Odds, early bets for NFL divisional round: Seahawks favored vs. 49ers, expect Rams-Bears to go over total

The NFL wild-card round certainly lived up to its name.

The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks – top seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively – will see action next weekend in the Divisional Round after earning first-round byes.

In the AFC, the Broncos will face the visiting Buffalo Bills, who escaped a wild finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars who scored four touchdowns during a back-and-forth fourth quarter.

The Patriots eliminated the Los Angeles Chargers and New England will host the Houston Texans.

In the NFC, the Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers, who scored the final 13 points in their opening round with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, to earn the victory.

The Bears erased an 18-point deficit against the Green Bay Packers in their wild-card game, and Chicago will host the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams were able to overtake the Carolina Panthers on a Matthew Stafford touchdown pass with 38 seconds left.

Here’s a look at the odds for each match in the divisional round, with early reactions and bets from Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado and Seth Walder.

Note: Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

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BUF-DEN | SF-SEA | HOU-NE | LAR-CHI

(6) Buffalo Bills -1.5 vs. (1) Denver Broncos

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Line movement: Broncos open -1.5

Money line: Bills (-118); Broncos (-102)
Total: 46.5; Open: 46.5
FPI favorite: Broncos 0.3 with 50% probability of winning the game

Betting notes

• The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round last season, but that game was played in Buffalo.

• The Broncos are 3-9 ATS as favorites this season.

(6) San Francisco 49ers vs. (1) Seattle Seahawks -7
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Money line: Seahawks (-275); 49ers (+275)
Total: 45.5; Open: 46.5
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 3.7 with a 60.0% probability of winning the game

Walder’s first bet: total points UNDER 46.5 (-110)

It’s not just because the Week 18 contest between these teams ended with a total of 16 points scored. I’m more focused on the fact that Sam Darnold has been a completely different quarterback since Week 11. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Darnold led the league in QBR. Weeks 11 to 18? He placed 27th (!), ahead of only Geno Smith, Shedeur Sanders and Brady Cook. The 49ers will play a lot of nickel, even against a heavy personnel, inviting Seattle to show up. I expect the Seahawks to oblige and have a lot of success as well. But succeeding in the run earns far fewer points than succeeding in the pass. And with the Seahawks defense fully capable of slowing or stopping the 49ers (sans George Kittle), I’ll happily take the under.
Last week: Packers-Bears over 45.5 (total points: 58)

Moody’s First Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards (+137)

Smith-Njigba enters this rematch with confidence after being a focal point in Seattle’s win over San Francisco in Week 18. Seattle is rested, playing at home and facing a 49ers defense might be shorthanded again, and Smith-Njigba has already shown he can produce against San Francisco’s coverage. This provides another place where the Seahawks lean on their top receiver, who has averaged 9.6 targets and 105.5 receiving yards per game this season, in a high-stakes matchup against a division rival.

(5) Houston Texans and (2) New England Patriots -3
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)

Money line: Patriots (-155), Texans (+130)
Total: 41.5; Open: 41.5

Betting notes

• The Patriots were 12-5 ATS in the regular season, tied for the best record in the NFL. Overs have gone 11-6 in Patriots games, tied for second-most. The Pats covered Sunday night against the Chargers, and the game fell under.

• New England signal-caller Drake Maye is 9-3 ATS in his career as a favorite, including the playoffs (all this season).

(5) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. (2) Chicago Bears
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Money line: Rams (-192); Bear (+160)
Total: 51.5; Open: 51.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 4.4 with a 62% probability of winning the game

Bowen’s first bet: total points OVER 51.5 (-110)

The Rams and Bears have top 10 offenses, and I’m betting on the players in this matchup as well. Sean McVay and Ben Johnson will have answers on the call sheet, especially in the passing game, to create explosive plays. Take over.
Last week: Bears +1.5 vs. Packers (Bears won 31-27)

Maldonado’s first bet: total points OVER 51.5 (-110)

This happens if this game produces volatility. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will stay aggressive against a defense that doesn’t generate pressure, and Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams’ willingness to push throws invites short fields. Quick scores, mistakes and quick math.
Last week: Jaguars ML vs. Bills (Bills won 27-24)