Is global warming speeding up? Scientists call 2025’s heat is a ‘warning shot’ : NPR

A man rinses off with water in August after playing beach volleyball at the Ramlet al-Baida public beach in Beirut, Lebanon, on a sweltering day.

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Bilal Hussein/AP

WASHINGTON — Earth’s average temperature last year was among the three warmest on record, while the past three years indicate warming could accelerate, international climate monitoring teams reported.

Six science teams calculated that 2025 was behind 2024 and 2023, while two other groups – NASA and a joint US and UK team – said 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023. Officials from the World Meteorological Organization, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2023 and 2025 temperatures were so close – 0.04 degrees Fahrenheit difference – that’s pretty much a tie.

Last year, the average global temperature was 59.14 degrees Fahrenheit, 2.59 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than pre-industrial times, the World Meteorological Organization calculated, averaging the eight data sets. The temperature data used by most teams dates back to 1850.

The past three years have come close to the internationally agreed limit of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit of warming since the mid-19th century. This objective of limiting the rise in temperatures, set in Paris in 2015, will probably be exceeded by the end of this decade, scientists estimate.

When plotted on a graph, the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 “appear to be increasing,” said Russ Vose, NOAA climate monitoring manager. On average, these three years exceed the 2.7 degree mark, according to the European climate service Copernicus.

Rising global temperatures are intensifying heat waves and other extreme weather, putting people at risk and causing billions of dollars in damage. Weather monitoring teams warn that rising temperatures in 2025 are a dangerous sign of worsening storms, heat, floods and fires.

The Earth is warming at a faster rate

The past 11 years have been the 11 hottest years on record, climate monitoring groups have found.

“The last three years are indicative of accelerating warming. They are not consistent with the linear trend we have seen over the previous 50 years,” said Robert Rohde, chief scientist of Berkeley’s Earth Monitoring Group.

While Rohde said almost all of the warming was due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures over the past three years have been raised by a combination of less pollution from soot from ships that normally has a cooling effect, a spike in solar activity and possibly an underwater volcanic eruption in 2022.

Samantha Burgess, Copernicus service climate policy lead, said the main culprit is clear: the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

“Climate change is happening. It’s here. It’s affecting everyone everywhere and it’s our fault,” Burgess told the Associated Press.

Three teams – including NOAA and NASA – released their data on Wednesday, while the other teams released their information Tuesday evening. Copernicus and Japan use a combination of satellite data and computer simulations, while the other groups use ground and sea observations. The eight data sets were less than a tenth of a degree apart.

Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University who was not part of either team, called what is happening “another shot of warning” of a changing climate “where record or near-record global temperatures are the norm, not the exception.”

Paramedics provide help on July 1 to tourists and residents with an ambulance next to the historic Spanish Steps in Rome, Italy.

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Higher temperatures put people at risk

Burgess noted numerous heat waves in 2025 that broke local or national temperature records, also having significant effects on people’s bodies.

“When we look at a warmer world, we know that extreme events are becoming more frequent and more intense,” Burgess said, mentioning the Los Angeles wildfires of 2025. “When we have severe storms or floods, the rain is more intense.”

Berkeley Earth calculated that 770 million people – one in 12 people on the planet – experienced record annual heat, including 450 million in China. Other record-breaking hotspots included much of Australia, North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Antarctica, according to Copernicus. The continental United States experienced its fourth warmest year on record, NOAA found.

One of the main natural drivers of global temperatures is the El Niño/La Niña oscillation – a cyclical warming or cooling of the equatorial Pacific that changes the weather across much of the planet. Usually, a warm El Nino causes temperatures to rise and its reverse, La Nina, to lower temperatures.

Last year, there were two weak, cool La Ninas, so there was “a lot of the Earth’s surface that’s a little colder than it would be otherwise and that’s probably going to bring the temperature down a little bit,” NOAA’s Vose said.

An even warmer future awaits us

Some forecasts point to an El Niño phenomenon developing this year, but the situation remains unclear, meteorologists said. Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus’ climate service, said that when the next El Nino materializes, which he predicts within the next two years, it would likely result in a new annual temperature record.

Several climate monitoring groups predict that 2026 will be about as hot as 2025.

Looking ahead, Copernicus and Berkeley Earth have calculated that 2029 is the likely date when the planet’s long-term average will exceed the 2.7 degree threshold.

“A decade from now, when we are in the 2030s… the number of extreme events around the world will increase. The cost associated with the damages and impacts of these extreme events will be even worse,” Burgess said. “And we will look back with nostalgia to the mild climate of the mid-2020s.”