U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Rising for the First Time in Two Years—They Could Climb Far Higher

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rise for first time in two years – could rise even more

By Jackie Flynn Mogensen edited by Claire Cameron

After more than two years of progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the United States is on track to see an estimated increase of 2.4% in 2025 compared to 2024, according to a new report from the Rhodium Group. The findings indicate that the AI ​​data center and cryptocurrency industry’s energy costs are growing, with emissions from the electricity sector increasing by around 3.8% in 2025.

Colder than average winter months last year also increased demand for heating in buildings, increasing emissions by 6.8% compared to 2024.

“Based on historical and forecast sectoral consumption data, the largest source of increased electricity consumption was commercial buildings, where data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large customers increased electricity demand by 2.4%,” the analysts wrote in the report.

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And even though the transportation sector generated more greenhouse gases than any other sector in 2025, it saw virtually no increase in emissions levels — likely because there were more hybrid and electric vehicles on U.S. roads, the report claims.

Going forward, the Trump administration’s sweeping changes to U.S. energy policy and efforts to open more AI data centers will almost certainly hinder the country’s progress in reducing emissions, the report said. Last year, Rhodium analysts predicted that, under what was then the US political landscape, the country was on track to reduce its emissions between 38 and 56 percent, compared to 2005 levels, by 2035. Today, that estimate has fallen to a reduction of 26 to 35 percent by 2035.

“Our long-term outlook for U.S. GHG emissions has changed significantly over the past year,” Rhodium analysts write in the report.

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