most proven player in the business (with apologies to Maye, who should be this year’s MVP). The bills are imperfect; they were horrible in the first half of the games and played at championship level in the second half; their run defense is a sieve; and they have never won a road playoff game (0-5) with Sean McDermott as head coach. But if they want to win multiple rounds, it will be Allen who reminds us that he is the best all-around player in the league. OC
Lane Johnson, RT, Philadelphia Eagles. The first-ballot Hall of Famer is Philadelphia’s best player in over a decade; the Eagles are 110-57-1 (.658) when he plays and 18-27 (.400) when he doesn’t. Expected to return from a Lisfranc sprain that has kept him sidelined since November, his presence (if truly healthy) stabilizes everything from protecting Jalen Hurts to what has been an inconsistent running game, making him the clearest swing factor in the Eagles’ new offering. BAG
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks. Will the playoff pumpkin return for Darnold? It was around this time last year that Darnold, then the Vikings’ quarterback, had his worst performance of the season in the wild card round. Darnold was fired nine on several occasions, several of them came when he held the ball too long. Darnold was another gem of the regular season this time around, surpassing 4,000 yards and shining when it mattered most. He did, however, throw 14 interceptions, third behind Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith. He’ll need to step up his efforts in the postseason if he wants to dispel the nagging doubts surrounding his game. MJ
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. Back-to-back epic wins in December against the Bengals and Patriots highlighted just how well Buffalo’s talisman can pull them out of the mud. No lead is safe with Allen at full throttle. GS
AFC Championship Game
Jaguars vs. Texans. OC
Jaguars vs. Broncos. BAG
“The Broncos vs. the Bills”. MJ
Patriots vs. Texans. GS
NFC Championship Game
Rams against eagles. OC
Rams vs. Seahawks. BAG
Rams against eagles. MJ
Seahawks vs. Eagles. GS
Your Super Bowl champion will be…
Rams vs. Jaguars. Los Angeles has all the ingredients to win the playoffs: an MVP-level quarterback, a dynamic pass rush, elite coaching and a quality offensive line. They have fewer question marks than any team in the field. THE only the flaws are in their secondary and on special teams. But they are now healthier and have replaced their special teams coordinator. Moreover, no other team can win in such varied ways. If it’s a stone fight, they have the defensive front. If it’s a shootout, they have the attacking weapons. It’s tough to pick against the Seahawks – and a Jags title would be exceptional – but the Rams are the more complete team. OC
Jaguars vs. Rams. Trevor Lawrence caps off Jacksonville’s rapid rise by matching and then passing Matthew Stafford when it matters most. In a Super Bowl decided by the margins, the Jaguars’ defense and balance provided late separation, confirming this run as a breakthrough rather than a premature finish. Jason Mendoza is delighted. BAG
Rams against the Broncos. At their best, the Rams dominate on both sides of the ball. Stafford is playing the best football of his life. Sean McVay is used to winning tough playoff games on the road. Denver will be at home until the craziness of Super Bowl week, which can rock even great teams. The Rams are also getting back key players at the right time, including LT Alaric Jackson and WR Davante Adams. But ultimately, it will be the Rams’ underrated defense that holds the Broncos back. MJ
Patriots vs. Seahawks. Chaos will take over the playoffs. We have to after the crazy 18 weeks we have just witnessed. And yet, the body of work these franchises have done inspires confidence that they can fight through the rubble. Seattle runs a defense nasty enough to win it all while New England is fortunate to have a diamond quarterback in Maye who leads the most explosive passing attack in the NFL. It would be a spectacular chess match, which likely MVP Maye would conquer. GS
