Virginia vs. Louisville prediction, odds, spread: 2026 college basketball picks, best bets

The Virginia Cavaliers will visit the Louisville Cardinals on Tuesday’s college basketball schedule as each team plays their fifth game of the season against the ACC. No. 16 Virginia (14-2, 3-1 ACC) is riding a three-game winning streak, each by double digits, with the Cavs beating Stanford, 70-55, on Saturday. No. 20 Louisville (12-4, 2-2 ACC) bounced back from back-to-back losses with a 75-62 win over Boston College on Jan. 10. UVA leads the all-time series with a 24-7 record.

Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET from the KFC Yum! Central from Louisville, Ky. Louisville swept the two-game series last year. The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Louisville vs. Virginia odds, while the over/under is 154.5. Before making any Virginia vs. Louisville picks, check out men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and enters Week 11 a scorching 9-1 on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season. Anyone who followed his college basketball betting tips on sportsbooks and betting apps could have seen solid returns.

Today, the model has simulated Louisville vs. Virginia 10,000 times and just revealed its men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can now head over to SportsLine to see the model’s choices. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Virginia vs. Louisville:

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How to choose between Virginia and Louisville

After simulating Louisville vs. Virginia 10,000 times, SportsLine’s model is go under the total (154.5 points). If recent history is to be believed, the Under should bat with points to spare. Each of the last 10 meetings not only took place below 154.5 points, but none of them even reached 150 cumulative points. These 10 games only averaged 124.8 points.

Granted, most of them were run by former UVA coach Tony Bennett and his preferred slow tempo was implemented on the Cavaliers, but Virginia still ranks 262nd in the nation in tempo this season. The Under is 9-7 for Virginia, as is each of its last three games, and five of its last six games have been held. Louisville also has an Under record of 9-7, with each of its last three failing to reach the total either. The model projects a combined 152 points as the Under hits in nearly 60% of simulations.

The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see this pick on SportsLine.

So who does Virginia win against Louisville, and which side of the spread reaches well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Louisville vs. Virginia spread, all from the model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.